Winter is coming and Andy Burnham should be afraid. The lights could go out on his hopes of winning the next election.
The last thing Andy Burnham needs is blackouts, so he’d better brighten up (Image: Getty)
I don’t know if the PM is afraid of the dark, but he should be. Britain is facing one of its most perilous winters in decades, with increasingly urgent warnings of blackouts for the first time since the 1970s. In fact, it seems like we came dangerously close to one during June’s heatwave. If we can’t keep the lights on in the height of summer, imagine what a winter cold snap might bring. It should give Burnham nightmares. He needs to wake up to the threat.
The last time Britain suffered widespread power cuts was during the miners’ strikes of the 1970s, which forced the government to ration electricity and introduce the infamous three-day week. It was a national humiliation that helped bring down Edward Heath’s government. We haven’t experienced a repeat but that doesn’t mean we’re safe. MPs recently warned that Britain is now hostage to global events as the Middle East goes up in flames again.
In June, whistleblowers alleged serious failures at the National Energy System Operator (Neso). Neso denies energy supplies were at risk, but it recently introduced contingency measures to allow three-hour rolling blackouts. National Grid is now encouraging households to acquire six vital items should their power supply fail. As the world faces a terrifying energy shock, the UK is on the brink. Our energy policy has been a shambles for years, and Labour hasn’t even started to put it right. Quite the reverse.
As energy secretary, Ed Miliband prioritised net zero ideology and political posturing over energy security. His first step was to block new North Sea oil and gas drilling, making us one of the very few countries in the world to refuse to use our own natural resources. Yet we are happy to ship liquefied natural gas from Qatar and buy jet fuel from Vladimir Putin, funding his war machine.
We’re now waiting to see whether Burnham will green light the Rosebank oil field and Jackdaw gas field. He promised a more “pragmatic” approach, but so far all we’ve had is dithering. Burnham put off this vital decision until after the recent by-election in Holborn and St Pancras, to avoid handing the Green Party a stick to beat him with, that might secure a seat in Westminster for its leader Zack Polanski.
Labour won, but we still don’t have that decision. Jackdaw and Rosebank won’t magically solve Britain’s energy problems, but they’ll help. Jackdaw alone could produce enough gas to heat more than 1.4 million homes, and if Burnham gets moving, the gas could start flowing this winter, cutting our reliance on imports.
Incredibly, the Tories shut our largest gas storage facility, Rough, in 2017. Owner Centrica wants a decision and framework to unlock it. Miliband did nothing. Now Burnham is dithering again.
Britain has far lower storage capacity than its European neighbours. Around five to seven days of average winter demand, falling to just two to four days in an extreme cold snap. This leaves us exposed to sudden shortages and price spikes. That’s unforgivable.
Britain is already paying a heavy price for our energy nightmare, as our sky-high bills makes British industry completely uncompetitive, driving the de-industrialisation that Burnham has pledged to reverse. Climate change is a real concern but keeping the lights on and affordable power flowing must be the immediate priority. Both for Britons and for Burnham.
The Iran war has been threatening an oil shock bigger than the 1970s, which will in turn drive up inflation. Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries will make everything tighter. The world’s largest independent energy trader Vitol Energy has warned of oil hitting $200 a barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
A cold winter, disrupted supplies and soaring prices would be bad enough. Actual blackouts would be worse. They could disrupt hospitals, transport, communications and businesses, leaving the elderly and vulnerable shivering in their homes. The prospect of power cuts and rationing should terrify every household in Britain. This should terrify Burnham most of all. If the lights go out, his political future could look very black indeed.