The stakes couldn’t be higher as the PM considers whether to go to the country.
Andy Burnham has a big decision – but the opposition is split (Image: Getty)
As yet, we don’t know what he’ll do. Burnham is likely to be in two minds himself. Calling an early general election is a massive opportunity, but it’s also a mighty risk. Get it wrong, and his dream of being PM for 10 years could end almost before it’s begun. Yet some in Westminster reckon he may call an election for as soon as November 19, just two months away, and there are compelling reasons to do that.
Britain is walking into a winter energy crisis, as the Iran war drives up the oil price. If Burnham has cleared an election, he has five years to win voters back. A quick win would also give him the mandate he lacks, and allow him to ditch restrictive Labour manifesto pledges not to hike income tax, National Insurance and VAT. At which point, he can unleash a “socialist tax-and-spend blitz” and wreck the UK economy for good.
One big downside is that the nation has had a taste of Labour, making it harder to emulate Sir Keir Starmer‘s 2024 ‘loveless landslide’, which was largely a protest against the hated Tories. Many of his 400 or so Labour MPs may lose their seats, and Burnham will have their careers on his conscience. Burnham may be tempted to ride his luck though, as he did when standing in the Makerfield by-election, which swept him to Number 10.
When Burnham looks at the rival parties, he must fancy his chances. Kemi Badenoch may wipe the floor with him at Prime Minister’s Questions but the Tories still won’t clean up. Reform is benefiting from the small boats shambles, but Nigel Farage is currently bogged down in the crypto crisis. Green Party leader Zack Polanski’s star has faded, although it will shine brightly if he wins the upcoming Holborn and St Pancras by-election on October 8, and takes a seat in Westminster.
One thing might deter him. A trick that worked before, for the Tories. Former Labour leader Gordon Brown knows all about this, as does Burnham, who was an adviser at the time. After ousting Tony Blair as PM in 2007, Brown was himself preparing to call an early general election.
Then Tory chancellor George Osborne came up with a killer policy: raising the inheritance tax (IHT) threshold from £300,000 to £1million. The Daily Express launched its death tax crusade, and Brown lost his nerve. He was dubbed ‘Bottler Brown’ and next year the financial crisis finished him off. But the IHT pledge was the moment that sealed his fate.
Today, Badenoch has exactly the same trick available to her. In some respects it could be even more attractive. With the £325,000 nil-rate threshold frozen since 2009, IHT is hitting more and more families. From next year, most unused pension pots could become liable to IHT thanks to Rachel Reeves, driving bills still higher.
Promising to axe IHT altogether could win support for the Tories, but I’m not totally convinced. Labour would call it a tax break for the rich. Reform already has. Robert Jenrick dismissed it as a “desperate play” that would primarily benefit the wealthiest.
Which leaves just one more option. We now have two parties of the right. Some kind of Tory-Reform coalition could see off Burnham. He may retaliate by announcing his own pact with the Greens, but I doubt it will be as powerful.
But it might be the only way of preventing Burnham from sweeping all before him. Just one problem. Both Badenoch and Farage have ruled it out. Which gives Burnham another reason to go to the country, and fast. If the right is split, there’s nothing to stop him, and five more years of misery will follow. Or if Burnham has his way, 10 years.