Andy Burnham has a big decision – but the opposition is split (Image: Getty)

As yet, we don’t know what he’ll do. Burnham is likely to be in two minds himself. Calling an early general election is a massive opportunity, but it’s also a mighty risk. Get it wrong, and his dream of being PM for 10 years could end almost before it’s begun. Yet some in Westminster reckon he may call an election for as soon as November 19, just two months away, and there are compelling reasons to do that.

Britain is walking into a winter energy crisis, as the Iran war drives up the oil price. If Burnham has cleared an election, he has five years to win voters back. A quick win would also give him the mandate he lacks, and allow him to ditch restrictive Labour manifesto pledges not to hike income tax, National Insurance and VAT. At which point, he can unleash a “socialist tax-and-spend blitz” and wreck the UK economy for good.

One big downside is that the nation has had a taste of Labour, making it harder to emulate Sir Keir Starmer‘s 2024 ‘loveless landslide’, which was largely a protest against the hated Tories. Many of his 400 or so Labour MPs may lose their seats, and Burnham will have their careers on his conscience. Burnham may be tempted to ride his luck though, as he did when standing in the Makerfield by-election, which swept him to Number 10.

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When Burnham looks at the rival parties, he must fancy his chances. Kemi Badenoch may wipe the floor with him at Prime Minister’s Questions but the Tories still won’t clean up. Reform is benefiting from the small boats shambles, but Nigel Farage is currently bogged down in the crypto crisis. Green Party leader Zack Polanski’s star has faded, although it will shine brightly if he wins the upcoming Holborn and St Pancras by-election on October 8, and takes a seat in Westminster.

One thing might deter him. A trick that worked before, for the Tories. Former Labour leader Gordon Brown knows all about this, as does Burnham, who was an adviser at the time. After ousting Tony Blair as PM in 2007, Brown was himself preparing to call an early general election.

Then Tory chancellor George Osborne came up with a killer policy: raising the inheritance tax (IHT) threshold from £300,000 to £1million. The Daily Express launched its death tax crusade, and Brown lost his nerve. He was dubbed ‘Bottler Brown’ and next year the financial crisis finished him off. But the IHT pledge was the moment that sealed his fate.

Today, Badenoch has exactly the same trick available to her. In some respects it could be even more attractive. With the £325,000 nil-rate threshold frozen since 2009, IHT is hitting more and more families. From next year, most unused pension pots could become liable to IHT thanks to Rachel Reeves, driving bills still higher.

Promising to axe IHT altogether could win support for the Tories, but I’m not totally convinced. Labour would call it a tax break for the rich. Reform already has. Robert Jenrick dismissed it as a “desperate play” that would primarily benefit the wealthiest.

Which leaves just one more option. We now have two parties of the right. Some kind of Tory-Reform coalition could see off Burnham. He may retaliate by announcing his own pact with the Greens, but I doubt it will be as powerful.

But it might be the only way of preventing Burnham from sweeping all before him. Just one problem. Both Badenoch and Farage have ruled it out. Which gives Burnham another reason to go to the country, and fast. If the right is split, there’s nothing to stop him, and five more years of misery will follow. Or if Burnham has his way, 10 years.

Andy Burnham Plots Snap Election – What Could Actually Stop Him?

Speculation over a possible snap general election under Prime Minister Andy Burnham has intensified, with reports suggesting that Labour figures are preparing for the possibility of an early contest.

According to recent reports, some Labour MPs and peers believe Burnham could announce an election after Christmas, potentially leading to a vote early in the new year. The reports have not established that a decision has been made, however, and the government has not formally announced plans for a snap election.

The possibility is nevertheless significant because Burnham previously said, before entering Downing Street, that he would not call an early general election if he became prime minister. In June, while campaigning in the Makerfield by-election, he explicitly indicated that he did not intend to immediately send voters back to the polls.

That position now provides an important reference point for assessing the latest speculation.

The question is not simply whether Burnham might want an early mandate. It is also whether political circumstances, parliamentary considerations and the government’s economic position would make such a decision practical.

Reports of an early election

The latest speculation was reported by AOL in an article published on September 22, citing comments from the Daily Express’s political operation.

The report said Labour MPs and peers had suggested that Burnham could announce a snap election after Christmas, with voting potentially taking place early in the new year. It was presented as information from political insiders rather than as a confirmed government timetable.

That distinction matters.

A report that politicians are discussing an election is not the same as a formal decision by the prime minister.

Downing Street would ultimately have to determine whether an early election served the government’s political and legislative objectives. Burnham would also have to consider the risks of abandoning a parliamentary majority that Labour inherited from the 2024 general election.

Economic conditions would form another important part of the calculation.

The economic backdrop

Burnham’s government is preparing for a major Budget on October 28.

The fiscal situation is challenging. Reuters reported on September 22 that public-sector borrowing reached £18.3 billion in August, compared with an official forecast of £15.5 billion. Cumulative borrowing for the financial year had reached £77.3 billion, £8.1 billion above the Office for Budget Responsibility’s previous expectation.

The same report said the government’s estimated fiscal headroom had fallen from around £24 billion in March to approximately £10 billion.

That creates a difficult environment for any government contemplating a major political event.

Burnham has committed to Labour’s existing fiscal rules and has ruled out increases in several major taxes, including income tax, VAT, corporation tax and National Insurance. But he has also declined to rule out every possible tax increase, leaving the Chancellor with difficult choices before the October Budget.

The Budget could therefore become an important political moment.

If the government’s economic programme changes significantly, the political debate surrounding an early election could change with it.

The promise not to call one

One of the most interesting aspects of the current speculation is Burnham’s previous position.

Before becoming prime minister, he was asked directly about the possibility of an early general election.

His answer was broadly that voters had already experienced enough campaigning and that he would not immediately call another election if he entered Downing Street.

The Guardian reported at the time that Burnham had signalled there would be no snap election if he replaced Keir Starmer.

The Independent similarly reported in June that a spokesperson for Burnham had explicitly ruled out an early general election if he became prime minister.

That does not legally prevent a later change of position.

Circumstances can change, governments can reconsider their priorities and political leaders can alter their plans.

But it means that any move towards an early election would represent a significant departure from the position Burnham stated publicly before taking office.

The parliamentary question

A prime minister does not simply decide an election date in isolation.

Under Britain’s constitutional arrangements, the prime minister can request a dissolution of Parliament from the monarch, subject to the statutory framework governing the maximum life of a Parliament.

An early election therefore requires a political decision to seek dissolution rather than simply an announcement that voting will take place.

That makes Parliament an important constraint, even though a government with a substantial working majority has considerable room to manoeuvre.

Labour’s parliamentary position is therefore relevant.

A snap election could provide a new mandate, but it could also expose the government to electoral risk. The 2024 Labour majority was exceptionally large, meaning that any early contest would take place against a very different political landscape from the one that produced that majority.

The rise of smaller parties and changing voting patterns would make an early election difficult to treat as a straightforward repeat of 2024.

Reform and the fragmented political landscape

Reform UK is one of the major factors in current discussions about Britain’s electoral landscape.

Recent elections and polling have demonstrated that support is more fragmented than the traditional two-party model suggests.

The possibility of a snap election has therefore prompted other parties to prepare.

The Liberal Democrats, for example, have already begun work on a manifesto in anticipation of a possible early election. Party leader Ed Davey said in September that preparations were necessary even though no election had been called.

That does not mean an election is imminent.

It does demonstrate that opposition parties are treating the possibility seriously enough to make contingency plans.

For Labour, the existence of multiple competing parties could produce different results from those suggested by national vote shares alone because Britain’s first-past-the-post system converts votes into parliamentary seats constituency by constituency.

That makes any attempt to predict the consequences of an early election particularly uncertain.

Brexit could also become an issue

Another potentially important dividing line is Britain’s relationship with the European Union.

Burnham recently declined to rule out the possibility that Labour could eventually campaign on rejoining the European Union.

The Guardian reported on September 22 that he had opened the door to the possibility of including a future EU-rejoining commitment in a Labour manifesto, while stressing that his immediate focus remained closer UK-EU relations and trade.

This is significant because Burnham’s position has evolved over time.

Before becoming prime minister, he had argued that the UK should eventually seek closer relations with Europe while also saying that another Brexit referendum should not simply be rerun.

Any attempt to make Britain’s relationship with the EU a central electoral issue could therefore produce a substantial debate inside and outside Labour.

But there is no evidence that a snap election would necessarily be fought primarily on Brexit.

So what could stop an early election?

The simplest answer is that political circumstances could make the decision unattractive or impractical.

An election is not merely a mechanism for obtaining a fresh mandate. It carries the possibility of changing the parliamentary balance.

The October Budget is therefore particularly important.

The government must first demonstrate how it intends to deal with borrowing, public services, investment, taxation and fiscal rules. The House of Lords Library noted that the government’s formal fiscal plans are scheduled for the October 28 Budget and that the government has committed itself to meeting its fiscal rules.

Economic turbulence could consequently make timing more complicated.

So could an unexpected parliamentary crisis, a major policy dispute or a change in public opinion.

None of these factors automatically prevents a prime minister from seeking an election. They simply affect the political calculation surrounding such a decision.

A changed position?

The central issue, then, is not whether Burnham is legally capable of seeking an early election.

He is.

The more important question is whether he would choose to abandon the position he stated before becoming prime minister.

At present, reports of a possible post-Christmas election remain reports rather than an official announcement.

Burnham’s government has important immediate priorities: the October Budget, fiscal management, public services, economic policy and its developing relationship with the European Union.

His government is also operating in a political environment in which Labour, Reform UK, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Greens are competing for support across different parts of Britain.

An early election would place all of those issues before voters at once.

For now, the evidence supports a distinction between preparation and decision.

Opposition parties preparing for a possible election does not mean one has been called. Reports from Labour insiders do not constitute an official timetable. And Burnham’s previous commitment not to call an immediate election remains part of the public record.

The strongest practical constraints are therefore political rather than simply legal: the government’s economic position, its parliamentary calculations, the results of the October Budget and the changing electoral landscape.

If Burnham eventually chooses an early election, the decision would represent a major change from the position he expressed before entering Downing Street.

Until such a decision is formally announced, however, the question remains one of political speculation rather than established fact.

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