Watch out, Andy Burnham is winning victories where it matters (Image: Getty)
The PM’s recent rollcall of include stupidly putting social security above the defence of the realm, stumbling into the Manchester City scandal, and being publicly upbraided by MI5 for claiming Russia influenced the Brexit referendum result. But Burnham’s gaffes mask the fact that his broader strategy is working rather nicely right now. It could put him in the box seat if he calls a snap election, as many expect.
Burnham had a big win last week when Labour retained Keir Starmer‘s former parliamentary seat in the St Pancras and Holborn by-election. Frankly, Labour doesn’t need another backbench MP. It has 403 and most are more trouble than they’re worth. But it really didn’t want Green Party leader Zack Polanski rocking up at Westminster on the back of a spectacular victory. That would have been a slap in the face for Burnham and put a stop to his honeymoon.
The Greens hoovered up support from Lefties furious over Keir Starmer’s Gaza policy, but now they’re the ones tearing themselves apart. Hard-left activists, the sort who flocked to Labour under Jeremy Corbyn, brought their anti-Israel obsessions with them, plunging the Greens into an existential crisis.
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Their stance that “Zionism is racism” effectively denies Israel’s right to exist, while exposing Polanski’s weakness in failing to stand up to it. The Greens are descending into civil war as the old guard struggles to save the party from the Corbynites, anti-semites and Islamists. Zack Polanski is on resignation watch. It’s an ugly spectacle, but a golden opportunity for Burnham.
Until recently, there was a growing assumption that two-party politics was dead and the next government could only be formed through some kind of alliance. That raised the terrifying prospect of a Labour-Green-Lib Dem coalition dragging Britain even further towards the left, while shutting out the right.
Burnham has every reason to want that prospect buried, and he’s taking action. Labour councils who share power with the Greens have been told to terminate agreements unless they condemn the “Zionism is racism” policy. Why share when there’s a chance you can grab it all for yourself?
Burnham can now position himself as the undisputed champion of the left, picking up Green cast-offs while raiding the dwindling ranks of disillusioned Lib Dem voters.
The PM is blowing all the Leftie dog whistles. Closer alignment with the EU, floating another Brexit referendum, rail and water nationalisation, more power for the unions and a preference for social security spending over defence. It may sound like madness to many of us, but left-wing voters have been crying out for this ever since Margaret Thatcher burst their bubble. Burnham understands his base and is giving it what they want.
And there’s another casualty: Angela Rayner. She’s the darling of Labour’s left, keeping the flame of traditional, union-friendly, working-class politics burning under Starmer. Sadly for Red Ange, Burnham is now trampling all over her territory. No wonder she’s resorted to attacking Shabana Mahmood.
It also helps that Burnham is a man, and a beery, blokey man to boot. Labour can now leave the whole lady boss thing to the Tories, and stay in their traditional comfort zone.
None of this guarantees Burnham an election victory. But Labour is edging it in the polls, the Greens are self-combusting and a Tory-Reform alliance looks off the cards, as Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage publicly slug it out.
If two-party politics really is back, Burnham could be the biggest beneficiary. He’s on course to own the entire left, while the right tear themselves in two. That snap election must look tempting.
Andy Burnham Just Crushed His Biggest Rival – Even Angela Rayner Can’t Touch Him Now
Andy Burnham appears to have strengthened his position at the centre of British politics, with a combination of improved polling, a crucial by-election result and a changing political landscape giving his premiership fresh momentum. But while some commentators believe his rise has left potential rivals such as Angela Rayner with less room to manoeuvre, the reality inside the Labour Party is more complicated.
The prime minister’s political strategy has begun to reshape the debate about Labour’s future. After years of difficult headlines and declining public confidence under the previous leadership, Burnham is attempting to establish a new direction for the party, combining a stronger emphasis on economic growth with policies intended to address household costs and regional inequality.
His approach has generated renewed attention from political commentators, particularly after Labour’s annual conference and a series of opinion polls suggesting that the party’s position has improved since he became prime minister. The Independent reported on 6 October that Labour’s polling average had risen by around seven percentage points after Burnham took office, although the party’s support remained far from overwhelming. <Cite refs={[“turn691456search4″,”turn691456search5”]} />
For Burnham, the immediate challenge is to turn that improvement into lasting public confidence. For Rayner and other senior Labour figures, it is to establish how much influence they can retain within a government whose leader is determined to put his own stamp on the party.
A By-Election Victory Strengthens Burnham’s Position
One of the most important developments for Burnham has been Labour’s retention of the Holborn and St Pancras parliamentary seat previously held by Keir Starmer.
The result offered the new prime minister an opportunity to demonstrate that Labour could maintain its support despite the political upheaval surrounding the change of leadership. It also helped counter arguments that the party was losing its grip on voters who had supported it in the previous general election.
A by-election is never a complete measure of national opinion. Local circumstances, candidate selection, turnout and the performance of rival parties can all influence the result. Nevertheless, retaining a prominent seat provides a government with a useful opportunity to demonstrate stability at a moment when opponents are searching for signs of weakness.
Burnham’s supporters can argue that the result gives Labour breathing space while the new administration establishes its priorities.
But one victory does not settle the broader political contest. Labour still faces competition from Reform UK, the Conservatives and the Greens, while voters continue to judge the government on living standards, public services and the economy.
The result is therefore better understood as a useful political development for Burnham than as proof that his rivals have been defeated.
The Polling Picture Has Changed
The more significant development may be the movement in opinion polls since Burnham took over the Labour leadership and entered Downing Street.
A report by The Independent on 6 October described a noticeable improvement in Labour’s polling position, with YouGov recording the party five points ahead of Reform UK in one survey. The report suggested that Burnham’s conference speech had helped consolidate the party’s support. Other polling cited in the same analysis also indicated an improvement. <Cite refs={[“turn691456search4″,”turn691456search5”]} />
The figures offer an encouraging sign for Labour, but they need to be interpreted carefully. Individual polls can differ according to methodology, fieldwork dates and the questions asked. A short-term rise in support does not automatically translate into greater confidence across the entire electorate.
Burnham also faces the difficulty of maintaining expectations. When a new leader arrives with a clear promise of change, voters may initially welcome the prospect of a different approach. That goodwill can disappear if the government struggles to deliver tangible improvements.
The prime minister will therefore need to show that his programme can produce practical results, particularly on household bills, economic growth, housing and the quality of public services.
If voters begin to associate his government with measurable progress, the early improvement in Labour’s position could become more durable. If the promised changes fail to materialise, the political benefits could prove temporary.
Why Angela Rayner Remains Important
Angela Rayner remains one of Labour’s most recognisable figures, with a long-standing connection to the party’s trade union movement and its more traditional working-class base.
Her political position has changed over time, but she continues to have influence within Labour. Under Burnham’s government, she has returned to a senior ministerial role as housing secretary, where she is expected to help deliver the administration’s plans for housebuilding and housing reform. ITV’s account of Burnham’s cabinet appointments identified housing as one of the areas in which Rayner would have a central responsibility. <Cite refs={[“turn691456search7”]} />
That appointment makes it difficult to argue that Rayner has simply been pushed aside. Instead, she occupies a position where her performance will be judged on whether the government can make progress on a problem that has affected successive administrations.
Housing is particularly important because the shortage of affordable homes affects younger people, families, renters and communities across the country. Burnham has spoken about expanding housebuilding, including a major council housing programme. Rayner’s role gives her an opportunity to influence the delivery of those commitments.
At the same time, being a senior minister carries political risks. If the government’s housing ambitions are delayed or fail to meet public expectations, the department could become a source of criticism. If reforms make a visible difference, Rayner could strengthen her own reputation.
The relationship between the prime minister and his housing secretary is therefore not necessarily a straightforward contest. They may have different political strengths, but their success in government is also interconnected.
Burnham Is Moving Into Rayner’s Political Territory
Some commentators argue that Burnham’s strategy has reduced the space available for Rayner to distinguish herself within Labour.
Rayner has traditionally been associated with trade unions, workers’ rights, social mobility and a more openly left-wing approach to economic policy. Burnham has also emphasised regional inequality, working-class communities and the need for a different economic model.
That overlap creates a political challenge for Rayner. If Burnham successfully presents himself as a leader who understands the concerns of traditional Labour voters while also appealing to a broader electorate, he could occupy ground that has historically been important to other figures on the party’s left.
However, political influence is not determined solely by who delivers the most compelling speeches. It also depends on ministerial performance, relationships with MPs, party organisation and the ability to build support for specific policies.
Rayner has her own political identity and experience. Her record on housing and workers’ rights provides opportunities to establish a distinct contribution to the government.
The extent to which she can do so will depend on her decisions and results, rather than on the assumption that Burnham’s arrival has automatically ended her prospects.
Reform UK Remains a Challenge
Although attention has focused on the relationship between Burnham and Rayner, Reform UK remains an important competitor for Labour.
Nigel Farage has sought to attract voters who are dissatisfied with the established parties, particularly on immigration, public services and the wider direction of the economy. Labour’s improvement in some polls may complicate Reform’s political strategy, but it does not eliminate the reasons some voters have turned away from the traditional parties.
Burnham’s response has been to argue that closer cooperation with Europe, economic reform and a stronger focus on regional development can help address Britain’s underlying problems.
His position on Europe has already generated controversy. On 12 October, Reuters reported that Burnham wanted to pursue a new trade agreement with the European Union, including closer cooperation on food standards, carbon emissions trading and youth mobility. He also argued that Britain should consider its longer-term relationship with the bloc. <Cite refs={[“turn691456news9”]} />
The proposal gives Burnham an opportunity to present himself as pragmatic and focused on economic growth. However, it also creates an opening for Farage and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch to argue that the government is reopening divisions over Brexit.
Burnham must therefore demonstrate that closer cooperation can deliver tangible benefits without allowing the argument to dominate his entire political agenda.
The Cost-of-Living Test
Ultimately, the most important measure of Burnham’s success will be whether people experience improvements in their everyday lives.
The new government has highlighted measures intended to reduce household costs and strengthen public services. Yet voters will want to know whether energy bills become more manageable, whether wages keep pace with prices, whether access to healthcare improves and whether families can find affordable housing.
These issues are also central to Rayner’s political future. As housing secretary, she will be judged on the delivery of policies that affect millions of people. Burnham’s wider economic programme will face similar scrutiny.
The government cannot rely indefinitely on favourable comparisons with its predecessor. Nor can it assume that an improved position in a handful of polls will protect it from public dissatisfaction.
The political advantage of a new administration is that it has an opportunity to set priorities and establish a different tone. The disadvantage is that expectations rise quickly, and every failure can be interpreted as evidence that the promised change has not arrived.
Has Burnham Really Defeated His Biggest Rival?
The claim that Burnham has crushed his biggest rival makes for a dramatic headline, but it goes further than the available evidence supports.
Labour’s improved polling position and the retention of a prominent parliamentary seat are developments that strengthen the prime minister’s position. They suggest that the party has gained some political breathing space following a difficult period.
They do not prove that Angela Rayner has lost her influence, nor do they establish that she could not play a more prominent role in Labour politics in the future. Her return to the Cabinet gives her an opportunity to demonstrate what she can achieve, while Burnham must prove that his wider programme can deliver results.
The two politicians may compete over ideas, influence and the party’s long-term direction. But they also share responsibility for the performance of the government.
For Burnham, the central task is to turn early momentum into lasting progress. For Rayner, the challenge is to make her ministerial role count and show that her priorities can shape policy. For Labour as a whole, the test is whether the government can rebuild public confidence while managing disagreements within its own ranks.
The coming months will reveal whether Burnham’s early gains represent a lasting change in the political landscape or simply a period of renewed optimism. Until then, claims that one leading figure has rendered another irrelevant should be treated as political interpretation rather than established fact.
The decisive issue will not be who appears to dominate the headlines today. It will be who can help deliver the economic security, better housing and effective public services that voters expect from the government they elected.