Andy Burnham given major Brexit U-turn warning — ‘have you thought about this?’ . hyn

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Andy Burnham pictured in suit and tie

Andy Burnham has not ruled out reversing Brexit (Image: Getty)

Britain’s re-entry into the European Union comes with a major risk, a major finance boss has warned. The Prime Minister has not ruled out a second EU referndum and a reversal of Brexit, which he thinks has “done more harm than good”. Extra paperwork and checks and the delays at the EU border have hurt UK businesses, Nigel Green, the CEO of deVere Group said. He added that a closer relationship with Europe would be good for the economy. “There’s no question about it,” Mr Green said. “But the same changes that make it easier to do business with Europe also make it easier for people, and their money, to move there.

“Investors need to factor in both.” If the Government does not change its stance on taxation, entrepreneurs and investors would be tempted to leave Blighty, and this would be easier for them to do inside the EU, Mr Green suggested. “We’re already seeing entrepreneurs, senior executives and internationally mobile families seriously considering a move abroad as taxes go up,” he said.

“It comes up in our conversations every week. If moving around Europe becomes easier, that’s one less obstacle for them. Closer ties with the EU won’t solve problems of the UK’s own making.

“If the tax burden keeps rising and the state keeps growing, we risk losing the entrepreneurs and investors the economy depends on, and we won’t attract new ones to replace them. Wealthy people and business owners have more choice than ever about where they live and invest, and they’ll go wherever they feel most valued.”

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“Alongside the EU reset, the Government needs to get domestic policy right. This means a competitive tax system, a planning process that doesn’t hold projects up for years, and enough stability for businesses to plan ahead with confidence.

“The UK has huge strengths in its talent, its legal system, and its capital markets. Get both of these right and it can be one of the most attractive places in Europe for capital. Get only one right and it simply becomes easier for people to leave.”

Nigel Green, founder and CEO of deVere Group at the Game Changers Series, JW Marriott Hotel in Admiralty. 11MAY16 SCMP/K. Y. Cheng

deVere Group CEO, Nigel Green (Image: Getty)

Mr Burnham told MPs yesterday that it would be a “dereliction of duty” not to seek deeper partnership with the EU but said the British public will be the “boss” at every stage of renegotiating the relationship. “If we are serious about promoting growth, controlling immigration, upholding our values and security, it is a conversation we must have,” he said.

“Sticking with the status quo is not good enough for Britain. Worse, it would be a major dereliction of duty to turn away.” He added: “Our immediate priority is securing a successful outcome at the summit, and I believe we should then set up a serious dialogue about the different options for our relationship in the long term.

“At every stage, the British public will be the boss, and I am clear that public opinion currently supports a pragmatic approach like the one I am suggesting.” Mr Burnham said the upcoming talks present “an opportunity to make progress on two crucial issues: boosting UK growth and controlling illegal immigration”.

He added: “The summit will also be an opportunity to raise our concerns about Made in Europe and it is clear to me that there is an opportunity to make progress in all of these areas. Together, these deals will add the equivalent of over £10 billion per year to the UK economy by 2040, with the potential to add significantly more.”

A No. 10 source told PA: “Andy understands why some politicians don’t want to face up to the reality that Brexit has not delivered what they once promised. But it is time for a different conversation about what our long-term relationship should be. Sticking with the status quo and not working relentlessly to secure a good deal that boosts growth would be a major dereliction of duty.”

Andy Burnham Given Major Brexit U-Turn Warning — ‘Have You Thought About This?’

Andy Burnham has been warned that bringing Britain closer to the European Union could create economic consequences that extend well beyond trade agreements and border checks, with a leading financial-services executive raising concerns about the movement of wealth, investors and entrepreneurs.

The warning comes as the Prime Minister reopens a debate that has shaped British politics for a decade. Burnham has argued that Brexit has done more harm than good and that the government must examine the available options for Britain’s long-term relationship with Europe. He has not ruled out the possibility of eventually rejoining the bloc, although the government has yet to settle on a specific model or timetable. <Cite refs={[“turn158778search5″,”turn158778search0”]}/>

But Nigel Green, chief executive of deVere Group, has raised a question that could complicate the government’s economic argument: if Britain makes it easier to trade and operate across Europe, could it also make it easier for wealthy individuals, business owners and investors to relocate their money and activities elsewhere?

His warning does not mean that closer EU relations would automatically trigger an exodus of capital. Instead, it highlights a wider policy challenge: any benefits from improved access to European markets could be undermined if Britain’s domestic tax and investment environment becomes less attractive.

For Burnham, the question is whether his proposed European reset can be accompanied by domestic policies that encourage businesses to invest, create jobs and remain in the UK.

The Warning Behind the Brexit Debate

Green’s argument centres on the mobility of capital and internationally mobile professionals. He has said that entrepreneurs, senior executives and families with international options are already considering moving abroad amid concerns about taxation and the broader business environment.

In his comments reported by AOL, Green argued that easier movement across Europe could remove another obstacle for those considering a relocation. He urged the government to consider the effects of its domestic economic policies alongside any attempt to strengthen ties with Brussels. <Cite refs={[“turn884525view0”]}/>

The underlying point is straightforward. Businesses do not make decisions about investment based on trade arrangements alone. They also consider taxation, access to skilled workers, planning rules, infrastructure, political stability and the ability to expand into new markets.

If the UK reduces barriers to European trade while maintaining an attractive environment for investment, businesses could benefit from both developments. However, if the government improves market access while introducing policies that investors regard as unpredictable or excessively costly, the overall effect could be less favourable.

That is the tension Green wants policymakers to examine.

His warning should nevertheless be understood as an argument from a financial-services executive, rather than proof that a large-scale departure of wealthy people is inevitable. Decisions about relocation are influenced by many factors, and the effect of any future EU agreement would depend on its actual terms.

The important issue is whether ministers have considered these different factors together, rather than treating closer relations with Europe as a solution to every economic difficulty.

Why Burnham Wants a New Relationship With Europe

Burnham’s case for reviewing Brexit begins with the economic relationship between Britain and its largest nearby trading partner.

Since leaving the EU, British businesses have faced additional customs procedures, documentation requirements and other barriers when trading with European customers. For companies that depend on frequent cross-border shipments, even relatively small administrative costs can accumulate.

The government argues that reducing these obstacles could improve productivity, support exports and give businesses greater certainty when planning investments.

The economic argument has also received support from senior government figures. On 14 October, Scotland Secretary Douglas Alexander argued that closer trading arrangements with the EU could offer Britain greater economic benefits than pursuing separate trade agreements with countries farther away. He pointed to the geographical proximity of European markets and the EU’s importance to UK trade. <Cite refs={[“turn884525view1”]}/>

That argument does not mean agreements with countries such as India or the United States have no value. Rather, it suggests that Britain may gain more from reducing friction with a nearby market that already accounts for a substantial share of its international trade.

Burnham is therefore attempting to address a central post-Brexit question: can Britain maintain its independence over economic policy while restoring enough cooperation with Europe to improve the conditions in which businesses operate?

The answer will depend on the arrangements negotiated. A limited agreement on agricultural products or electricity would have different consequences from joining a customs union, entering the single market or seeking full EU membership.

Those options involve different obligations, benefits and trade-offs. Treating them as interchangeable would obscure the choices facing the government.

Could Wealth and Investment Move Abroad?

Green’s intervention draws attention to a concern that is particularly important for the UK’s financial-services industry.

Britain has traditionally attracted international investors through its financial markets, legal institutions, professional services and access to global business networks. Maintaining those strengths requires more than offering attractive opportunities to foreign companies. It also depends on providing a stable environment in which businesses can make long-term decisions.

Entrepreneurs may consider relocating when they believe another country offers a more favourable combination of taxes, operating costs, lifestyle and market access. Large investors can also distribute their activities across several jurisdictions rather than relying entirely on one country.

Green argues that the government should not assume closer European integration will compensate for weaknesses elsewhere in the domestic economy. He has called for a competitive tax system, faster planning decisions and greater stability for businesses. <Cite refs={[“turn884525view0”]}/>

However, the relationship between taxation and relocation is complex. A higher tax rate does not automatically mean that investors will leave, just as a lower rate does not guarantee additional investment. Companies also consider access to customers, the availability of skilled employees, public infrastructure and the quality of the legal system.

The same is true of European integration. Easier movement across borders could make relocation simpler for some people, but it could also encourage businesses to establish or expand operations in Britain if the country becomes a more effective gateway to European markets.

The outcome cannot be determined from the existence of easier movement alone.

For Burnham, the practical lesson is that the government needs to understand how tax policy, trade arrangements and investment incentives interact. A coherent strategy would assess both the opportunities created by closer EU relations and the measures needed to keep Britain attractive to businesses.

The Tax Question Burnham Cannot Ignore

Taxation could become one of the most difficult domestic issues in the debate.

Governments need revenue to fund public services, infrastructure and economic development. Yet businesses also need to understand how much tax they will pay and whether the rules will remain sufficiently stable to support long-term planning.

If taxes rise without a convincing explanation of the benefits, some business owners may reconsider where they invest or expand. On the other hand, reducing taxes without accounting for the resulting loss of revenue could place additional pressure on public finances.

Burnham must therefore balance competing priorities.

A government seeking stronger economic growth may want to encourage investment through a more predictable tax framework, efficient planning procedures and targeted support for productive industries. At the same time, it may believe that additional revenue is necessary to deliver public services or meet other commitments.

The difficult question is not simply whether taxes should rise or fall. It is whether the overall policy framework provides sufficient incentives for businesses to invest while giving the government the resources it needs.

Green’s warning places this issue alongside the Brexit reset. He is effectively arguing that improvements in international market access will not deliver their full potential if domestic policy discourages the people and businesses expected to take advantage of them.

That is a legitimate issue for economic debate, even if the scale of any potential relocation remains uncertain.

Rejoining the EU Is Not the Same as Signing a Trade Deal

Another complication is that the phrase “closer ties with Europe” can refer to several very different arrangements.

The government could pursue agreements designed to reduce specific barriers to trade without seeking membership of the EU. It could explore a customs union, which would affect Britain’s tariff arrangements with countries outside the bloc. A single-market relationship would involve closer alignment with relevant European rules. Full membership would require a much broader negotiation over Britain’s rights and obligations.

Euronews has reported that Burnham’s openness to examining the full range of options has raised expectations in Brussels, while leaving important questions about what the UK is actually prepared to pursue. <Cite refs={[“turn884525view2″,”turn158778search5”]}/>

These distinctions matter to investors because the details would determine how businesses operate across borders.

A sector-specific trade agreement might remove some paperwork while leaving many other requirements unchanged. A much deeper relationship could reduce additional barriers but involve more extensive regulatory commitments.

Nor could Britain assume that rejoining the EU would automatically reproduce the exact arrangements it enjoyed before Brexit. The terms of any future agreement would be subject to negotiations with European institutions and member states.

Burnham has consequently committed himself to examining the advantages and disadvantages of the available choices rather than announcing an immediate return to membership.

The challenge is to provide enough clarity for businesses to plan without making promises that negotiations cannot guarantee.

What Does This Mean for Ordinary Households?

Although the debate often focuses on wealthy investors, the consequences of economic policy reach far beyond the financial sector.

If closer European trade reduces costs for businesses, some of those savings could eventually benefit consumers through lower prices, greater product availability or improved competition. Businesses that find it easier to export may also expand production and create jobs.

But those benefits are not automatic. Companies may retain some savings, and the effect on prices will depend on competition, supply chains, exchange rates and other economic conditions.

Likewise, if a business moves investment or operations abroad, the consequences for workers and local communities will depend on the scale and nature of the move. Some firms might relocate particular functions while maintaining a substantial UK presence. Others might choose to expand in Britain because of its workforce, expertise or commercial opportunities.

Households also have an interest in how the government balances tax revenue and public spending. A policy that encourages investment but reduces the resources available for public services could create different costs from one that raises more revenue but discourages some private activity.

These competing effects make it important to evaluate the details of any proposed settlement rather than assuming that either closer integration or greater separation will automatically benefit everyone.

The Political Risk of Reopening Brexit

Burnham’s European strategy also carries political consequences.

For voters who believe Brexit damaged the economy, a more ambitious relationship with Europe may represent an opportunity to correct mistakes and reduce unnecessary barriers. For those who supported leaving the EU to strengthen national control, the same proposals may look like a gradual reversal of the referendum result.

The Prime Minister has said that the British public should have a central role in decisions about the country’s long-term relationship with Europe. He has also argued that maintaining the status quo without examining alternatives would be irresponsible. <Cite refs={[“turn884525view0″,”turn158778search1”]}/>

That commitment will be tested as the government moves from broad principles to concrete proposals.

Opponents are likely to demand clarity on immigration, sovereignty, regulation and the potential costs of closer integration. Supporters will want to know how quickly trade barriers can be reduced and whether the government is prepared to consider more substantial changes if limited agreements fail to deliver sufficient benefits.

The warning from Green adds another dimension to that debate. Even if a European agreement improves access to markets, the government must still address the conditions that influence where businesses invest and where internationally mobile individuals choose to live.

The challenge is therefore not only diplomatic. It is also a test of the government’s domestic economic strategy.

The Decision Ahead

Burnham now faces the task of bringing these issues together into a coherent plan.

A closer relationship with Europe could provide opportunities to reduce trade friction and improve cooperation with Britain’s largest nearby market. But it would not, on its own, solve problems involving taxation, planning, productivity or investment confidence.

Equally, concerns about the movement of capital should not automatically rule out closer cooperation. The relevant question is whether the benefits of a proposed arrangement outweigh its costs, and whether the government can manage the associated risks through sensible domestic policies.

Green’s warning is best understood as a reminder that international agreements and domestic economic decisions cannot be separated. Businesses assess the whole environment in which they operate, not simply the number of barriers at a border.

The government will need evidence about investment patterns, business costs, tax competitiveness and the likely effects of different European arrangements. It will also need to explain how any proposed changes would affect workers, consumers and public finances.

Ultimately, Burnham’s Brexit reset will be judged not by the strength of its political language but by the practical results it delivers.

Can Britain trade more easily with Europe while remaining an attractive destination for investment? Can the government improve economic opportunities without creating unsustainable fiscal pressures? And can it make those decisions transparently enough to maintain public confidence?

Those are the questions behind the warning that Burnham has been given.

The debate is no longer just about whether Britain should move closer to Europe. It is about what kind of economy the country wants to build—and whether its government can ensure that the benefits of a new relationship are matched by a domestic policy framework capable of sustaining growth.

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