A commentator warned the state pension bill is ‘only going to go up’ due to the triple lock.
Prime Minister Andy Burnham (Image: Getty)
Andy Burnham has been warned the state pension triple lock “has to go” to fund an uplift in defence spending. The Prime Minister is under growing pressure to cut the welfare bill in order to boost the military budget amid rising tensions with Russia.
The triple lock, introduced in 2011 by the Tory–Lib Dem coalition. sees the state pension rise every year by whichever is the highest out of earnings growth, inflation or 2.5%. Most of the major parties, including Labour and the Conservatives, are in favour of keeping it. However, commentators and some organisations have voiced concern as its costs continue to soar.
There are growing calls for defence spending to be ramped up (Image: Getty)
David Blair, The Telegraph‘s chief foreign affairs commentator, said he believes the triple lock should be axed to give more cash to the Ministry of Defence.
In an op ed, he wrote: “If, like me, you constantly urge the British state to invest more in defence, then you have even more of a moral responsibility to show where the money comes from. So here goes. We need to abandon the “triple lock”.”
He added: “When they invented the triple lock, the Conservative-Lib Dem coalition assumed it would cause pensions to rise by only 0.2 per cent above average earnings, with a price tag of an extra £5.2bn by 2029, even accounting for an ageing population.
“In fact, real wages have grown by less than forecast, meaning that the additional cost of the triple lock reached £12bn this year and will climb to £15.5bn – three times the predicted sum – by 2029, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).”
The commentator said the bill is “only going to go up”.
Official forecasts show the state pension is set to hit almost 9% of GDP by 2075.
Britain currently spends around 5% of its GDP on state pensions.
Defence spending is expected to account for 2.6% of the UK’s national income in 2026.
Many experts have warned current defence plans are insufficient amid the tensions with Russia.
The Conservatives are calling for defence spending to hit 3% by 2030, rather than in the next parliament as pledged by the Government.
Mr Blair said he would replace the triple lock from 2027, with the state pension instead rising by inflation only.
He concluded his piece by writing: “Cut welfare to fund defence. End the triple lock to ease the burden on future generations. Not easy – and there would be many losers – but it would be right.”
It comes days after Baroness Therese Coffey, Conservative work and pensions secretary between 2019 and 2022, said the triple lock should “probably” be replaced.
The British Chambers of Commerce has called on the Prime Minister to scrap the triple lock, claiming it would save more than £3 billion across two years.