Prime Minister Andy Burnham. (Image: PA)
Kemi Badenoch declared that a Tory poll bounce is “just the beginning” after the party leapfrogged Reform UK. The latest YouGov survey puts the Conservatives in second place on 23%, one point behind Labour on 24%.
Nigel Farage‘s Reform – which led more than 300 consecutive polls – is third with 21% after a difficult few months for the party amid rows over finances. Mrs Badenoch said: “I am confident that the momentum will continue, because people are seeing the Conservative Party has changed under my leadership and there’s much more to come, this is just the beginning.
“We left office two years ago, it was a historic defeat for the Conservative Party. We made a lot of mistakes.
“I have been showing the public that I understand what went wrong; apologised and acknowledged those mistakes. But we are the only party with common sense and a plan to unite the country. There’s no other party that has that combination.”
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The Tories are one point behind Labour in a new poll. (Image: Getty)
Mrs Badenoch added: “I think the public have been taking a long look at Reform and they don’t like what they see.
“What I need to show them is that if they don’t want a Labour Government there is only one credible alternative.”
The Tories are up three points from the week before in an apparent bounce after the party’s conference, while Labour are down by the same amount.
Mrs Badenoch used the gathering in Birmingham to announce that the Conservatives would scrap inheritance tax on family homes if they win power.
Anthony Wells, YouGov’s global head of politics, elections and public data, said the changes are within the margin of error.
But he added: “I suspect there is some degree of “conference bounce” there, with the Tories getting a boost from their coverage, and Labour declining again as the temporary impact of their own conference fades.
“It may well be a temporary Tory boost, but for the record it means this is the first time that we have had Reform back in third place since 2024.”
The Lib Dems are fourth on 12%, while the Greens are on 11% after leader Zack Polanski failed to win a crunch by-election in Sir Keir Starmer‘s former seat.
YouGov polled 2,393 people between October 11 and 12.
Andy Burnham Dealt Huge Blow in Nightmare Poll for PM
Andy Burnham has been dealt a significant polling setback after a new YouGov survey revealed that Labour’s lead over the Conservatives has narrowed to just one percentage point. The figures provide a fresh reminder that the political momentum surrounding the Prime Minister could prove difficult to sustain, particularly as rival parties attempt to convince voters that they offer a credible alternative.
The poll puts Labour on 24 per cent, down three points from the previous week. Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives have climbed to 23 per cent, an increase of three points, while Nigel Farage’s Reform UK stands at 21 per cent, down one point. The Liberal Democrats are on 12 per cent, with the Greens at 11 per cent.
The survey was conducted by YouGov among 2,393 people between 11 and 12 October 2026. YouGov’s Anthony Wells cautioned that the movements were within the margin of error, although he suggested the Conservatives might have benefited from a boost following their party conference. <Cite refs={[“turn147600search1″,”turn147600search0”]}/>
The figures have nevertheless created a new talking point in Westminster. After Labour’s recent improvement in the polls, the narrowing gap raises questions about whether the party can maintain its momentum and persuade voters that its promises will translate into tangible improvements in their lives.
For Burnham, the challenge is to demonstrate that Labour’s renewed appeal can survive the return of intense competition from both the Conservatives and Reform UK.
Labour’s Lead Comes Under Pressure
The latest figures represent a change from the more favourable polling picture Labour enjoyed earlier in October.
Following Burnham’s Labour conference speech, YouGov reported Labour on 27 per cent and Reform UK on 22 per cent, giving the governing party a five-point advantage. The Conservatives were also behind Labour at that stage, despite showing signs of improvement. <Cite refs={[“turn147600news11″,”turn147600search13”]}/>
The latest survey suggests that some of that advantage has disappeared.
Labour’s three-point decline and the Conservatives’ three-point rise have brought the two parties almost level. Reform remains close enough to keep the contest competitive, while the Liberal Democrats and Greens continue to compete for voters who may be dissatisfied with the larger parties.
However, a single poll cannot establish whether Labour’s support is entering a sustained decline. Polling figures naturally fluctuate, and changes of a few percentage points may reflect sampling variation rather than a permanent shift in public opinion.
The figures should therefore be treated as a warning about the uncertainty surrounding the political landscape, rather than a definitive verdict on Burnham’s leadership.
Even so, a one-point lead leaves little room for complacency. Labour must persuade voters that it can deliver on its commitments, while its opponents have an opportunity to challenge the government’s record and present alternative policies.
Kemi Badenoch Sees an Opportunity
The Conservatives have reason to welcome the latest figures, particularly after a difficult period in which Reform UK has attracted support from voters who previously backed the Tories.
Badenoch’s party has sought to distinguish itself from both Labour and Reform by emphasising its own policy priorities. At the Conservative conference, she announced a proposal to abolish inheritance tax on family homes if her party returned to power. She also rejected calls for an electoral pact with Farage, arguing that the Conservatives would not unite with Reform. <Cite refs={[“turn147600search1″,”turn147600news5”]}/>
The rise to 23 per cent suggests that the Conservatives may have attracted renewed attention following their conference. Nevertheless, it would be premature to conclude that the party has overcome its broader difficulties.
A temporary conference bounce does not necessarily translate into lasting public support. The Conservatives still need to explain how their policies would address household costs, economic growth, public services and immigration.
Badenoch also faces a strategic dilemma. Reform competes for many voters who want a tougher approach to immigration and a more pronounced break with established political parties. Yet working with Farage could undermine the Conservatives’ claim to be an independent political alternative.
Her refusal to endorse a pact keeps that distinction clear, but it also means the Conservatives must establish their appeal on their own.
The latest poll provides an opportunity to make that case. Whether the improvement lasts will depend on the party’s ability to turn conference announcements into a consistent message that resonates beyond its existing supporters.
Nigel Farage Remains a Major Factor
Although Reform UK has slipped to 21 per cent in the latest YouGov survey, it remains within three percentage points of Labour.
That position means Farage continues to be an important figure in the competition for voters who are dissatisfied with the traditional parties. Reform has built much of its political appeal around immigration control, opposition to the established political consensus and promises to change how government operates.
Yet the party faces challenges of its own. Recent polling coverage has highlighted controversies surrounding its finances and competition from Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain. Those developments could complicate Reform’s efforts to maintain its position as the principal alternative to Labour and the Conservatives. <Cite refs={[“turn147600news5″,”turn147600search15”]}/>
The latest numbers also illustrate how quickly the relationship between the three parties can change. Reform had previously led several national polls, but Labour’s improvement under Burnham has altered the immediate picture.
For Farage, the task is to convince voters that Reform can move beyond protest politics and demonstrate that its proposals are workable. The party must also distinguish itself from the Conservatives without allowing disagreements on the right to divide its potential support.
The Conservatives’ recent rise adds another complication. If Badenoch succeeds in attracting voters who had considered switching to Reform, Farage could face greater competition for the same section of the electorate.
At the same time, Labour’s narrow lead means that Reform does not need to overtake the governing party in every poll to remain central to the national debate.
Can Burnham Turn Promises Into Results?
The most important question for the Prime Minister is whether voters believe his government can improve the country’s direction.
Burnham’s recent conference message included a commitment to developing a national care service, alongside a broader promise to address problems affecting public services and household finances. He has also argued for closer cooperation with European partners and a reassessment of the economic consequences of Brexit. <Cite refs={[“turn147600news11″,”turn147600search13”]}/>
Those proposals offer a clear political direction, but they also create expectations that the government will need to meet.
A national care service, for example, would require decisions about funding, staffing, coordination and the relationship between health and social care. Any plan to improve living standards would need to address the pressures facing households, including housing expenses, bills and the cost of essential goods.
Voters may welcome ambitious announcements while remaining uncertain about whether the government can implement them successfully.
That distinction is central to the polling challenge. Public support can rise when a new leader offers a different message, but maintaining it requires visible progress and credible explanations when policies encounter obstacles.
The latest figures do not establish why Labour’s support has fallen. They do, however, underline the importance of delivery. Burnham cannot rely indefinitely on the attention generated by his leadership or conference speech.
He will need to show that his priorities can produce meaningful results for people who are concerned about their finances, public services and Britain’s economic future.
The Economy Could Shape the Next Phase
Economic conditions are likely to remain a central influence on the government’s political fortunes.
Households want greater certainty about their budgets, while businesses are looking for stable conditions in which to invest, expand and create employment. Public services also depend on the government’s ability to balance competing demands on limited resources.
If voters see improvements in these areas, Labour may have a stronger argument that its policies are beginning to work. If they continue to experience financial pressure or struggle to access essential services, opposition parties will have opportunities to challenge the government’s priorities.
Closer relations with the European Union form part of this economic debate. Supporters argue that reducing trade barriers could help businesses and strengthen economic cooperation. Critics may question the costs, the obligations involved and whether the changes would produce sufficient benefits.
Any European reset will therefore need to be accompanied by clear explanations of what the government wants to achieve and how success will be measured.
The same applies to domestic spending commitments. Announcing ambitious plans is only the beginning; voters will also want to know how those plans will be financed and implemented.
For Burnham, economic credibility will be essential to maintaining public confidence.
What the Poll Means for the Next Election
The narrow gap between Labour and the Conservatives is politically significant, but national voting-intention figures cannot tell the whole story of a future general election.
Britain’s electoral system allocates parliamentary seats according to constituency results rather than national vote share alone. The geographical distribution of support matters, as do local candidates, campaign issues and changes in individual constituencies.
A party can gain votes nationally without translating those gains into a proportionate increase in seats. Conversely, relatively small changes in support across particular constituencies can have substantial consequences for parliamentary representation.
The latest survey also represents a snapshot of opinion among the people interviewed during a specific period. It does not guarantee that the same preferences will persist until the next election.
Labour’s 24 per cent, the Conservatives’ 23 per cent and Reform’s 21 per cent should therefore be understood as measurements of current voting intention, not forecasts of a definitive election result.
Nevertheless, the figures demonstrate that the competition remains open and that the governing party cannot assume its recent improvement will continue without interruption.
A Warning, Not a Final Verdict
The latest poll places Burnham in a more difficult position than the five-point Labour lead reported earlier in October. The Conservatives have narrowed the gap, and Reform remains close enough to challenge both parties.
But the survey also contains important limitations. The movements fall within the margin of error, and there is not yet enough evidence from this result alone to establish whether Labour is experiencing a sustained loss of support.
The political implications will become clearer only as further polls reveal whether these changes persist.
For Labour, the priority is to maintain public confidence through credible policies and visible progress. For Badenoch, the opportunity is to turn the Conservatives’ improved polling position into lasting support. For Farage, the challenge is to demonstrate that Reform can retain its appeal while facing competition from both established parties and challengers on the right.
Burnham’s immediate problem is not simply that Labour’s lead has narrowed. It is that the party must now compete in a political environment where voters have several alternatives and may be prepared to change their minds.
The message from the latest survey is straightforward: Labour remains narrowly ahead, but its position is not secure. Whether the setback becomes a temporary interruption or the beginning of a longer trend will depend on what happens next—and on whether the government can convince voters that its promises are becoming reality.