Andy Burnham’s Downing Street honeymoon could already be in serious jeopardy after an explosive new poll revealed growing support for Opposition leader Kemi Badenoch. The newly-crowned Prime Minister took over the keys to No 10 on July 20, after being elected unopposed as Labour leader days before.

But, despite taking power barely 10 days ago, a bombshell YouGov poll – conducted between July 21 and 22 – has delivered a stark warning to the Labour chief. While Mr Burnham has managed to secure a divided public rating in his first official favourability survey as head of Government, it is Tory leader Kemi Badenoch who is making dramatic strides in the court of public opinion. The YouGov polling reveals the public is split down the middle on the former Mayor of Greater Manchester, with 38% viewing him favourably and 35% viewing him negatively.

The newly crowned Prime Minister’s Downing Street honeymoon could already be over (Image: Getty)

Kemi Badenoch scored the highest result for any Conservative leader in over five years (Image: Getty)

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While his net score of +3 makes him more popular at launch than Keir Starmer (-3), Boris Johnson (-18), or Rishi Sunak (-19), he trails significantly behind former Conservative Prime Minister Theresa May, who stormed into office in 2016 with an enviable +12 net rating.

However, the real bombshell in the tracker is Kemi Badenoch’s rapid surge. The Tory leader’s latest net favourability score has rocketed to -11, her highest rating ever recorded by YouGov and the highest score for any Conservative leader in over five years.

A third (33%) of Britons now view her favourably, compared to a mere 19% this time last year. Crucially, negative perceptions of Mrs Badenoch have plummeted from 54% down to 44%, signalling a massive shift in public momentum toward the Tories as voters look closely at No 10’s new occupant.

While Mrs Badenoch celebrates a massive polling breakthrough, the picture is rather disastrous for Reform UK leader Nigel Farage.

Farage’s approval ratings have crashed after he resigned to trigger a by-election in Clacton (Image: Getty)

Following his decision to resign his Clacton seat to trigger a by-election amid scrutiny over his financial interests, Mr Farage’s popularity has crashed to historic depths. Just 22% of voters view the Reform leader favourably, while a punishing 68% view him negatively – including 56% who hold a “very unfavourable” opinion. His rock-bottom net score of -46 is the joint-lowest score recorded in the 10-year history of YouGov’s tracker, matching the depths reached by Keir Starmer shortly before his resignation last month.

Voters are also weighing in on Mr Burnham’s brand-new Cabinet after a sweeping reshuffle designed to steady the Labour Government. The surprise choice for No 11, John Healey, enjoys an encouraging start with a +5 net rating (22% favourable to 17% unfavourable), though 62% of voters admit they are still reserving judgment.

Returning to Housing and taking over Foreign Affairs, left-wing heavyweights Angela Rayner and Ed Miliband face steep public scepticism, with over half of the public holding an unfavourable view of both ministers. Home Secretary Mahmood and new Defence Secretary Wes Streeting both rebounded slightly, rising to net ratings of -14 and -27, respectively.

Andy Burnham Dealt Huge Blow as New Bombshell Poll Reveals Who People Truly Want as PM

Andy Burnham’s position at the centre of British politics has come with a difficult challenge: turning public interest in his leadership into lasting confidence in his ability to govern. New polling has highlighted both his appeal and the limits of that support, raising questions about whether the public’s preferred prime minister and its preferred political party are necessarily the same thing.

The latest figures do not, however, deliver a straightforward defeat for Burnham. An Ipsos poll published on 29 September 2026 found that voters preferred a Labour government led by Burnham over a Reform UK government led by Nigel Farage by 52% to 28%. In a separate comparison, 44% preferred a Burnham-led Labour government to a Conservative government led by Kemi Badenoch, favoured by 30%. These were hypothetical choices between alternative governments, not a forecast of the next general election. citeturn936863search1

The results illustrate why political polling can be more complicated than a dramatic headline suggests. Burnham may perform well when voters are asked to choose between two possible governments, yet that does not automatically mean the public is satisfied with Labour’s performance or convinced that its policies will solve Britain’s problems.

For Burnham, the challenge is to turn personal appeal into confidence in his political programme. For his opponents, the opportunity lies in questioning whether favourable comparisons translate into support at the ballot box.

What the latest polling actually tells us

The Ipsos findings suggest that Burnham has a degree of personal appeal across party lines. In a direct comparison with Farage, respondents were more likely to choose a Labour government led by Burnham than one led by the Reform UK leader. A similar, although narrower, pattern emerged in the comparison with Badenoch and the Conservatives. citeturn936863search1

But the figures need to be read carefully. Asking respondents which of two governments they would prefer is different from asking which party they intend to vote for, whether they approve of the current government’s performance or which politician they believe is most likely to become prime minister after the next election.

Different questions can produce different results because voters weigh different considerations. Someone might prefer Burnham to Farage in a hypothetical leadership comparison while remaining dissatisfied with Labour’s economic policies. Another voter might dislike the Conservative Party but still be uncertain about whether a Labour government could deliver the changes they want.

That distinction matters in a political environment where cost-of-living pressures, immigration, public services and economic growth remain major concerns.

A poll is a snapshot of opinion at a particular time. It can reveal public attitudes, but it cannot establish that one politician has secured a permanent advantage or that voters will make the same choice when faced with an actual election.