British democracy. You’ve got to love it – even if you’ve got a track record like Reform. Their miserable run in local by-elections was extended this week, with the party failing to win in six different contests. However, a town council ballot in Billericay perhaps tells the most compelling story of the lot.

An interesting definition of ‘neck and neck’…

Reform poured some sizable resources into the Billericay East by-election, held on Thursday. There was a highly coordinated campaign, bidding to sway locals to back their candidate Denise Martin. Heading into the vote, Reform claimed that the battle was ‘neck and neck’, and likely to go down to the wire.

“The exit polls in Billericay East are neck and neck this could come down to a TINY number of votes. If protecting the Green Belt matters to you, head down to the polls and cast your vote. Denise Martin is standing on a clear pledge to protect the Green Belt and challenge the old boys club.” | Councillor Sam Journet

Billericay by-election ends in a pasting for Reform

The race between Reform and the Conservatives was a relatively tight contest during the previous election held in Billericay East, just a few months ago. The Tories came out on top, claiming 45% of the vote against the 32% registered for their right-wing rivals.

So, after throwing the kitchen sink at this election, could Reform wrestle the balance of public support back in their favour? The answer is, quite comprehensively, ‘no’. And you can forget about anything resembling a ‘neck-and-neck’ contest, either.

Conservative candidate Gavin Taylor emerged victorious, registering more than 1,500 votes. This turned out to be almost THREE TIMES more than Denise Martin received. Drill a little deeper, and the numbers tell a story that should set alarm bells ringing at Reform HQ.

The Reform vote share has dropped noticeably since May, falling from 32% down to 25%. This, despite them being only one of two parties on the ballot this time around. Conversely, the Tory vote share soared by 30% – bolstered by voters left with no other alternative.

More local election nightmares for Reform

When faced with a choice which essentially boils down to ‘Reform or Not Reform’, the electorate in this part of the UK decisively opted for the latter. Of course, one local by-election result on its own perhaps isn’t a harbinger of doom for Nigel Farage and his party. But this result is far from an anomaly.

Not only are Reform struggling to win in by-elections – council, local, or Parliamentary – but they are being squeezed from all sides. With Restore eating in to their vote from further right on the spectrum, centrist and ‘moderate’ voters are also refusing to cross the turquoise divide.

And, if these trends carry forward into a General Election, it’ll be a genuine headache for Reform.

By-Election Billed as ‘Neck-and-Neck’ Ends in Thumping Defeat for Reform UK

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has suffered a significant setback after a local by-election in Billericay ended in a decisive victory for the Conservatives, despite earlier claims that the contest was too close to call.

The result came as an embarrassment for Reform, which had invested considerable campaigning resources in trying to secure victory in Billericay East. Party supporters had suggested that the contest was neck-and-neck and could be decided by just a handful of votes.

However, when the results were announced on Thursday, 22 October 2026, the outcome was considerably different.

Conservative candidate Gavin Taylor secured more than 1,500 votes, receiving almost three times as many votes as Reform candidate Denise Martin.

The result was particularly significant because Reform had previously performed strongly in the area, making the latest figures an important development in the party’s local electoral fortunes.

Reform Had Predicted a Close Contest

In the days leading up to the election, Reform representatives had expressed confidence about their chances.

Councillor Sam Journet described the contest as neck-and-neck, suggesting that the outcome could depend on a very small number of votes.

He also encouraged residents concerned about protecting the Green Belt to support Reform candidate Denise Martin.

The party’s campaign focused on local environmental concerns and criticism of established political leadership.

Reform hoped to turn its previous electoral support into a victory and demonstrate that it could challenge the Conservatives in an area where the two parties had previously competed closely.

However, the final result did not reflect the confidence expressed during the campaign.

Instead, Gavin Taylor emerged with a substantial victory, leaving Reform facing questions about why its expectations had differed so dramatically from the outcome.

Conservatives Secure 75 Per Cent of the Vote

The figures from Billericay East provide an interesting comparison with the previous election in May 2026.

During that contest, the Conservatives received 45 per cent of the vote, while Reform secured 32 per cent.

The remaining votes were divided among other candidates.

In the October by-election, however, the Conservatives increased their share to approximately 75 per cent, representing a 30-percentage-point increase.

Reform’s share fell from 32 per cent to 25 per cent.

This was particularly notable because the October contest effectively became a two-party race between the Conservatives and Reform.

The result suggests that the Conservatives were able to consolidate support among voters who had previously backed other candidates.

It also demonstrates that Reform’s earlier performance did not guarantee continued electoral success, even in a contest where it had invested substantial campaigning effort.

A Difficult Period for Nigel Farage

The Billericay result comes during a period of increased political scrutiny for Nigel Farage and Reform UK.

The party had previously enjoyed considerable success in opinion polls, attracting voters dissatisfied with Labour and the Conservatives.

Its campaign focused on immigration, taxation, national sovereignty and criticism of the political establishment.

However, Reform has recently faced several controversies involving campaign organisation, electoral transparency and its political representatives.

The Electoral Commission also fined the party £2,187.50 following four breaches of electoral imprint requirements.

Although the fine was relatively small, the case generated questions about the party’s compliance with electoral regulations.

Farage has also faced criticism following the disappointing attendance at a Westminster event where he presented Reform’s economic proposals.

These developments have contributed to a challenging period for the party’s public image.

The Billericay result adds another electoral setback to an increasingly complicated political situation.

Why the Result Matters

One local by-election cannot establish the national popularity of a political party.

Local contests are influenced by individual candidates, local issues, turnout and the specific circumstances of each community.

Nevertheless, Billericay East is particularly interesting because Reform had previously received 32 per cent of the vote in the area.

Its decline to 25 per cent in a contest involving only two candidates provides a measurable indication of changing local support.

The Conservative victory also suggests that voters who previously supported smaller parties may be willing to consolidate behind one of the main candidates when faced with a more direct choice.

For Reform, the challenge is understanding why its campaign failed to reproduce its earlier performance.

For the Conservatives, the result provides an opportunity to demonstrate that the party can still compete effectively against Farage’s movement.

Reform’s Wider Electoral Challenges

The defeat also comes amid a series of difficult results for Reform in local elections.

The London Economic reported that the party had failed to win in six separate by-election contests during the same week.

Although the circumstances differed between the elections, the results raised questions about Reform’s ability to translate its national political profile into consistent local electoral success.

Building a national political movement requires more than strong performances in opinion polls.

Parties must also develop local organisations, recruit candidates and persuade residents that their representatives understand the specific challenges facing individual communities.

Reform’s experience in Billericay demonstrates the difficulties involved in maintaining electoral support across different constituencies.

A strong national campaign does not automatically guarantee success in local elections.

What Does This Mean for the Conservatives?

The result provides the Conservatives with an opportunity to challenge the perception that Reform has permanently displaced them as the main force on the political right.

Under Kemi Badenoch, the party has attempted to rebuild its organisation and reconnect with voters who moved towards Reform after the 2024 general election.

The Billericay victory suggests that Conservative support can remain competitive in areas where Reform has previously made significant gains.

However, one local result should not be interpreted as proof of a nationwide Conservative recovery.

The party will need to demonstrate consistent performances across multiple elections before broader conclusions can be drawn.

Nevertheless, Gavin Taylor’s victory gives the Conservatives a result they can point to when discussing their continued electoral strength.

Conclusion

The Billericay East by-election produced a result that differed substantially from Reform UK’s expectations.

Despite claims that the contest was neck-and-neck, Conservative candidate Gavin Taylor secured more than 1,500 votes, almost three times the number received by Reform’s Denise Martin.

The Conservatives increased their vote share from 45 per cent in May to approximately 75 per cent in October, while Reform fell from 32 per cent to 25 per cent.

For Nigel Farage, the result raises questions about the party’s local campaigning strategy and its ability to maintain support.

For the Conservatives, it provides an opportunity to demonstrate that Reform can still be challenged at the ballot box.

Ultimately, the Billericay result is a reminder that political momentum is not permanent. Parties must continue earning voters’ support, and previous polling success cannot guarantee future electoral victories.