Andy Burnham’s political comeback gathered significant momentum after a new constituency poll showed him moving ahead of Reform UK in the closely watched Makerfield by-election.
The findings represented an important moment for Labour, which had been facing growing pressure from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK across several parts of Britain.
For months, Reform had been attempting to turn dissatisfaction with the political establishment into electoral success. The party had made substantial gains in local elections and was increasingly presenting itself as the strongest alternative to Labour.
But Makerfield offered a different picture.
Andy Burnham, the Mayor of Greater Manchester, appeared capable of overcoming Reform’s growing popularity through his personal appeal, local reputation and ability to attract voters who might otherwise have considered supporting another party.
The contest was particularly important because Burnham was not simply attempting to win a parliamentary seat.
His return to Westminster was widely viewed as a potential route towards challenging Keir Starmer for the leadership of the Labour Party.
A victory could therefore have consequences far beyond the constituency itself.
Burnham moves ahead in the constituency polling
One of the most closely watched surveys was conducted by Survation on behalf of Election Data Ltd.
The telephone poll questioned 504 adults living in Makerfield between 18 and 22 May 2026.
Its findings showed Andy Burnham leading Reform UK candidate Robert Kenyon by three percentage points.
Burnham received 43 per cent of the estimated vote, compared with 40 per cent for Kenyon.
Rebecca Shepherd, representing Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain, was on 7 per cent. The Liberal Democrats received 4 per cent, the Green Party 3 per cent and the Conservatives 2 per cent.
Although Burnham’s advantage was relatively small, the figures were significant because they suggested that Labour could remain competitive even in an area where Reform was enjoying considerable support.
Survation also discovered something particularly interesting when voters were asked how they would vote in a general election without being presented with the names of individual constituency candidates.
In that scenario, Reform UK led Labour by 11 percentage points.
This suggested that Burnham’s personal popularity was helping Labour outperform its broader national position.
The difference became known as the Burnham effect.
Rather than simply supporting Labour because of its national leadership, some voters appeared willing to back Burnham because they trusted him personally and believed he understood their concerns.
Why Makerfield became such an important battleground
Makerfield, in Greater Manchester, became one of the most politically significant constituencies in Britain during 2026.
The seat had traditionally been associated with Labour, but the political environment had changed considerably.
Many voters were frustrated with the direction of the country, particularly over immigration, public services, the economy and the cost of living.
Reform UK believed that these concerns created an opportunity to challenge Labour in an area that had previously been considered relatively safe.
Nigel Farage’s candidate, Robert Kenyon, was therefore hoping to turn dissatisfaction with the Government into a breakthrough victory.
However, Burnham’s presence changed the character of the contest.
He had represented the wider region in Parliament before becoming Mayor of Greater Manchester in 2017.
During his time as mayor, he developed a political identity closely associated with northern communities, transport investment, regional development and local government.
Supporters argued that he understood the economic challenges facing the North of England better than politicians who were primarily associated with Westminster.
This reputation became a significant advantage during the campaign.
For voters who were disappointed with Labour nationally but still wanted a representative with strong local connections, Burnham offered an alternative.
Reform faces a problem on the right
One of the biggest complications for Nigel Farage was the appearance of Restore Britain.
The party, led by Rupert Lowe, emerged following a bitter disagreement between Lowe and Reform UK.
Although the two parties had different leadership structures, they were competing for many of the same voters.
Both attracted people who were dissatisfied with the established political parties and wanted tougher immigration policies.
Restore Britain, however, presented an even more hardline position on immigration, including proposals for large-scale deportations.
Its decision to contest Makerfield threatened to divide the anti-Labour vote.
This was particularly important because Reform needed to attract enough voters from different backgrounds to overcome Labour’s traditional support in the constituency.
If voters who previously supported Reform moved to Restore Britain, Kenyon could lose the narrow advantage he needed to defeat Burnham.
Nigel Farage attempted to persuade supporters that the election was essentially a two-horse race between Labour and Reform.
He warned that voting for Restore Britain could help Labour win.
Nevertheless, the new party’s presence created a difficult strategic problem.
Reform could not simply ignore Restore Britain, because doing so risked losing support to a rival that was competing for its political identity.
At the same time, attacking the rival too aggressively could make the divisions on the right even more visible.
A second poll strengthens Labour’s position
Further evidence of Burnham’s strength came from research conducted by Opinium on behalf of Forward Democracy.
The survey questioned 543 Makerfield residents between 3 and 11 June 2026.
Among those considered most likely to vote, Labour held a five-point advantage over Reform UK.
The findings suggested that Burnham was on approximately 46 per cent, while Robert Kenyon was on 41 per cent.
Restore Britain’s Rebecca Shepherd was receiving around 7 per cent.
The figures indicated that the contest remained competitive, but Labour had a narrow advantage heading into the final stages.
Another important finding concerned the difference between Burnham’s popularity and the popularity of the national Labour leadership.
A separate survey conducted by More in Common and UCL Policy Lab found that Burnham had a positive net favourability rating of seven points in Makerfield.
Keir Starmer, by comparison, had a negative rating of 48 points.
That contrast revealed the scale of the challenge facing Labour.
Voters could be deeply dissatisfied with the party’s national leadership while remaining willing to support a candidate they considered different from the Westminster establishment.
For Burnham, this offered a potential route back into Parliament.
For Starmer, it represented another warning that Labour’s electoral problems could not necessarily be solved through changes in presentation alone.
The importance of Burnham’s personal popularity
Burnham’s strongest political advantage was his connection with the local area.
He had spent years developing relationships with councils, community organisations, businesses and residents across Greater Manchester.
His supporters frequently presented him as a politician who understood the practical problems facing ordinary people.
Transport was one of the major issues.
Many residents wanted improvements to public transport, better connections between towns and greater investment outside London.
Housing and employment were also important concerns.
People wanted to see more secure jobs, stronger local economies and better opportunities for younger generations.
Burnham’s campaign attempted to connect these everyday issues with a broader argument about how Britain should be governed.
His political approach, often associated with the term Manchesterism, emphasised regional decision-making and investment rather than relying entirely on central government.
This message helped distinguish him from the national Labour leadership.
However, it also created challenges.
Burnham would need to demonstrate that his promises could be delivered in a difficult economic environment.
Winning an election through personal popularity is one thing. Governing a country and delivering lasting improvements is considerably more complicated.
What the result meant for Nigel Farage
For Reform UK, the Makerfield contest represented an opportunity to demonstrate that its growing national support could translate into parliamentary victories.
A victory would have strengthened Farage’s argument that traditional Labour strongholds were no longer protected from political change.
It would also have provided Reform with a symbolic breakthrough in northern England.
But the polling suggested that the party faced a more complicated situation.
Its support was strong when voters considered national political preferences, yet Burnham’s personal popularity appeared capable of changing the outcome of a constituency election.
The division between Reform and Restore Britain created another obstacle.
Farage could argue that the right needed to unite behind one candidate, but convincing voters to abandon a rival party was not straightforward.
The results also demonstrated that political popularity cannot always be measured through national opinion polls.
Local candidates, personal reputation and constituency issues can have a substantial influence on voting behaviour.
A victory that changed Labour’s political direction
The Makerfield by-election eventually took place on 18 June 2026.
Andy Burnham won the seat for Labour, increasing the party’s vote share by approximately ten percentage points compared with the 2024 general election.
His victory confirmed the importance of his personal appeal and gave him the parliamentary position he needed to return to Westminster.
The result also demonstrated that Reform’s national strength did not automatically guarantee success in every constituency.
However, it would be wrong to interpret the outcome as proof that Reform’s political challenge had disappeared.
The party remained a major force in British politics, and the national voting figures continued to show considerable dissatisfaction with the established parties.
The Institute for Government subsequently recorded Burnham’s victory and noted that he had won the Makerfield by-election on 18 June.
His return to Parliament became a major development in Labour’s political story.
The bigger question facing British politics
The Makerfield contest exposed a fundamental weakness in the traditional political system.
Voters were increasingly willing to separate their opinions of individual politicians from their opinions of political parties.
Some people who disliked Labour’s national direction were prepared to support Burnham.
Others who wanted a tougher approach to immigration preferred Reform or Restore Britain.
Meanwhile, voters who had previously supported the Conservatives were reconsidering their political choices.
This fragmentation made electoral predictions more complicated.
For Labour, Burnham’s victory demonstrated that a popular local figure could still attract support despite widespread dissatisfaction with the national party.
For Reform, the result highlighted the importance of candidate selection, local campaigning and avoiding divisions among potential supporters.
For Nigel Farage, the challenge remained turning national momentum into victories across constituencies with very different political identities.
Ultimately, the Makerfield by-election was much more than a contest between two candidates.
It became a test of Labour’s ability to recover support, Reform’s ambition to break into traditional Labour territory and Burnham’s political future.
The polling had suggested that Burnham could defeat Reform despite the party’s national strength.
The eventual result confirmed that prediction.
But the wider battle for Britain’s political future was far from over.