Prime Minister Andy Burnham. (Image: PA)
Kemi Badenoch declared that a Tory poll bounce is “just the beginning” after the party leapfrogged Reform UK. The latest YouGov survey puts the Conservatives in second place on 23%, one point behind Labour on 24%.
Nigel Farage‘s Reform – which led more than 300 consecutive polls – is third with 21% after a difficult few months for the party amid rows over finances. Mrs Badenoch said: “I am confident that the momentum will continue, because people are seeing the Conservative Party has changed under my leadership and there’s much more to come, this is just the beginning.
“We left office two years ago, it was a historic defeat for the Conservative Party. We made a lot of mistakes.
“I have been showing the public that I understand what went wrong; apologised and acknowledged those mistakes. But we are the only party with common sense and a plan to unite the country. There’s no other party that has that combination.”
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The Tories are one point behind Labour in a new poll. (Image: Getty)
Mrs Badenoch added: “I think the public have been taking a long look at Reform and they don’t like what they see.
“What I need to show them is that if they don’t want a Labour Government there is only one credible alternative.”
The Tories are up three points from the week before in an apparent bounce after the party’s conference, while Labour are down by the same amount.
Mrs Badenoch used the gathering in Birmingham to announce that the Conservatives would scrap inheritance tax on family homes if they win power.
Anthony Wells, YouGov’s global head of politics, elections and public data, said the changes are within the margin of error.
But he added: “I suspect there is some degree of “conference bounce” there, with the Tories getting a boost from their coverage, and Labour declining again as the temporary impact of their own conference fades.
“It may well be a temporary Tory boost, but for the record it means this is the first time that we have had Reform back in third place since 2024.”
The Lib Dems are fourth on 12%, while the Greens are on 11% after leader Zack Polanski failed to win a crunch by-election in Sir Keir Starmer‘s former seat.
YouGov polled 2,393 people between October 11 and 12.
Andy Burnham Dealt Huge Blow in Nightmare Poll for PM
Andy Burnham has been dealt a fresh political blow after a new opinion poll revealed growing dissatisfaction with his leadership, raising questions about whether his early popularity can withstand the pressures of governing. Although the Prime Minister continues to perform comparatively well against other political figures, the latest figures suggest that public confidence should not be taken for granted.
The political landscape has changed considerably in recent weeks. Labour has enjoyed a boost in voting-intention polls since Burnham took over as party leader and Prime Minister, while Reform UK has slipped back and the Conservatives have sought to rebuild their support under Kemi Badenoch. Yet the latest polling on personal favourability highlights a more complicated picture: Burnham remains popular, but the proportion of voters who view him unfavourably has increased.
That distinction matters. A politician can remain the most positively regarded leader while still facing growing public scepticism. For Burnham, the challenge is to turn favourable impressions into confidence that his government can deliver on the issues voters care about most.
The Poll Numbers Behind the Political Pressure
YouGov’s October 2026 political favourability survey found that 46 per cent of Britons viewed Burnham favourably, while 42 per cent held an unfavourable opinion of him. His net favourability stood at plus four, down from a peak of plus 13 in August.
The figures do not show that Burnham has become broadly unpopular. Instead, they suggest that the gap between positive and negative opinions has narrowed considerably since he entered Downing Street.
The survey, conducted among 2,071 adults in Great Britain on 15 and 16 October, provides a snapshot of public attitudes rather than a definitive judgement on the Prime Minister’s performance. Nevertheless, the movement is worth examining because personal approval can influence how voters respond to a government’s decisions.
Burnham’s political honeymoon may be fading as people begin to judge his administration on concrete results rather than the promise of a change in leadership.
The wider polling picture also offers reasons for caution. Labour has benefited from stronger voting-intention figures since Burnham’s leadership change, but party support and personal approval are different measures. A leader may attract positive attention without persuading every voter that the government’s policies will improve their lives.
For the Prime Minister, the priority will be demonstrating that the improvement in Labour’s position reflects lasting confidence rather than a temporary reaction to political change.
The Cost-of-Living Challenge
One of the biggest challenges facing Burnham is the cost of living. Households continue to pay close attention to prices, housing costs, energy bills and the relationship between wages and everyday expenses.
A government can announce ambitious economic plans, but voters ultimately judge them by their impact on household budgets. If families continue to feel financially squeezed, favourable impressions of a new Prime Minister can weaken.
Burnham’s administration must therefore explain how its policies will support economic growth while helping people manage immediate pressures. That requires more than broad promises. It requires clear decisions on taxation, public spending, employment and investment, alongside an explanation of when people can realistically expect improvements.
The difficulty is that economic recovery cannot be delivered by political messaging alone. Growth depends on productivity, private investment, skills, infrastructure and wider economic conditions. Many policies take time to produce results, while households often expect quicker relief.
This creates a tension for any new government. Ministers may argue that their programme needs time, but voters want evidence that the direction is correct.
If Burnham fails to show progress on living standards, opponents will have an opportunity to question whether Labour’s improved polling position reflects genuine confidence in its economic management.
The Autumn Budget Will Be a Crucial Test
The approaching Autumn Budget places additional pressure on the government. Decisions about taxation, public services and borrowing will shape the political debate and could affect how voters assess Burnham’s leadership.
The Chancellor faces difficult choices. Public services need sustainable funding, but households and businesses are concerned about additional financial burdens. Any proposed tax changes will therefore be examined for their effects on workers, pensioners, employers and investors.
Burnham must also ensure that promises made during his leadership campaign and Labour’s political programme can be reconciled with the realities of public finances.
If the Budget delivers measures that voters regard as fair and practical, the government may be able to strengthen confidence. If it produces disappointment, however, opponents could use the outcome to challenge Labour’s economic credibility.
The consequences will depend on the specific measures announced and how they affect different groups. It would be premature to conclude that any particular policy will determine the government’s popularity before the details are known.
What is clear is that the Budget will provide an important opportunity for Burnham to demonstrate whether his administration can convert political momentum into tangible results.
Brexit Remains a Divisive Question
Burnham’s approach to Britain’s relationship with the European Union has also attracted considerable attention. His willingness to discuss closer ties with Brussels has been welcomed by some voters who believe Brexit created unnecessary barriers to trade and cooperation.
Others remain deeply opposed to reopening the question. They argue that the 2016 referendum established a democratic decision to leave the EU and that politicians should focus on making the existing arrangements work.
This disagreement presents a political challenge for Labour. Closer cooperation with Europe may appeal to some voters, but any proposal needs to explain precisely what it would involve and what obligations Britain might accept in return.
There is an important distinction between improving cooperation in specific areas and pursuing full EU membership. Different arrangements would have different consequences for trade, regulation, immigration and national decision-making.
Burnham’s government will need to avoid allowing the European debate to overshadow its domestic priorities. Voters concerned about public services, employment and household finances will expect the government to explain how its European policy contributes to practical improvements.
At the same time, the economic consequences of Britain’s relationship with Europe cannot simply be ignored. The question is whether specific changes could deliver measurable benefits and whether those benefits justify the associated costs and commitments.
The Conservatives See an Opportunity
The latest political developments also matter for Kemi Badenoch and the Conservatives. The party has been attempting to rebuild its position after its historic defeat at the 2024 general election, arguing that it can offer a credible alternative to Labour.
A recent YouGov voting-intention poll conducted on 11 and 12 October placed Labour on 24 per cent, the Conservatives on 23 per cent and Reform UK on 21 per cent. The poll suggested that the Conservatives had received a boost following their party conference, although the pollster cautioned that the changes were within the margin of error.
Those figures illustrate how quickly the political picture can change. They do not establish that the Conservatives have secured a lasting recovery, but they show why Labour cannot assume that its opponents will remain divided or unable to regain support.
Badenoch has argued that the Conservatives are learning from their previous mistakes and presenting a clearer programme. Her challenge is to convince voters that the party has changed sufficiently to deserve renewed confidence.
For Burnham, the existence of a more competitive opposition means that every major policy announcement is likely to face close scrutiny. A government that appears uncertain or disconnected from voters’ concerns could find its advantage narrowing.
However, polling movements should be interpreted carefully. A small change in one survey does not necessarily indicate a lasting shift in public opinion, and voting intention cannot be inferred directly from personal approval ratings.
Reform UK Faces Its Own Difficulties
Reform UK has also experienced a more challenging period in recent polling. Nigel Farage’s party had previously led many national voting-intention surveys, but recent results have placed it behind Labour and, in some polls, the Conservatives.
That change could affect the wider political debate by reducing the pressure on Labour from its right. Nevertheless, Reform continues to draw attention to immigration, asylum policy and dissatisfaction with established political parties.
The party’s difficulties do not guarantee that Labour’s support will remain strong. Voters can move between parties for different reasons, and public concerns about immigration or economic performance may continue to influence political choices.
Burnham will need to address those concerns through policy rather than rely on the weakness of his opponents. A decline in Reform’s polling position could provide Labour with breathing space, but it would not remove the underlying issues that have attracted voters to the party.
The government’s longer-term position will depend on its ability to demonstrate competence, explain difficult decisions and respond to public concerns.
Why Personal Approval Matters
Personal favourability is an important indicator, but it should not be confused with a direct measure of government performance. Voters may like a political leader while disagreeing with particular policies, or dislike a leader while supporting the party they represent.
Burnham’s latest figures suggest that he retains a positive overall balance of opinion, but the rise in unfavourable views indicates that his standing is not immune to pressure.
The figures also provide a reminder that the early months of a new administration can be unusually volatile. A change of leadership may generate optimism, but that initial reaction can diminish as the government confronts difficult decisions.
For Burnham, sustaining public confidence will require consistent attention to economic performance, public services and the delivery of commitments. Communication matters, but it cannot substitute for results.
The government will also need to explain its choices honestly. Not every problem can be resolved quickly, and some decisions will involve unavoidable trade-offs. Voters may be more willing to accept difficult measures if ministers explain why they are necessary and how their effects will be assessed.
Conclusion: A Warning, Not a Political Verdict
Andy Burnham’s latest polling figures provide a warning that his early popularity cannot be taken for granted. With favourable and unfavourable opinions moving closer together, the Prime Minister faces the challenge of proving that his leadership can deliver improvements beyond the initial excitement of political change.
Yet the poll does not show that Burnham has lost his overall popularity. His 46 per cent favourable rating remains substantial, and the findings need to be considered alongside voting-intention surveys and other measures of public opinion.
The approaching Budget will be an important test. Decisions on taxation, public spending and economic policy will offer voters more concrete reasons to assess the government’s performance.
Burnham must demonstrate that Labour can improve living standards, strengthen public services and manage the economy responsibly. He must also explain controversial decisions, including the future relationship with Europe, in terms that connect with people’s practical concerns.
The political situation remains fluid, and no single poll can determine what happens next. The most important question is whether the government can translate its current position into sustained confidence through credible policies and measurable results.
For Burnham, the message is clear: favourable headlines and promising polling figures can provide momentum, but maintaining public trust ultimately depends on what the government delivers.