Plaid Cymru is projected to be the most successful party in Wales after May 7, with Labour dropping down two places to third and Reform UK sitting second.

It is anticipated Plaid will win 33 of the 96 seats in the Senedd, followed by Reform UK with 29 and Labour holding on to 17, a poll published by The Telegraph shows.

Despite chatter of growing popularity for the Greens in Wales, it is forecast they will win just three seats.

Looking at England and how each party will perform in the local council elections, also in May, Labour is on track to suffer its worst results in local election history.

Labour currently controls or is the coalition leader in 83 of the 139 English local authorities.

However, it is forecast they will win just 42 in May, with just under half of these wins being in London.

Rhun ap Iorwerth, leader of Plaid Cymru, seen campaigning across Wales

Due to the Greens success in the capital, it is anticipated they will split the Left vote, but will only take two of London’s 32 boroughs, coming second to Labour.

Reform is on course for a breakthrough success, with the most ambitious projections to be winning 69 English councils, having attracted the vote from the Red Wall and Conservatives in the East of England.

A more pessimistic forecast still projects net win of 56 councils, compared to 42 for Labour, 17 to the Liberal Democrats and 15 for the Tories.

James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners, who carried out the poll, said: “One cannot overstate how seismic that result in Wales would be – it is a place that has stayed Labour even in the party’s darkest days.

If projections are correct, this will be the first time Labour would be out of power since the Senedd’s formation in 1999

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“Plaid Cymru, the SNP, and the Greens are all contributing to this, but it is Reform that looks set to be the real story, potentially moving into opposition in Wales and securing England councils across the country.

“People who have been claiming Reform’s momentum has slowed may look very foolish indeed after these local elections take place.”

The polling reveals how the political map across the UK is shifting.

Labour is no longer secure even in urban strongholds that have voted red for generations.

In Leeds, Manchester and Sheffield, support in fragmenting sharply, while across the north west, north east and Yorkshire a strong of councils are projected to see a Reform win.

In Greater Manchester, the position is particularly precarious: Labour now leads the Greens by less than a single percentage point, following Zack Polanski’s party’s historic win in the Gorton-and-Denton by-election in February.

Further north, in Sunderland, which has been a Labour stronghold since 1974, the party now trails Reform by 10 points, with every council seat up for grabs this year.

Barnsley, a Red-held council for half a century, is also forecast to flip, with Reform ahead by more than 12 points.

Double-digit swings are now projected in places that were once regarded as immovable.

Kemi Badenoch’s “blue wall” is projected to fracture across the south, with Reform on course to take control of Essex, Suffolk and Norfolk.

In East Sussex, West Sussex and Hampshire, the Tories are expected to fall into second or even third place, behind either the Lib Dems or Reform.

The vote share in East Sussex potentially dropping as low as 15 per cent.

Also, the Greens’ advance is becoming increasingly tangible.

They are projected to become the largest party in five authorities across England, including the London boroughs of Haringey and Hackney, a significant marker of their growing appeal in urban areas.

Labour Set to Lose Control of Wales as Keir Starmer Faces a Historic Political Blow

For more than a century, Labour occupied a central position in Welsh politics. The party built deep roots in industrial communities, mining towns and working-class constituencies, becoming closely associated with the development of modern Wales and the creation of its devolved political institutions. Yet the 2026 Senedd election delivered a historic change: Labour lost its position as the largest party in the Welsh Parliament for the first time since devolution began.

The result marked a major turning point for Welsh politics. Plaid Cymru emerged as the largest party, while Reform UK made substantial gains. Labour suffered a dramatic decline, ending an era in which it had dominated Welsh elections for generations. The scale of the defeat raised questions about the party’s connection with its traditional supporters and its ability to rebuild its position in one of its historically strongest territories. Source: UK Parliament briefing.

Although the headline describes Labour as being on the brink of losing control, that change has already taken place. The election on 7 May 2026 transformed the political landscape and created a new challenge for Labour: understanding why so many voters turned away and deciding how the party should respond.

A Historic Break with Labour’s Welsh Dominance

Labour’s influence in Wales developed over many decades. In communities shaped by coal mining, steel production, manufacturing and trade union organisation, the party became associated with workers’ rights, public services and economic security.

That history helped Labour establish a powerful electoral base. Even when the party faced difficulties elsewhere in Britain, Wales often remained a comparatively reliable source of support.

Devolution reinforced this position. Since the establishment of the Welsh Assembly in 1999, Labour had played a central role in Welsh government, frequently leading administrations and shaping policy on health, education, transport and economic development.

However, long-standing political loyalties are not permanent. Voters increasingly judge governments on their current performance, their ability to address everyday concerns and whether they believe established parties understand their circumstances.

The 2026 election exposed the limits of Labour’s historical advantage. The party fell to just nine seats in the Senedd, while Plaid Cymru won 43 and Reform UK secured 34, according to YouGov’s post-election analysis. These results represented a profound change in the balance of power. Source: YouGov.

The defeat was not simply a disappointing election result. It demonstrated that a party’s historical identity cannot guarantee continued support when voters become dissatisfied with its record or believe alternative parties offer more relevant answers.

Why Did Labour Lose Support?

There is unlikely to be a single explanation for Labour’s collapse in Wales. Instead, the result reflected several overlapping political and social pressures.

The cost of living remains an important concern for households across Britain. Food prices, housing costs, energy bills and pressure on household budgets can influence how voters assess governments. When people feel that their financial circumstances have not improved, promises of long-term reform may struggle to outweigh immediate frustrations.

Public services also play a central role in Welsh politics. The performance of the NHS, access to appointments, waiting times, social care and educational opportunities are all issues that directly affect families.

Welsh voters may distinguish between decisions made by the UK government and those made by the Welsh Government, but the distinction does not always prevent political frustration from affecting a party at both levels. Labour has governed in Wales for much of the devolution era, meaning that voters have had years to assess its approach to devolved responsibilities.

The party also faced a wider challenge associated with its national image. When a political party controls government in London and has a long record in Cardiff, it can become difficult to present itself simultaneously as an established governing force and as a vehicle for change.

Opposition parties can exploit that tension by arguing that a different approach is necessary.

For some voters, Plaid Cymru offered a party rooted in Welsh identity and the interests of Wales. For others, Reform UK presented itself as an alternative to established political institutions. These parties appealed to different concerns, but both benefited from a political environment in which Labour’s traditional position was no longer secure.

Plaid Cymru Emerges as the Leading Force

Plaid Cymru’s success represented one of the most significant developments in the election.

The party has long argued that Wales should have greater control over its own future, but its electoral appeal also depends on practical issues such as public services, economic development, housing and household finances.

Under Rhun ap Iorwerth, Plaid Cymru sought to broaden its appeal beyond voters whose primary concern is Welsh independence. This approach gave the party an opportunity to reach people who wanted a change in government but did not necessarily support immediate constitutional separation from the United Kingdom.

The election result placed Plaid Cymru in a stronger position to shape Welsh policy and set the political agenda. However, winning the largest number of seats is not the same as having an unrestricted mandate to govern. The composition of the Senedd means that cooperation, negotiation and parliamentary support remain important.

Plaid Cymru must now demonstrate that its electoral success can translate into effective administration. Voters will expect progress on the issues that helped reshape the election, particularly the cost of living, the NHS and the performance of public services.

If the new political leadership cannot deliver tangible improvements, the same dissatisfaction that weakened Labour could eventually affect the parties now benefiting from the change.

Reform UK’s Breakthrough Changes the Political Equation

Reform UK’s performance was another defining feature of the election. Winning 34 seats gave the party a substantial presence in the Senedd and demonstrated that it could compete seriously in a territory where Labour had historically been dominant.

The result also reflected a broader change in British politics, with voters increasingly willing to consider parties outside the traditional competition between Labour and the Conservatives.

Reform has sought to appeal to people concerned about immigration, economic pressure, political accountability and the perceived failure of established institutions. These issues resonate differently across communities, and not every Reform voter will have the same priorities.

Its success in Wales nevertheless presents a challenge for Labour. The party must understand why some former supporters have moved towards Reform and whether those voters can be persuaded to return.

That requires more than criticising a rival. Labour must identify the specific concerns behind the change in support and explain how its policies would address them.

Reform, meanwhile, faces its own test. A large opposition presence brings greater public scrutiny, demands for detailed policy positions and the responsibility to demonstrate that campaign promises can be translated into credible proposals.

The election has therefore changed the responsibilities of every major party in Wales, not only Labour.

What Does the Result Mean for Keir Starmer?

The Welsh election also carried implications for Labour’s wider political identity. Even though a Senedd election concerns devolved government rather than the UK Parliament, a historic defeat in a traditional Labour stronghold can intensify scrutiny of the party’s national strategy.

For Labour’s national leadership, the central issue is whether the result reflects specifically Welsh concerns, dissatisfaction with the party’s record in government, or a broader rejection of its political direction.

Those explanations can overlap, but they do not necessarily require identical responses.

A party that loses support because of problems with local services may need to focus on delivery and accountability. A party that loses voters because of household financial pressures may need to demonstrate measurable progress on living standards. If voters believe the party no longer represents their values or priorities, the challenge becomes more fundamental.

The election also illustrates the limits of relying on historical loyalty. A political identity that once united workers, communities and trade unions may remain culturally significant while no longer determining how people vote.

For Labour, rebuilding support in Wales will require a credible explanation of what went wrong and a clear account of what it intends to change.

It would be misleading, however, to treat one devolved election as a definitive forecast of every future UK general election. Voters can make different choices depending on the responsibilities of the institution being elected, the candidates involved and the issues dominating the campaign.

The Welsh result is an important political signal, but its implications must be assessed alongside other evidence rather than treated as a guaranteed prediction of future outcomes.

Can Labour Rebuild Its Support?

Labour’s recovery will depend on whether it can regain public confidence through practical results.

First, the party must listen carefully to the communities where it lost support. That means examining local voting patterns, speaking with residents and identifying the concerns that mattered most to people who changed their votes.

Second, it needs to explain its record clearly. Voters may disagree about the causes of problems facing Wales, but they are likely to expect governments to take responsibility for decisions within their control and provide honest explanations where progress has been limited.

Third, Labour must show that its proposals can produce visible improvements. Commitments on health services, education, employment and infrastructure are more persuasive when accompanied by credible plans, realistic timelines and transparent measures of progress.

Finally, the party must decide how to reconnect with its historical base while recognising that Welsh society and its political preferences have changed. Nostalgia for past electoral success cannot replace a contemporary political offer.

Rebuilding trust will take time. The scale of the 2026 defeat suggests that Labour cannot assume that supporters who left the party will automatically return at the next opportunity.

A New Era for Welsh Politics

The end of Labour’s long-standing dominance has consequences beyond the fortunes of one political party.

The Senedd now reflects a more fragmented political landscape in which Plaid Cymru, Reform UK and smaller parties have a greater role. This may create opportunities for wider debate, but it can also make agreement on budgets, legislation and long-term priorities more complicated.

The new balance of power places pressure on parties to demonstrate that political change can deliver improvements in everyday life. Voters will be watching how the Senedd responds to demands for better public services, stronger economic opportunities and greater accountability.

For Plaid Cymru, the challenge is to show that it can lead effectively. For Reform UK, it is to demonstrate the substance of its proposals and the responsibilities that come with a large parliamentary presence. For Labour, it is to understand the scale of its defeat and develop a credible path back to relevance.

The political consequences will depend on what these parties do next, not merely on the numbers recorded on election night.

Conclusion: Labour Faces the Challenge of Rebuilding Trust

The 2026 Senedd election marked a historic turning point in Wales. Labour lost its position as the largest party, Plaid Cymru emerged in first place and Reform UK secured a major breakthrough. The result ended Labour’s long period of dominance and exposed the vulnerability of even the most established political loyalties.

For Labour, the task is now to understand the reasons for the defeat and respond with a programme that addresses the concerns of Welsh voters. That means focusing on public services, household finances, economic opportunities and the credibility of its political leadership.

For Wales, the election opened a new chapter in which political competition is more fragmented and the responsibilities of government are shared across a changed parliamentary landscape.

The decisive question is no longer whether Labour can avoid losing its historic position in the Senedd. It has already lost that position. The question now is whether the party can learn from the result, rebuild public confidence and persuade voters that it has a meaningful role in Wales’s political future.

The answer will emerge through decisions made in the months and years ahead—and through whether voters see real improvements in the issues that matter most to them.