Bombshell Poll Suggests Reform Set to Win Huge By-Election and Crush Labour
A new wave of polling has reignited speculation about Reform UK’s prospects in forthcoming Westminster contests, with Nigel Farage’s party continuing to pose a significant challenge to Labour in a number of constituencies. However, the latest evidence also shows that the electoral picture is far more complicated than claims of an imminent Reform landslide might suggest.
The political landscape has changed substantially since the summer. Andy Burnham is now Prime Minister, Labour has recovered from the difficult final months of Keir Starmer’s leadership, and Reform UK has seen its national polling position weaken from the highs recorded during 2025 and early 2026.
That does not mean Reform has disappeared as a serious electoral force. Far from it. The party remains highly competitive across large parts of England and has established itself as a major challenger to both Labour and the Conservatives. But whether that translates into a large by-election victory depends heavily on the individual constituency, candidate support, tactical voting and the number of competing parties.
A rapidly changing electoral picture
The latest national figures illustrate just how volatile British politics has become.
An Ipsos poll conducted between September 10 and 15 put Labour on 27 per cent, Reform UK on 23 per cent and the Conservatives on 21 per cent. The Greens were on 13 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 8 per cent.
A separate YouGov poll conducted on September 20 and 21 produced a much tighter result. Labour was on 23 per cent, while Reform and the Conservatives were both on 21 per cent. The Greens stood at 14 per cent and the Liberal Democrats at 12 per cent.
These numbers demonstrate why individual by-elections can produce results that look very different from national polling.
A party polling around 20 to 25 per cent nationally can potentially win a constituency if its support is concentrated geographically and its opponents divide the remaining vote. Conversely, a party with a strong national rating can lose a particular seat if tactical voting develops against it.
The Reform opportunity
Reform UK’s strongest argument is that Britain’s electoral system rewards concentrated constituency performance rather than national vote share alone.
The party has already demonstrated its ability to transform support into parliamentary representation. Nigel Farage won the Clacton by-election in August 2026, defeating Count Binface and securing a return to the House of Commons. The result gave Reform another opportunity to demonstrate that its national support could translate into constituency victories.
More in Common’s September MRP provides further evidence of Reform’s continuing reach. Its model projected Reform UK to win 147 seats if a general election were held under the conditions measured by the poll, placing it behind Labour but still far ahead of the five seats Reform won at the 2024 general election.
Importantly, the same MRP found that many of Reform’s projected victories were extremely narrow. Sixty-nine per cent of the seats projected for Reform were won by fewer than five percentage points in the model.
That creates both an opportunity and a vulnerability.
A small improvement in Reform’s support could change several constituency outcomes. But the reverse is also true: a relatively small movement away from the party could cost it numerous seats.
Labour’s recovery under Burnham
For Labour, the change of leadership has significantly altered the political environment.
Andy Burnham became Prime Minister in July after Keir Starmer resigned. Since then, Labour has recovered considerably in several opinion polls.
More in Common’s September MRP projected Labour to win 250 seats in a hypothetical general election, compared with 147 for Reform UK and 125 for the Conservatives. The model represented a major change from July, when More in Common had projected Reform on 293 seats and Labour on just 110.
The figures do not establish what would happen at a future election. They are a statistical projection based on polling and constituency-level modelling.
Nevertheless, they demonstrate that claims of Reform being certain to overwhelm Labour need to be treated cautiously.
Labour’s improvement has been particularly notable in areas outside London. More in Common found that Labour’s projected gains were concentrated in the North West, North East and Wales, regions where the party had suffered substantial losses earlier in 2026.
That geographical recovery could have major implications for future by-elections.
The importance of tactical voting
One of the most important developments in recent polling has been the evidence that voters are increasingly prepared to vote tactically.
YouGov’s September research examined hypothetical constituency contests involving Reform UK and its principal opponents. In a direct Labour-versus-Reform contest, Labour attracted 41 per cent compared with 26 per cent for Reform.
The poll also found substantial willingness among Green and Liberal Democrat voters to support Labour tactically when doing so would prevent a Reform victory.
This is particularly significant in a by-election.
General elections allow voters to consider their preferred party across a national contest. By-elections can produce a different calculation. When only two or three candidates appear capable of winning, some voters may abandon their first choice in favour of another candidate.
That means a headline showing Reform ahead in a poll does not automatically translate into a comfortable victory.
Makerfield showed how close the contest can be
The Makerfield by-election earlier in 2026 offers a useful example.
Polling conducted by UCL Policy Lab and More in Common shortly before the election showed Labour ahead of Reform UK by 45 per cent to 40 per cent, with Restore Britain on 8 per cent. Thirteen per cent of likely voters were still undecided.
Another constituency poll reported by The Independent put Labour on 46 per cent and Reform on 41 per cent, with Restore Britain on approximately 7 per cent. The report highlighted the possibility that the smaller party could influence the final result by dividing support on the right.
The example demonstrates why by-election predictions are difficult.
Even when Reform and Labour dominate the polling, the final outcome can depend on turnout, tactical behaviour, local campaigning and the performance of smaller candidates.
What the latest evidence says about Reform
The overall picture is therefore mixed.
Reform UK remains a significant electoral force. Its projected 147 seats in the latest More in Common MRP would represent a very substantial increase on its 2024 parliamentary representation. The party is also projected to finish second in numerous constituencies, giving it a large pool of potential targets.
At the same time, its national support has declined from earlier peaks.
YouGov’s September 20–21 poll placed Reform on 21 per cent, compared with 29 per cent around the same period the previous year. YouGov attributed the change to several factors, including the rise of Restore Britain, the change of prime minister and controversies surrounding Reform.
Ipsos likewise recorded Reform below Labour in September, with a four-point difference between the two parties.
This makes the phrase “crush Labour” difficult to establish from polling alone.
A contest shaped by local factors
The most important question for any forthcoming by-election is therefore not simply whether Reform is ahead nationally.
The crucial issues will be local.
Who is standing? What was the previous majority? Which parties are competing? How strong are their constituency organisations? Are voters motivated by national political issues or local concerns? And, perhaps most importantly, how many voters are prepared to vote tactically?
Those factors can transform a seemingly straightforward contest.
The latest More in Common modelling illustrates the point. Nearly half of all projected constituency victories were decided by fewer than five points, while 137 seats were within two points.
Such a political environment leaves considerable room for movement.
The bigger battle
For Nigel Farage and Reform UK, every by-election represents an opportunity to demonstrate that national support can survive the pressures of constituency politics.
For Labour, meanwhile, individual contests provide a test of whether the recovery associated with Burnham’s arrival can be sustained beyond the national polling headline.
The latest data does not establish that Reform is certain to win a major by-election, nor does it demonstrate that Labour is guaranteed to hold every vulnerable seat.
Instead, it points to an increasingly competitive electoral environment in which relatively small shifts can produce substantial changes in constituency outcomes.
The headline claim of a “bombshell poll” may therefore attract attention, but the underlying numbers tell a more nuanced story. Reform remains capable of mounting serious challenges to Labour, while Labour has recently demonstrated a capacity to recover support. With tactical voting becoming increasingly important and many constituencies sitting on narrow margins, the outcome of any individual by-election will ultimately depend on the specific local contest rather than national polling alone.
Britain’s electoral map is moving quickly. For both Reform UK and Labour, the next major test will be whether their recent polling positions can be converted into actual votes when voters enter the polling booth.
