Reform are set to bag more seats (Image: Getty)
Reform UK would win 381 seats including Angela Rayner‘s if a general election was held now, according to a new mega poll. The research of more than 16,000 Britons predicts that Nigel Farage’s insurgent party would have a majority of 112.
Labour would be down 326 seats to just 85, while the Conservatives would drop by 51 to 70. Constituencies Reform are tipped to win include Ms Rayner’s Ashton-under-Lyne seat, Chancellor Rachel Reeves‘s Leeds West and Pudsey, and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband’s Doncaster North.
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Meanwhile, prominent Tories who could be ousted include former home secretary Suella Braverman and Shadow Housing Secretary Sir James Cleverly.
The SNP would take 40, the Lib Dems 35, the Greens nine, while six would go to other parties and five to Plaid Cymru, according to the MRP poll.
More in Common UK director Luke Tryl said: “Reform continues to hold poll position in our MRP.
“Based on polling since the budget, it suggests that in an election tomorrow Reform could hope to secure a substantial three-figure majority.
“Meanwhile the Polanski surge sees the Greens continue to make gains, with disillusioned progressives putting them within shouting distance of many more gains from Labour.
“On the other hand, Labour would slump to a modern low, losing over half of the total number of seats in parliament and being reduced to just 85 MPs.
“While the Tories would lose a further 50 from their 2024 nadir, this projection actually represents an uptick in the Tories’ fortunes and signs that the Badenoch bounce may at least be stabilising their position in places like the ‘Blue Wall’ – even as they lose seats to Reform in their Brexit-voting former heartlands.”
Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s seat could go to Reform, the poll suggests (Image: Getty)
Angela Rayner’s seat could be at risk of going to Reform UK (Image: Getty)
However Mr Tryl said that tactical voting could see Reform deprived of a majority.
He said: “For the first time we have explored how tactical voting could reshape the model projections.
“It suggests the Liberal Democrats could be big winners here – and if that if tactical voting is anywhere close to the scale we saw in Caerphilly, that parties of the left could deny Reform a majority and form a rainbow coalition of their own.
“The threat of tactical voting, combined with the narrow margin of many of Reform’s projected victories, suggests their momentum may have at least temporarily stalled.
“That, combined with the fact we are still years from an election, means that despite their success in 2025, the path to the next general election is still far from known.”
Full list of seats poll says Reform would win
- Aberafan Maesteg
- Aberdeenshire North and Moray East
- Aldershot
- Aldridge-Brownhills
- Alloa and Grangemouth
- Amber Valley
- Arbroath and Broughty Ferry
- Ashfield
- Ashford
- Ashton-under-Lyne
- Aylesbury
- Banbury
- Barking
- Barnsley North
- Barnsley South
- Barrow and Furness
- Basildon and Billericay
- Basingstoke
- Bassetlaw
- Bathgate and Linlithgow
- Beverley and Holderness
- Bexhill and Battle
- Bexleyheath and Crayford
- Bicester and Woodstock
- Birkenhead
- Birmingham Erdington
- Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North
- Birmingham Northfield
- Birmingham Yardley
- Bishop Auckland
- Blackley and Middleton South
- Blackpool North and Fleetwood
- Blackpool South
- Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney
- Blaydon and Consett
- Blyth and Ashington
- Bognor Regis and Littlehampton
- Bolsover
- Bolton North East
- Bolton South and Walkden
- Bolton West
- Boston and Skegness
- Bournemouth East
- Bournemouth West
- Bracknell
- Bradford South
- Braintree
- Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe
- Brentwood and Ongar
- Bridgend
- Bridgwater
- Bridlington and The Wolds
- Brigg and Immingham
- Bristol North East
- Broadland and Fakenham
- Bromsgrove
- Broxbourne
- Broxtowe
- Buckingham and Bletchley
- Burnley
- Burton and Uttoxeter
- Bury North
- Bury South
- Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket
- Calder Valley
- Camborne and Redruth
- Cannock Chase
- Canterbury
- Cardiff West
- Carlisle
- Castle Point
- Central Ayrshire
- Central Devon
- Central Suffolk and North Ipswich
- Chatham and Aylesford
- Chester North and Neston
- Chesterfield
- Chichester
- Christchurch
- City of Durham
- Clacton
- Clwyd East
- Clwyd North
- Colchester
- Colne Valley
- Congleton
- Corby and East Northamptonshire
- Coventry East
- Coventry North West
- Coventry South
- Cramlington and Killingworth
- Crawley
- Crewe and Nantwich
- Dagenham and Rainham
- Darlington
- Dartford
- Daventry
- Derby North
- Derby South
- Derbyshire Dales
- Didcot and Wantage
- Doncaster Central
- Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme
- Doncaster North
- Dover and Deal
- Droitwich and Evesham
- Dudley
- Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard
- Easington
- East Surrey
- East Thanet
- East Worthing and Shoreham
- Eastleigh
- Ellesmere Port and Bromborough
- Eltham and Chislehurst
- Ely and East Cambridgeshire
- Erewash
- Exeter
- Exmouth and Exeter East
- Fareham and Waterlooville
- Faversham and Mid Kent
- Filton and Bradley Stoke
- Folkestone and Hythe
- Forest of Dean
- Frome and East Somerset
- Fylde
- Gainsborough
- Gateshead Central and Whickham
- Gedling
- Gillingham and Rainham
- Gloucester
- Goole and Pocklington
- Gordon and Buchan
- Gorton and Denton
- Gosport
- Gower
- Grantham and Bourne
- Gravesham
- Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes
- Great Yarmouth
- Halesowen
- Halifax
- Hamble Valley
- Harborough, Oadby and Wigston
- Harlow
- Hartlepool
- Harwich and North Essex
- Hastings and Rye
- Havant
- Hazel Grove
- Hemel Hempstead
- Hereford and South Herefordshire
- Herne Bay and Sandwich
- Hertford and Stortford
- Heywood and Middleton North
- High Peak
- Hinckley and Bosworth
- Hitchin
- Honiton and Sidmouth
- Hornchurch and Upminster
- Houghton and Sunderland South
- Huddersfield
- Huntingdon
- Hyndburn
- Ipswich
- Isle of Wight East
- Isle of Wight West
- Jarrow and Gateshead East
- Kettering
- Kingston upon Hull East
- Kingston upon Hull North and Cottingham
- Kingston upon Hull West and Haltemprice
- Kingswinford and South Staffordshire
- Lancaster and Wyre
- Leeds Central and Headingley
- Leeds East
- Leeds South West and Morley
- Leeds South
- Leeds West and Pudsey
- Leicester West
- Leigh and Atherton
- Lichfield
- Lincoln
- Llanelli
- Lothian East
- Loughborough
- Louth and Horncastle
- Lowestoft
- Luton North
- Luton South and South Bedfordshire
- Macclesfield
- Maidstone and Malling
- Makerfield
- Maldon
- Manchester Central
- Mansfield
- Melton and Syston
- Meriden and Solihull East
- Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare
- Mid and South Pembrokeshire
- Mid Bedfordshire
- Mid Cheshire
- Mid Derbyshire
- Mid Leicestershire
- Mid Norfolk
- Mid Sussex
- Middlesbrough and Thornaby East
- Milton Keynes Central
- Milton Keynes North
- Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr
- Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey
- Morecambe and Lunesdale
- Neath and Swansea East
- New Forest East
- New Forest West
- Newark
- Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West
- Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend
- Newcastle-under-Lyme
- Newport East
- Newton Abbot
- Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor
- Normanton and Hemsworth
- North Bedfordshire
- North Cornwall
- North Devon
- North Dorset
- North Durham
- North East Cambridgeshire
- North East Derbyshire
- North East Hertfordshire
- North East Somerset and Hanham
- North Northumberland
- North Shropshire
- North Somerset
- North Warwickshire and Bedworth
- North West Cambridgeshire
- North West Essex
- North West Hampshire
- North West Leicestershire
- North West Norfolk
- Northampton North
- Northampton South
- Norwich North
- Nottingham North and Kimberley
- Nottingham South
- Nuneaton
- Old Bexley and Sidcup
- Oldham East and Saddleworth
- Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton
- Orpington
- Ossett and Denby Dale
- Pendle and Clitheroe
- Penistone and Stocksbridge
- Penrith and Solway
- Peterborough
- Plymouth Moor View
- Plymouth Sutton and Devonport
- Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley
- Pontypridd
- Poole
- Portsmouth North
- Portsmouth South
- Preston
- Rawmarsh and Conisbrough
- Rayleigh and Wickford
- Redcar
- Redditch
- Rhondda and Ogmore
- Ribble Valley
- Rochdale
- Rochester and Strood
- Romford
- Rossendale and Darwen
- Rother Valley
- Rotherham
- Rugby
- Runcorn and Helsby
- Rushcliffe
- Salford
- Scarborough and Whitby
- Scunthorpe
- Selby
- Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough
- Sheffield Heeley
- Sheffield South East
- Sherwood Forest
- Shipley
- Shrewsbury
- Sittingbourne and Sheppey
- Skipton and Ripon
- Sleaford and North Hykeham
- Smethwick
- South Basildon and East Thurrock
- South Derbyshire
- South Dorset
- South East Cornwall
- South Holland and The Deepings
- South Leicestershire
- South Norfolk
- South Northamptonshire
- South Ribble
- South Shields
- South Suffolk
- South West Devon
- South West Norfolk
- South West Wiltshire
- Southampton Itchen
- Southampton Test
- Southend East and Rochford
- Southend West and Leigh
- Southport
- Spelthorne
- Spen Valley
- St Austell and Newquay
- St Helens North
- St Helens South and Whiston
- St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire
- Stafford
- Staffordshire Moorlands
- Stalybridge and Hyde
- Stevenage
- Stockport
- Stockton North
- Stockton West
- Stoke-on-Trent Central
- Stoke-on-Trent North
- Stoke-on-Trent South
- Stourbridge
- Stratford-on-Avon
- Stroud
- Suffolk Coastal
- Sunderland Central
- Sussex Weald
- Sutton Coldfield
- Swansea West
- Swindon North
- Swindon South
- Tamworth
- Telford
- Tewkesbury
- The Wrekin
- Thurrock
- Tipton and Wednesbury
- Tiverton and Minehead
- Torbay
- Torfaen
- Torridge and Tavistock
- Truro and Falmouth
- Tunbridge Wells
- Tynemouth
- Vale of Glamorgan
- Wakefield and Rothwell
- Walsall and Bloxwich
- Warrington North
- Warrington South
- Washington and Gateshead South
- Watford
- Wellingborough and Rushden
- Welwyn Hatfield
- West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
- West Bromwich
- West Lancashire
- West Suffolk
- Weston-super-Mare
- Whitehaven and Workington
- Widnes and Halewood
- Wigan
- Witham
- Wolverhampton North East
- Wolverhampton South East
- Wolverhampton West
- Worcester
- Worsley and Eccles
- Worthing West
- Wrexham
- Wycombe
- Wyre Forest
- Wythenshawe and Sale East
- York Central
- York Outer
Reform Tipped to Win 381 Seats at Election Including Rayner’s and Reeves’s
A dramatic electoral projection has put Reform UK on course for 381 seats in a hypothetical general election, with several senior Labour figures among those projected to lose their constituencies.
The figure comes from a January 2026 MRP model produced by More in Common. The analysis was based on polling of more than 16,000 people and modelled what the parliamentary result might look like if an election were held at that point. It projected Reform UK to win 381 seats, equivalent to a majority of 112 over all other parties combined.
The projection attracted particular attention because of the number of Labour-held constituencies that were shown changing hands.
Among the prominent names facing defeat in the model were senior Labour politicians, including Rachel Reeves. Other senior figures were also placed in vulnerable seats, illustrating how widely Reform’s projected support had spread across the electoral map.
However, an MRP projection should not be confused with an election result. It is a statistical model based on polling, demographic information and assumptions about how voting behaviour translates into individual constituencies. Changes in public opinion, candidates, campaigning, tactical voting and events between the survey period and an actual election can substantially alter such projections.
That distinction is particularly important in a rapidly changing political environment.
The 381-seat projection
More in Common’s January model represented a striking change from the 2024 general election.
At that election, Labour won 411 seats while Reform UK secured five. Reform’s projected 381 seats in the January MRP therefore represented an enormous hypothetical shift in the composition of the House of Commons.
The model projected Reform to win around 60 per cent of parliamentary seats on approximately 31 per cent of the vote. More in Common described the result as highly disproportionate, reflecting the characteristics of Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system.
Under this scenario, Reform would not simply be winning traditionally Conservative territory.
The model suggested the party could make substantial gains in Labour constituencies as well.
That is one of the most important aspects of the projection. It indicates that Reform’s potential electoral challenge was not confined to the Conservative Party or to traditionally right-leaning constituencies.
Instead, the model suggested that parts of Labour’s 2024 electoral coalition could also be vulnerable.
Rachel Reeves among the names at risk
Rachel Reeves’s constituency was among those highlighted in reporting on the January MRP.
The London Standard reported that Reeves was projected to lose Leeds West and Pudsey, while the wider model showed Reform making significant gains in Labour-held seats.
This illustrates the scale of the hypothetical shift.
Reeves had been elected as Labour MP for Leeds West and Pudsey in 2024, when Labour won a large parliamentary majority nationally. A model subsequently projecting the seat changing hands to Reform therefore represents a major movement in the estimated voting landscape.
But it does not mean that the constituency was guaranteed to change hands.
MRP models estimate constituency outcomes from polling data. They do not account perfectly for every local factor, and the longer the period between the survey and an actual election, the greater the uncertainty.
This is especially relevant because British political conditions can change rapidly.
Angela Rayner and Labour’s wider challenge
The headline also draws attention to Angela Rayner and the wider vulnerability of senior Labour figures.
The significance of such projections goes beyond individual politicians.
When a model shows senior ministers losing their constituencies, it suggests that the political change being modelled is broad enough to affect members of the governing party’s front bench rather than simply a handful of marginal MPs.
Previous More in Common MRP models have produced similar warnings, although the precise seat totals have changed considerably over time.
For example, the organisation’s September 2025 MRP projected 373 seats for Reform, compared with 90 for Labour. By July 2026, its model had reduced Reform’s projected total to 293 seats, while Labour’s position had also changed.
The movement between those models demonstrates why individual projections should be treated as snapshots rather than permanent forecasts.
Reform’s rise was not limited to one region
The January model suggested that Reform’s potential support extended across several different types of constituency.
The party was projected to make gains in coastal communities, former industrial areas, market towns and parts of the suburbs. Reporting on the model also highlighted potential gains in London.
The London Standard said Reform was projected to win eight constituencies in the capital under the January scenario, although Labour would still retain a substantial number of London seats.
That matters because London’s electoral geography has traditionally been difficult territory for parties on the political right.
A model showing Reform gaining seats there therefore reflected an assumption of significant movement in voting behaviour.
Again, however, the figures should be interpreted as modelled outcomes rather than evidence that those results were inevitable.
Why first-past-the-post matters
The 381-seat figure also demonstrates the importance of Britain’s electoral system.
Under first-past-the-post, parties do not receive parliamentary seats in direct proportion to their national vote share.
A party can therefore secure a large parliamentary majority without receiving anything close to 50 per cent of the national vote.
More in Common’s January model illustrated this clearly. Reform was projected to receive approximately 31 per cent of the vote while taking 381 seats.
The distribution of votes matters enormously.
If a party narrowly finishes first in many constituencies, it can win considerably more seats than its national vote share might suggest.
Conversely, a party can receive millions of votes but win relatively few seats if its support is concentrated inefficiently across constituencies.
This is why national polling numbers alone cannot provide a complete picture of the possible parliamentary result.
Tactical voting adds another variable
Another important factor is tactical voting.
More in Common’s January analysis specifically discussed the potential effect of voters choosing candidates who are best placed to defeat Reform in individual constituencies. The organisation noted that tactical voting could materially change the projected outcome.
That makes the electoral picture even more complicated.
Suppose Labour, Green and Liberal Democrat voters in a constituency believe Reform is the strongest challenger to the incumbent party. Some voters may decide to support whichever opposition candidate appears best placed locally.
But tactical voting depends on voters having accurate information about the local contest.
It can also vary considerably from one constituency to another.
Consequently, a national MRP projection cannot fully capture the strategic behaviour that might occur during an actual election campaign.
The numbers have already changed
Perhaps the clearest warning against treating the 381-seat projection as a fixed prediction comes from More in Common’s later models.
Its July 2026 MRP projected Reform on 293 seats rather than 381. That model described Reform as still the largest party in its scenario but 33 seats short of a majority. It also recorded gains by the Conservatives compared with earlier projections.
The organisation said Reform had lost 88 projected seats compared with its January model.
That is a substantial movement.
It demonstrates how quickly constituency projections can change as voting intentions shift.
More recent polling has also shown a competitive three-way contest rather than a settled electoral picture. A YouGov poll conducted on 20–21 September 2026 put Labour on 23 per cent, with Reform UK and the Conservatives both on 21 per cent.
These figures are not directly comparable with an MRP seat projection, but they underline the changing nature of the political landscape.
What the projection tells us
The importance of the 381-seat figure is therefore less about whether exactly 381 Reform MPs would be elected and more about what the model was showing about the distribution of political support at that particular moment.
It suggested Reform had moved beyond being primarily a challenger to the Conservatives.
Under that scenario, Labour-held constituencies were also exposed, including seats associated with prominent members of the government.
That creates a very different political environment from the one that produced Labour’s 2024 majority.
But the subsequent movement in MRP estimates shows that the political map remains fluid.
A projected seat can move from one party to another as polling changes. New candidates can alter local contests. Tactical voting can affect marginal constituencies. National events can transform voting intentions. Parties can gain or lose support during election campaigns.
For that reason, the 381-seat figure should be understood as a snapshot of a particular modelling exercise rather than a prediction of an eventual election result.
What it nevertheless demonstrates is the scale of the potential electoral realignment that Reform UK was capable of generating in the January 2026 model.
The projected losses for senior Labour figures such as Rachel Reeves made the headline particularly striking. But the wider story was the changing geography of British politics: constituencies that once appeared relatively secure could become competitive, while traditional party loyalties could no longer be assumed.
The eventual parliamentary balance will depend on voters, constituency contests and the political circumstances at the time an election is actually held.
For now, the contrasting MRP projections—from 381 Reform seats in January to 293 in July—provide a useful reminder that Britain’s electoral map remains highly changeable.