Nigel Farage is odds-on to become the next prime minister (Image: Getty)
For the tens of millions who exist outside the Westminster bubble, and inhabit a world of daily struggle, the defection of Robert Jenrick from the Conservatives to Reform was met with a collective shrug of the shoulders.
For them it was not exactly the political earthquake it has been portrayed as.
In the space of barely a fortnight three ex-Tories have joined Nigel Farage’s pop-up party and this perhaps presents his greatest problem.
Before Jenrick there was Nadhim Zahawi, and after him, Andrew Rosindell. It is not, despite what some might think, a collection of big beasts.
Since it was founded in 2018 Reform has sold itself as a new broom – a right-wing populist political party different to the Tories.
But that is going to be a hard sell with this trio signing up to a movement that is already home to former Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries, and Conservative has-beens Dame Andrea Jenkyns, Danny Kruger, Lee Anderson, Jonathan Gullis, Sir Jake Berry, Maria Caulfield, and, er, Lia Nici.
Voters aren’t stupid and will see Mr Farage – himself a paid-up Tory member between 1978 and 1992 – and his party as trying to reinvent the wheel.
Focus groups are picking this up and stating the obvious.
Respected pollster Lord Ashcroft, former deputy chairman of the Conservative Party but hardly a friend of it, says voters have seen recent manoeuvres as a reflection of the defector’s self-serving calculations rather than anything to do with principle or conviction.
Turncoat Tory: Jenrick lost the Tory leadership race in 2024 (Image: Getty)
Get the latest politics news – straight from our team in Westminster and more
Invalid email
You agree you are 18 or over. We use your sign-up to provide content in ways you’ve consented to and to improve our understanding of you. This may include adverts from us and third parties based on our knowledge of you. You can unsubscribe at any time. More Info.
Shape-shifting former immigration minister Jenrick had found himself frustrated since being marginalised in the Tory Party.
He was beaten by Kemi Badenoch for the leadership in 2024. Had he won that contest, one suspects this Damascene conversion would not have taken place.
But ever since he has been pumping out video after video – on topics including stolen goods being flogged at Sunday morning car boot sales to pitching up in Calais to talk about the migrant crisis shambles he is in part responsible for.
In Newark, the constituency he has represented since 2014, he holds a majority of 3,572.
In Romford, Rosindell has a 1,463 vote advantage.
Had they stayed as Tories it is likely they would have been defeated… by Reform.
Yet both have stuck two fingers up to those they represent by refusing to stand in by-elections.
For a party we repeatedly hear is founded on the principles of free speech, fair play, and justice, that seems a trifle rum.
Zahawi, who less than 48 hours after being made Chancellor after the resignation of Rishi Sunak stuck the knife into Boris Johnson and publicly called on him to resign, left the Commons before the general election in 2024.
It is true that Mr Farage has benefitted from the appalling chaos unleashed on Britain stretching back to before the EU referendum was held in 2016.
His life’s work in taking Britain out of the EU was finally realised in that seismic result but when, and it seems it is a case of when, he makes it to Number 10 he will find that talk is cheap.
The reality is Britain is unlikely to leave the European Convention on Human Rights, the apparent cause of our problems – particularly borders and immigration.
Mr Farage argues exiting the ECHR and its associated Human Rights Act would allow Britain to deport more asylum seekers and illegal immigrants, returning power over these decisions to Parliament.
But, as Brexit has shown, he is likely to face significant political, legal, and public opposition.
And there is his trouble. The two party system might be dead, the deep-rooted issues will remain.
With each passing week Reform is looking less like the home of fresh ideas but more the new des res of failed ex-Conservatives.
To voters these defections look like a bid to save careers on one hand, and fill potential ministerial holes with frontline experience on the other. It is a marriage of convenience rather than love at first sight.
Inside Westminster all this creates palpable excitement.
But is that true in Britain’s forgotten towns, places like Blackpool, Barnsley, or Bognor?
Mr Farage famously turned his back on Europe – and is no fan of the French in particular – but one phrase seems to sum up this never-ending political soap opera: Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose (the more things change, the more they stay the same).
Farage Will Be the UK’s Next Prime Minister – But He’s Got 1 Huge Problem to Overcome
Nigel Farage has spent much of his political career trying to transform himself from an outsider into a politician capable of entering Downing Street. After years of campaigning on Brexit, immigration and opposition to the political establishment, the Reform UK leader is now openly presenting his party as a potential governing force.
But the political landscape in Britain has changed rapidly. Reform has made substantial gains in local and devolved elections, while Farage has become one of the country’s most recognisable political figures. At the same time, recent polling shows that his biggest challenge may not be building attention. It may be convincing enough voters that he is personally suitable for the job of prime minister.
That is the central problem facing Farage as he attempts to turn Reform’s electoral momentum into a national governing mandate.
From outsider to potential prime minister
Farage’s political journey has always been closely connected to the idea that Britain’s traditional parties failed to respond to public concerns about immigration, the European Union and national sovereignty.
The Brexit campaign gave him enormous visibility, but leaving the European Union did not end his political ambitions. Instead, Farage eventually returned to frontline politics as leader of Reform UK, arguing that the Conservatives had failed to deliver the changes many Brexit supporters expected.
Reform’s recent electoral progress has strengthened that argument.
The party performed strongly in the 2026 local and devolved elections. According to Sky News analysis, Reform gained more than 1,400 seats in England’s local elections and took control of 14 councils. In Wales, it won 34 of 96 Senedd seats and became the main opposition party.
Those results demonstrate that Reform is no longer simply a protest movement operating at the margins of British politics.
Farage himself has also made his ambitions clear. His party’s September conference included a detailed programme for what Reform says it would attempt to accomplish during its first 100 days in government.
The proposals include stopping small-boat crossings, reducing energy bills, changing the country’s approach to Net Zero and increasing domestic training for NHS staff.
The message is straightforward: Reform wants voters to think about the party not simply as a vehicle for protest, but as a government-in-waiting.
Yet that transformation presents Farage with a difficult test.
The biggest obstacle may be Farage himself
A political party can campaign successfully by attracting voters who are dissatisfied with the existing system. Governing a country requires something different.
A prime minister must persuade voters beyond the party’s natural supporters that they can lead the entire country.
Recent polling indicates that Farage has struggled to make that transition.
YouGov’s September assessment found that only 19% of Britons regarded Farage as a “prime minister in waiting”, while 66% did not think he had the top job in him. The figure for Farage had fallen seven points since June.
Another YouGov survey conducted in August asked voters to compare potential leaders directly. In a hypothetical head-to-head with Labour leader Andy Burnham, 52% said Burnham would make the better prime minister compared with 22% for Farage.
These figures do not determine what will happen at a future general election. They do, however, illustrate the gap between Reform’s political visibility and Farage’s personal acceptability to the wider electorate.
That gap is potentially crucial.
Reform’s polling position has become more complicated
Reform also faces a broader challenge.
For much of the previous year, the party was regularly at or near the top of voting-intention polls. But that position has weakened.
An Ipsos poll conducted between September 10 and 15 put Labour four points ahead of Reform.
A separate YouGov poll conducted on September 20 and 21 put Labour on 23%, with Reform and the Conservatives both on 21%. The result represented Reform’s lowest YouGov voting-intention figure since polling resumed after the general election, according to The Times.
The numbers are only snapshots of public opinion, and they can change substantially before an election. Nevertheless, they show why Farage cannot simply assume that Reform’s earlier momentum will automatically translate into a parliamentary majority.
The political challenge is therefore twofold: Reform must maintain support as a party while Farage must persuade voters who remain uncertain about him personally.
Immigration remains central to Reform’s strategy
One area where Farage has consistently maintained a clear political message is immigration.
Reform has made reducing illegal migration one of its central priorities. At the party’s September conference, Farage pledged that a Reform government would stop small boats within its first 100 days. The party has also proposed leaving the European Convention on Human Rights and changing domestic human-rights legislation.
For Reform supporters, these policies represent a fundamental change in Britain’s approach to immigration and national sovereignty.
For opponents, they raise difficult legal, diplomatic and practical questions.
This makes immigration both an electoral asset and a potential obstacle for Farage.
The issue can mobilise voters who believe successive governments have failed to control Britain’s borders. But the more detailed Reform’s programme becomes, the more voters can scrutinise the legal mechanisms, costs and consequences of implementing it.
That is the difference between campaigning and governing.
The Conservatives are another problem
Farage’s route to Downing Street is also complicated by the Conservative Party.
Reform’s rise has taken support from traditional Conservative voters, but the Conservatives remain a major competitor for voters on the political right.
The relationship became particularly significant after senior Conservative figures moved towards Reform.
Robert Jenrick’s defection to Reform was followed by Suella Braverman’s move to the party in January 2026. Braverman argued that the Conservatives had failed to deliver on immigration and the European Convention on Human Rights. Reuters reported that Reform had eight MPs following her defection.
For Farage, such defections provide evidence that his party can attract experienced politicians from established parties.
But they also create a complicated strategic question.
If Reform and the Conservatives continue competing for similar voters, support on the right could remain divided. Recent polling showing the two parties level at 21% illustrates how significant that competition has become.
Farage therefore needs not only to attract former Conservative voters, but also to establish Reform as a credible governing alternative rather than simply another opposition party.
Trust could decide the argument
The most difficult challenge may ultimately be trust.
YouGov’s September research found that around six in ten Britons described Reform UK as untrustworthy, while only 19% believed Farage looked like a prime minister in waiting.
That creates a fundamental political problem.
Farage has spent years arguing that voters should distrust the established parties. Now he is asking some of those same voters to trust him with government.
That requires more than strong speeches and controversial headlines.
It requires detailed policies on taxation, healthcare, housing, defence, public services, economic growth and the cost of government. Reform will also have to demonstrate that its candidates, MPs and local representatives can operate effectively within a national governing structure.
Farage has increasingly recognised this issue. His “first 100 days” programme is an attempt to demonstrate that Reform has moved beyond protest politics and developed a governing agenda.
Whether voters accept that argument remains an open question.
The road to Downing Street is still uncertain
It is tempting to describe Farage’s rise as an inevitable march towards Number 10.
The available evidence does not justify that certainty.
Reform has clearly become an important force in British politics. Its election results, parliamentary defections and continuing national visibility demonstrate that. But recent polling also shows significant resistance to Farage personally and continuing competition from Labour and the Conservatives.
The next stage of Farage’s political career will therefore be less about proving that he can attract attention and more about demonstrating that he can broaden his appeal.
His biggest problem is not necessarily getting people to listen.
It is getting enough people who currently disagree with him, distrust him or simply do not regard him as prime-ministerial material to reconsider.
That is a much harder political task.
Farage has spent decades trying to reshape British politics from the outside. Reform’s recent successes mean he is now much closer to the centre of the political contest than ever before.
But the final step—from being the politician who challenges the establishment to being the politician voters are prepared to put in charge of the government—requires something fundamentally different.
And that is the challenge that will define whether Farage’s ambitions for Downing Street become reality or remain one of the most consequential “what ifs” in modern British politics.