Nigel Farage Campaigns In Gorton And Denton Ahead Of By-election (Image: Getty)

Professor Robert Ford, an elections expert at the University of Manchester, said the result was a “nightmare scenario” for the Government.

“They have fallen into the electoral Valley of Death. Rejected in the centre. Rejected on the right. And now rejected on the left,” he said.

But Labour’s share of the vote almost halved, falling from 50.7% in 2024 to 25.4% in the by-election, a drop of 25.3 percentage points.

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Richard Burgon, secretary of the Socialist Campaign Group of MPs on the party’s left, said: “Blame for Labour’s defeat lies squarely with Keir Starmer and his clique.

“They put factional interests over having the candidate best placed to win, Andy Burnham.”

But even without Mr Burnham waiting in the wings in Westminster, the defeat will inevitably further weaken Sir Keir’s grip on power.

Labour’s deputy leader Lucy Powell, MP for Manchester Central, has warned Sir Keir he cannot “out-Reform Reform” and the by-election result will add weight to internal criticism of the leader’s strategy.

May’s elections in Scotland, Wales and councils across England could now prove terminal for Sir Keir.

Professor Ford said they could prove “apocalyptic” if the Green surge is repeated in areas such as the London boroughs, Birmingham and other urban areas.

He warned Labour also risked being “wiped out” by Reform in areas of the so-called Red Wall in northern England.

John Curtice Issues Warning Not to Write Off Reform as Greens Gloat

The Green Party’s victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election has generated plenty of headlines about a changing British political landscape, but Professor Sir John Curtice has offered an important qualification: the result should not automatically be interpreted as evidence that Reform UK has lost its momentum.

Hannah Spencer’s victory was undoubtedly significant. The Greens secured 14,980 votes, representing 40.7 per cent of the total, while Reform UK finished second with 10,578 votes, or 28.7 per cent. Labour was pushed into third place on 9,364 votes, equivalent to 25.4 per cent.

The figures gave the Greens their first Westminster by-election victory and their first parliamentary seat in northern England. But Curtice’s analysis placed the result within a broader electoral picture rather than treating one constituency as a definitive verdict on the future of Reform.

That distinction matters because Gorton and Denton was an unusual contest, with three parties competing seriously for support and with local political, demographic and campaign factors playing an important role.

The Greens’ Historic Breakthrough

The scale of the Green victory was striking.

Spencer overturned a Labour majority of more than 13,000 votes from the 2024 general election and secured a majority of 4,402 over Reform. Labour, which had represented the constituency for decades, fell to third place.

The result represented a dramatic increase in the Green vote. The party’s share rose by more than 27 percentage points compared with the 2024 contest, according to Curtice’s analysis. Labour’s share, meanwhile, fell from 50.8 per cent to 25.4 per cent.

For Green supporters, the outcome was an opportunity to argue that the party had moved beyond its traditional electoral base.

The Greens had historically been strongest in particular parts of southern England, but Spencer’s victory demonstrated that the party could also win in a northern constituency.

Green Party leader Zack Polanski celebrated the result as evidence that his party could challenge the established political order. Supporters pointed to the size of the majority and the fact that the Greens had defeated both Reform and Labour.

Yet the significance of the result for the Greens should not automatically be confused with evidence of a nationwide electoral transformation. A by-election has its own circumstances, including candidate selection, turnout, tactical voting and the intensity of campaigning.

Curtice’s Warning About Reform

This is where John Curtice’s analysis becomes particularly relevant.

The veteran elections expert highlighted the extraordinary nature of Labour’s defeat but also placed Reform’s performance in context.

Reform did not win Gorton and Denton, but it secured 28.7 per cent of the vote and finished more than 1,200 votes ahead of Labour.

The party’s vote share was also substantially higher than it had achieved in the constituency at the 2024 general election.

That means the result cannot simply be described as a collapse in Reform support.

Indeed, the Guardian’s analysis of Curtice’s assessment noted that the swing towards Reform in Gorton and Denton was broadly consistent with the movement the party had been recording elsewhere, while the Green Party significantly outperformed its national polling in the constituency.

That distinction provides a more complicated picture.

The Greens had an exceptionally strong local result. Reform continued to attract a substantial share of the vote. Labour suffered the most dramatic decline among the three principal parties.

Consequently, the numbers do not provide a straightforward basis for declaring one party’s national prospects over.

Why the Constituency Mattered

Gorton and Denton has characteristics that make the result especially interesting.

The constituency combines different communities and political traditions. Denton contains areas with a strong working-class identity, while Gorton has a more diverse population and has historically been strongly associated with Labour.

Reform performed particularly strongly in Denton, while the Greens made significant gains across the constituency.

The political geography therefore mattered.

Curtice argued that Labour’s traditional electoral coalition had come under pressure from two directions. Working-class voters who had historically supported Labour were increasingly open to Reform, while some minority ethnic voters who had also formed part of Labour’s traditional coalition were moving towards other parties.

The result thus illustrated the fragmentation of Labour’s old coalition rather than simply demonstrating a direct Green-versus-Reform contest.

The Muslim Vote and Gaza

One of the most discussed aspects of the campaign was the movement among Muslim voters.

Reports following the election indicated that some Muslim voters cited Keir Starmer’s position on Gaza when explaining their decision to move away from Labour. The Greens campaigned actively among Muslim communities, including distributing campaign material in Urdu.

This was particularly relevant because Gorton has a substantial minority ethnic population.

For Labour, losing support in this part of its traditional electoral coalition represented a serious local challenge. For the Greens, meanwhile, the result demonstrated the potential importance of issues that extend beyond the party’s traditional emphasis on environmental policy.

Spencer’s campaign focused heavily on household finances, public services, communities and living standards.

That broader approach helped the Greens present themselves as a general political alternative rather than solely as an environmental party.

Reform’s Second-Place Finish

Reform’s second-place finish deserves separate attention.

Matt Goodwin received 10,578 votes, putting Reform ahead of Labour by 1,214 votes.

For a party seeking to expand its support across former Labour constituencies, the result provided evidence of continuing electoral strength in parts of northern England.

Reform’s campaign concentrated heavily on immigration, national identity and dissatisfaction with the political establishment.

Goodwin subsequently argued that Reform’s performance showed the party could compete in areas that had historically been considered secure Labour territory.

However, the Greens demonstrated that Reform was not the only challenger capable of benefiting from dissatisfaction with Labour.

That is one of the most important lessons from Gorton and Denton.

A Three-Way Political Contest

For much of Britain’s modern political history, Labour and the Conservatives dominated parliamentary elections.

Gorton and Denton produced a very different picture.

The Greens won 40.7 per cent, Reform took 28.7 per cent and Labour received 25.4 per cent. Together, the Greens and Reform accounted for more than two-thirds of the vote, while Labour and the Conservatives collectively received considerably less.

Curtice described the result as evidence that the old two-party structure had weakened considerably.

The significance is not simply that the Greens won.

It is that neither Labour nor the Conservatives finished in the top two. Apart from the exceptional circumstances surrounding the 2024 Rochdale by-election, Curtice noted that this was the first modern by-election in which neither of the two traditionally dominant parties occupied one of the top two positions.

That makes Gorton and Denton an important case study in political fragmentation.

Why One By-Election Cannot Settle Reform’s Future

The temptation after a dramatic by-election is to treat the result as a national political forecast.

But by-elections do not replicate general elections.

Turnout is often lower. Local candidates can have an unusually strong or weak personal appeal. Campaign resources are concentrated in one constituency. Tactical voting can become particularly important. National issues may also be interpreted through a very local political lens.

For those reasons, the Gorton and Denton result can provide evidence about changing voter behaviour without providing a definitive answer about what would happen across hundreds of constituencies.

That is particularly important when assessing Reform.

The party’s 28.7 per cent vote share was substantial, even though it was not enough to win this particular seat.

At the same time, the Greens’ 40.7 per cent demonstrates that Reform faces competition from more than just Labour and the Conservatives.

The Greens’ Celebration and the Broader Picture

Green supporters understandably celebrated Spencer’s victory.

The party had achieved something it had never previously managed in a Westminster by-election: winning a seat in this manner. The result also gave the Greens a fifth MP and their first northern Westminster representative.

But the broader political picture is more complicated than the celebratory headlines suggest.

Reform was not eliminated from the contest. It finished second and increased its vote share substantially compared with 2024.

Labour, rather than Reform, experienced the most dramatic fall.

And the Greens’ performance was significantly stronger than their national polling position at the time, according to analysis cited by the Guardian.

These details matter because they prevent the result from being reduced to a simple story about one party replacing another.

A Warning for All Three Parties

The Gorton and Denton by-election therefore presents different messages for different parties.

For the Greens, it demonstrates the potential value of a strong local campaign, an appealing candidate and an ability to attract voters beyond the party’s traditional image.

For Reform, it demonstrates that the party can secure a substantial vote in a traditionally Labour constituency even when it does not win.

For Labour, it demonstrates the difficulty of maintaining support when voters have credible alternatives on both the left and right.

And for the Conservatives, the result was particularly severe. Their candidate received only 706 votes, or 1.9 per cent, meaning the party lost its deposit.

The wider lesson is that Britain’s electoral landscape is becoming more fragmented.

John Curtice’s analysis is therefore important precisely because it resists a simplistic interpretation. The Green victory was historic, but Reform’s second-place finish cannot simply be dismissed. Labour’s decline was substantial, while the Conservatives suffered an exceptionally weak result.

The Gorton and Denton by-election did not determine the future balance of British politics. What it did provide was a detailed snapshot of voters moving in different directions at the same time.

The Greens have reason to celebrate a major parliamentary breakthrough. Reform has evidence of continued support in a former Labour stronghold. Labour has evidence that its traditional coalition is under pressure.

For observers trying to understand Britain’s next political phase, those three facts are more revealing than any single headline.

And that is why Curtice’s warning matters: a Green victory can be historically important without, by itself, proving that Reform’s electoral momentum has disappeared.

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