Kemi Badenoch celebrates huge breakthrough as mega-poll shows her beating Nigel Farage

Kemi Badenoch would lead Britain’s second biggest party, bumping Nigel Farage into third place, if an election was called today according to a new poll. Meanwhile Prime Minister Andy Burnham would need to call in help from the Liberal Democrats or Zack Polanski’s Green Party to keep his job.

Polling from YouGov suggests that Mrs Badenoch’s Conservative Party could gain seats, improving on their disastrous 2024 General Election result. Mr Farage’s Reform UK would have a good day at the polls as well, storming up to 123 seats but leaving no party on the Right large enough to kick Labour out of Downing Street.

The latest poll breaks down results seat by seat and creates a headache for Tory defectors Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman.

Having moved over to Reform UK earlier this year, the pair are predicted to lose their respective seats to their old party, the Conservatives.

New data also reveals that even with a pact stitched up after polling day, neither Reform nor the Tories would be able to form a majority even when allied.

Labour would face a bloodbath, collapsing from 403 seats and losing 162 as Mr Burnham’s polling “bounce” fails to mean they can stay in power alone.

Mr Burnham would need to do a deal with both the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party, meaning he could rely on Sir Ed Davey’s 71 seats and nine Mr Polanski is expected to take home.

Such a deal would likely mean Mr Burnham would need to compromise with a party whose policies include legalising cocaine.

The poll, one of the most comprehensive conducted since the election, marks a low point for Reform when compared to other data which normally had them ahead.

A similar poll by the same firm last year showed Reform UK on 311 seats and therefore able to form a government.

Now they have dropped into third place, showing that in a split race, the result can go either way and fortunes can rapidly reverse.