Yet Another Blow for Keir Starmer from Reform in Latest Turquoise Tidal Wave
Reform UK has continued to make significant gains across local government, adding to the political pressure surrounding Prime Minister Keir Starmer after a dramatic series of election results transformed the political map in parts of England.
The phrase “turquoise tidal wave” has increasingly been used to describe Reform’s advance, particularly after the May 2026 local elections. The party won more than 1,400 council seats across England and established control of several councils, while also making substantial gains in areas that had traditionally been associated with Labour or the Conservatives.
One of the clearest examples came in Wakefield, where Reform now holds 56 of the council’s 63 seats. The council had previously been controlled by Labour throughout its existence as a metropolitan district. The scale of the change prompted the BBC to examine the reasons behind Labour’s collapse in support in parts of the city.
For Starmer and Labour, these results represent an important challenge at local level. However, local election results should not automatically be interpreted as a direct prediction of future general-election outcomes. They reflect local candidates, turnout, campaign issues and the particular electoral system used in each contest.
Nevertheless, the scale of Reform’s gains has changed the political conversation.
Reform’s breakthrough across former Labour territory
Perhaps the most striking element of Reform’s advance has been its performance in communities with long histories of voting Labour.
Wakefield is a particularly notable example.
For decades, Labour had been deeply embedded in many communities across the district, especially in former mining areas. Yet the May elections produced a dramatic change.
The BBC reported that Reform took 56 of the 63 seats on Wakefield Council, while Labour’s support fell sharply in some wards. In South Elmsall and South Kirkby, for example, Labour’s share dropped from 73 per cent in 2024 to 21 per cent in 2026.
Such figures provide a clear illustration of how dramatically local voting patterns can change.
Former Labour supporters interviewed by the BBC gave a range of reasons for switching to Reform, including concerns about immigration, the cost of living and dissatisfaction with the Government.
One former lifelong Labour voter, Ray Sykes, told the BBC that the 2026 local election was the first time he had voted for another party. Other residents expressed similar dissatisfaction, although not every voter interviewed supported Reform.
The results therefore cannot be reduced to a single explanation.
Economic concerns, perceptions of public services, immigration, national leadership and local issues can all influence voting behaviour.
Reform also reaches Conservative territory
The Reform advance has not been limited to Labour areas.
The party has also made major gains in traditional Conservative territory.
During the 2026 local elections, Reform took control of Suffolk County Council and Essex County Council, while making substantial advances elsewhere in rural and semi-rural England. The party also took control of Newcastle-under-Lyme and Havering.
This matters because Reform’s growth is occurring across different parts of the political map.
In some communities it has challenged Labour.
In others it has taken votes from the Conservatives.
That makes the party’s rise particularly significant for both established parties.
For Labour, the concern is especially visible in former industrial and working-class communities where the party once enjoyed a strong electoral connection.
For the Conservatives, the challenge is evident in rural and suburban areas where Reform has increasingly competed for voters who previously supported the Conservatives.
North East Lincolnshire provides another example
Another example of Reform’s expansion came in North East Lincolnshire.
During the May local elections, Reform became the largest party on the council after winning 13 seats, alongside the re-election of a Reform councillor who had previously defected from the Conservatives.
The final political balance was 14 Reform councillors, 11 Labour, 10 Conservatives, four independents and three Liberal Democrats. Reform won 14 of the 15 wards contested, with the Liberal Democrats retaining East Marsh.
The result did not give Reform an overall majority, but it demonstrated how rapidly the party could expand its representation in a local authority.
Such results have helped create the image of a nationwide turquoise advance.
However, the pattern is not uniform.
There are councils and wards where Reform has performed poorly or where other parties have retained strong support.
That variation is important when assessing the significance of the broader trend.
What does it mean for Keir Starmer?
The political implications for Starmer are mainly connected to Labour’s loss of support in areas that the party needs to maintain a broad electoral coalition.
The BBC’s reporting from South Elmsall showed how some former Labour voters now associate the Prime Minister directly with their dissatisfaction. Former Labour supporters interviewed in the area criticised the Government over issues including immigration and household finances.
That does not mean every Reform voter has rejected Labour for the same reason.
Nor does it mean that local election results establish how voters will behave at the next general election.
But the results provide Labour with evidence that some traditional supporters are willing to consider alternatives.
For a governing party, that creates an important political challenge.
The fragmentation of British politics
The rise of Reform is part of a broader fragmentation of the British political system.
The traditional contest between Labour and the Conservatives no longer explains every major electoral battle.
In different parts of the country, Labour can face Reform, the Conservatives can face Reform, and the Liberal Democrats and Greens can also become serious competitors.
This fragmentation was already visible at the 2024 general election, when Labour won a large parliamentary majority despite receiving only a minority of the national vote.
Local elections can make the fragmentation even more obvious because different voting patterns emerge in different regions.
The Independent described the changing landscape as a breakdown of the traditional Labour-Conservative contest, with Reform becoming a significant challenger in many areas.
The result is a political environment in which national party labels remain important but local circumstances can produce very different outcomes.
Reform’s own interpretation
Reform has embraced the “turquoise tidal wave” description.
A party publication following the May elections described the results as a major political realignment, pointing to gains in places including Wigan, Hartlepool, Havering and Newcastle-under-Lyme.
Reform figures have argued that the results demonstrate dissatisfaction with both Labour and the Conservatives.
Nigel Farage has also highlighted the party’s large increase in local-government representation as evidence that Reform is developing from a relatively small political organisation into a significant force at council level.
However, Reform’s own descriptions are political interpretations.
The measurable facts are the number of seats won, councils controlled and votes received.
Whether those results amount to a permanent realignment is a question that can only be answered over a longer period and through subsequent elections.
Not every result points in the same direction
It is also important not to portray Reform’s performance as uniformly dominant.
The party’s support varies significantly between regions and constituencies.
The BBC’s analysis of South Elmsall found a particularly strong Reform advance in the former mining communities of Wakefield, but local politics elsewhere can look very different.
The North East Lincolnshire results likewise show that Reform can win large numbers of seats without necessarily gaining an outright majority.
Other parties continue to win council seats and retain important areas of support.
This means the phrase “tidal wave” describes the scale and visibility of Reform’s expansion rather than suggesting that every part of Britain has moved in the same political direction.
Why Labour’s traditional coalition matters
Labour’s electoral coalition has historically brought together voters in major cities, working-class communities, public-sector workers, younger voters and a variety of other groups.
Reform’s rise presents a challenge particularly where Labour has traditionally relied on strong working-class support.
The Wakefield experience illustrates this.
Former Labour voters interviewed by the BBC cited immigration, economic pressures and dissatisfaction with the Prime Minister among their reasons for switching or considering switching allegiance.
For Labour, rebuilding support in such areas may require addressing a wide range of concerns rather than focusing on a single issue.
At the same time, the party retains substantial support in other parts of the country.
The Conservatives face their own challenge
The Conservative Party cannot simply assume that Reform’s gains from Labour automatically benefit the Conservatives.
The 2026 local results showed Reform making advances in traditional Conservative territory as well.
The party’s gains in Suffolk, Essex and other rural areas demonstrate that its appeal extends beyond former Labour strongholds.
This creates a difficult competitive environment for the Conservatives.
Instead of a straightforward Labour-Conservative contest, voters increasingly have multiple alternatives.
The consequences of that fragmentation could become especially important in closely contested parliamentary constituencies.
What comes next?
The most important question is whether Reform can maintain its local-government support over time.
Winning council seats provides the party with elected representatives, administrative responsibilities and a much larger political infrastructure.
It also creates new challenges.
Reform councillors must now demonstrate how they govern councils, manage budgets and deliver local services.
That provides voters with a different basis on which to assess the party.
At the same time, Labour and the Conservatives have opportunities to respond to the changes revealed by the local elections.
The next elections will provide further evidence about whether voters continue to support Reform or whether some of its gains prove temporary.
A changed political landscape
The latest Reform advance represents a substantial development in British local politics.
In Wakefield, a long-standing Labour-controlled council has been transformed, with Reform holding 56 of 63 seats. In North East Lincolnshire, Reform became the largest party. Across England, the party secured more than 1,400 council seats during the May elections.
These are measurable changes rather than predictions.
For Starmer, the results highlight the challenge of retaining support among voters who have historically backed Labour but are now considering alternatives.
For Reform, they provide a substantial expansion of elected representation and an opportunity to demonstrate how the party operates in local government.
The phrase “turquoise tidal wave” may remain a matter of political interpretation, but the underlying electoral change is clear: Reform UK has become a significant force in local government, and the traditional Labour-Conservative political map has become considerably more fragmented.
How permanent that transformation will be is something future elections will determine.
