Farage is likely to be celebrating a historic round of wins on Friday (Image: Getty)
Reform UK is on course for a landmark haul of seats in the 2026 local elections, with party chairman David Bull telling the BBC the party’s ascent had been “meteoric.”
Bull said voters on the doorstep were declaring “two party politics are dead” and that both Labour and the Conservatives were “in trouble.”
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He told the BBC that anything between 800 and 900 English seats would constitute a “great night,” with 1,000 representing “a measure of success.”
He insisted the vote — local in name only — should be read as “a referendum on the Labour Party.”
At the time of writing Sky News reported 11 seats for Reform, against 11 losses for Labour including in former bastions such as Chorley, and Runcorn and Helsby indicating the northern Red Wall was indeed falling to Nigel Farage‘s party.
The losses are already mounting — a Labour insider conceded to the BBC that Tameside, a council the party has controlled without interruption since 1979, had fallen.
A Reform source declared to the Sun on Sunday: “The Red Wall is crumbling and turning Reform tonight.”
How are the Conservatives faring in the 2026 local elections?
On the Conservative benches, shadow transport secretary Richard Holden conceded “significant losses” were inevitable, without being drawn on specific numbers.
He struck a more optimistic note on Badenoch’s personal ratings, saying she was registering “positive” feedback from voters.
What are the Greens and Lib Dems saying about the results?
Green Party deputy leader Rachel Millward said the Greens represented “an alternative that’s hope based” for voters feeling “such dissatisfaction and anger with the status quo,” adding that the party wanted to “make a difference to ordinary people’s lives.”
Liberal Democrat MP Sarah Olney predicted a “really good set of results” for her party, arguing that voters were “getting really frustrated with the traditional two parties” — but dismissed both Reform and the Greens as “populist” and “quite extremist.”
Reform UK Hails ‘Meteoric’ Results as Voters ‘Switch’ from Labour to Nigel Farage’s Party
Reform UK has celebrated what it describes as a “meteoric” rise in electoral support, pointing to a series of strong performances in local elections and council by-elections as evidence that voters who once supported Labour are increasingly turning towards Nigel Farage’s party.
The results have intensified the debate about the changing political landscape in Britain. For decades, many communities across northern England, the Midlands and other traditionally Labour areas were regarded as reliable territory for the party. However, Reform UK has increasingly made these areas a central part of its political strategy, seeking to attract voters who have become dissatisfied with the established parties.
The May 2026 local elections provided the clearest evidence yet of Reform’s rapid expansion. The party won more than 1,400 council seats and took control of 14 councils, making significant advances in areas that had previously been dominated by Labour and the Conservatives. Reform UK said it secured 1,454 seats and around 3.6 million votes.
For Nigel Farage, the significance of the results went beyond the number of councillors elected. He argued that the party had broken through in traditional Labour heartlands and that many former Labour voters had switched directly to Reform.
In a statement published after the elections, Farage highlighted gains across the North East, North West, Yorkshire and the West Midlands. He argued that the results represented a deeper political realignment rather than simply a temporary protest against an unpopular government.
That interpretation, however, remains contested.
Independent polling provides a more complicated picture of where Labour’s former supporters went. A YouGov analysis of the 2026 local elections found that only 46% of people who had voted Labour in the 2024 general election and then participated in the local elections continued to vote Labour. But the largest share of those who switched moved towards the Green Party rather than Reform UK. According to YouGov, 22% switched to the Greens, 16% to the Liberal Democrats and 6% to Reform UK.
The figures nevertheless demonstrate the scale of movement within Labour’s former electoral coalition. Reform was not the only party benefiting from Labour’s losses, but it was an important destination for some voters, particularly in areas where concerns about immigration, taxation, public services and national government performance have become politically significant.
Reform’s performance was particularly notable because the party had previously been associated primarily with former Conservative voters and supporters of Brexit. Its success in former Labour territory suggests that its electoral appeal cannot be understood solely through the traditional left-right divide.
The party has increasingly attempted to present itself as an alternative for working-class voters who feel that established political parties no longer represent their priorities. Farage has repeatedly emphasized issues including immigration, national sovereignty, taxation, public spending and public services.
This strategy has been particularly visible in communities often described as part of the “Red Wall” — constituencies in northern England and the Midlands that historically supported Labour but moved significantly towards the Conservatives in the 2019 general election.
Reform now hopes to build on that political realignment.
The party’s local election performance was followed by further council by-election victories during the summer. In June, Reform UK announced seven council by-election wins, including victories in St Helens, an area with a long Labour tradition. The party said it had won almost 40% of the vote in St Helens Town Centre and 33% in Haydock.
In September, Reform also reported victories in Eckington, Derbyshire, and Hutton & Locking in North Somerset. In Eckington, the party received 40% of the vote, while Labour fell from 60% at the previous contest to 28%. In Hutton & Locking, Reform secured 38%, while the Conservatives fell to 15%.
These individual contests are important because they show that Reform’s support has not been confined to one geographical region.
At the same time, the party has also demonstrated an ability to attract Conservative voters. A September by-election in East Markham, within Robert Jenrick’s Newark constituency, produced another striking result. Reform won almost half of the votes, while the Conservatives received about 28%.
This creates an unusual challenge for the traditional parties. Reform is attempting to appeal simultaneously to former Conservative voters concerned about immigration, taxation and the size of the state and former Labour voters who feel disconnected from the direction of their party.
The breadth of this potential coalition is one of the central questions surrounding Reform UK.
There are also important reasons for caution when interpreting the party’s recent success. Local elections are different from general elections. Turnout is generally lower, the issues discussed by voters can be more locally focused, and tactical voting can play a significant role.
YouGov found that nearly a quarter of voters in the 2026 local elections said the performance of the national government was an important factor in their decision. Reform voters were particularly likely to cite the national government’s performance as a reason for their vote, with 46% saying it was among the main factors influencing their choice.
That suggests some Reform support may have reflected dissatisfaction with the government rather than a permanent change in party allegiance.
The distinction matters because Nigel Farage is seeking to transform Reform UK from a protest-oriented political movement into a durable national party capable of competing across Britain.
The party has also been undergoing major organisational changes. In September, reports emerged that Reform had received two exceptionally large donations of £36 million each from cryptocurrency entrepreneurs Ben Delo and Christopher Harborne. The funding has been described as unprecedented in modern British party politics and has prompted debate about political donations and electoral spending. Reform plans to use some of its financial resources to expand its professional campaign operation, including employing hundreds of staff.
For Reform, the objective is clear: convert electoral momentum into a permanent political structure.
Yet the party faces competition not only from Labour and the Conservatives but also from the Greens, Liberal Democrats and newer political movements. The fragmentation of the British political system means that gaining votes does not automatically translate into winning large numbers of parliamentary seats.
Current polling also illustrates the fluidity of the political environment. A YouGov poll conducted on September 20 and 21, 2026, put Labour on 23%, with Reform UK and the Conservatives both on 21%. The poll also recorded the Greens on 14% and the Liberal Democrats on 12%.
These figures underline an important point: Reform’s recent electoral gains are significant, but they exist within a highly competitive and rapidly changing political environment.
For Labour, the challenge is particularly serious in communities where the party once enjoyed a deep organisational and cultural connection with voters. Losing support in these areas could force Labour to reconsider how it communicates on immigration, taxation, public services, economic policy and the concerns of working-class communities.
For Reform UK, meanwhile, the challenge is turning dissatisfaction into sustained support.
Farage has repeatedly argued that voters who have switched from Labour will not automatically return. His argument is that political loyalty has weakened and that voters are now prepared to move between parties according to their assessment of national issues and the performance of government.
Whether that represents a permanent realignment remains an open question.
What is clear is that Reform UK has changed the competitive environment of British politics. Its advances in Labour areas, combined with its ability to attract Conservative voters, have disrupted assumptions about where different parties can expect to find support.
The political map is becoming more fragmented, and traditional party loyalties appear less secure than they once were.
The next stage will therefore be crucial for Reform. Winning council seats and by-elections demonstrates the ability to attract votes, but building a long-term national coalition requires more than electoral momentum. It requires candidates, local organisations, policy credibility and the ability to maintain support when voters are choosing a government rather than expressing dissatisfaction with one.
For Nigel Farage and Reform UK, the recent results provide substantial evidence of political growth. For Labour and the Conservatives, they represent a warning that voters in formerly dependable constituencies are willing to consider alternatives.
But the available evidence does not show a simple one-way movement from Labour to Reform. Some former Labour voters have moved to Reform, while others have moved to the Greens, Liberal Democrats and other parties. The electorate is becoming more fluid rather than simply shifting from one established bloc to another.
That may ultimately be the most important feature of Britain’s changing political landscape.
Reform UK’s “meteoric” rise is part of a broader transformation in which voters appear increasingly willing to reconsider traditional loyalties. The party has successfully inserted itself into contests that once seemed primarily to involve Labour and the Conservatives.
Whether those voters remain with Reform over the long term will depend on what the party does with its growing influence — and on how effectively its competitors respond to the political concerns that have driven voters to reconsider their choices.