Nigel Farage has been a powerful force on the Right of politics (Image: Victoria Jones/Shutterstock)

I first met Kemi Badenoch in Manchester. It was 10pm at a drinks party, the night before her big conference speech last year. Although the room was dark I saw her expression change when I told her about my previous political trip to the city – Labour’s 2006 conference. It was a crazy four days for me writing the official blog, and more. I was even on stage with Tony Blair when he gave his final speech as leader. Back then I supported Blair and today I’m a Conservative donor – that’s an obvious move to me. The world has changed but we still need common sense and strong leadership.

I wasn’t always Kemi’s biggest fan. But when the Tory leadership race came down to her and Robert Jenrick, I was willing her over the line. When she spoke so honestly about our problems, I put my money where my mouth was and wrote a cheque. So when I say my money is on Kemi to see off Nigel Farage I really mean it.

I do have a lot of respect for what Reform UK has achieved. Richard Tice is an under-appreciated force in politics. What he and Farage have done so quickly is unique in British history. Twelve months ago they led the polls by a staggering margin, ahead of the Tories by between eight and 17 points!

No wonder they got cocky. They talked about the death of the Conservative Party. They even started calling Robert Jenrick the Shadow Chancellor. But as a financial markets trader and fund manager, I know that people getting too sure of themselves is a problem. And things can change bloody quickly.

Kemi Badenoch has steadied the Tory ship and voters see she does her homework, writes Andy Preston (Image: Stefan Rousseau/Press Association)

Now YouGov, More in Common and Find Out Now all have the Conservatives ahead of Reform. While two of those leads are only by a point it’s still a huge turnaround. And although the polls are close, if you ask people to choose between Kemi and Nigel as PM it’s a different story. In that poll, Kemi flattens him by 43-15. Even one in five people who voted Reform in 2024 prefer her.

Reform are still in the race and they’ve got a wad of cash to throw at the problem. It can buy them a lot of leaflets and Facebook ads. But it’s harder to buy back the feeling that you’re the next big thing. Their rapid ascent was driven by the excitement of something new. Much of that has worn off. If the polls keep sliding, many who got swept up in the excitement will drift away. That’s how a bad run in the polls can turn into a death spiral.

When the Tories under Kemi slumped to just 16% in the polls, a handful jumped ship for Reform, but the party held together. It’s Kemi’s ability to speak candidly that her party and the public loves. Of course Farage is a master of that too, but Kemi also has an excellent eye for detail. Voters can see that she stays up and does her homework – while others are in the pub.

Take Labour’s so-called jobs tax. That stupid move by Rachel Reeves and Keir Starmer made it more expensive to hire people just when jobs were becoming scarce – it did huge harm, especially to our youngsters who need jobs. So she’s pledged to halve the tax employers pay for workers aged 21 to 24. That could make all the difference to a small business wondering whether they can hire someone new or even keep people on.

Kemi understands that if we want more money for the NHS and defence, then we need business to grow. That means cutting the costs that hinder it. Tony Blair got this too and his very first tax intervention was to reduce the taxes companies pay.

Blair won three elections because he knew how to get a hearing from people who’d never voted Labour. He’d go to places like Hartlepool and Middlesbrough and talk about the things they cared about. I am convinced Kemi will more than match this. If the Tories aren’t ahead of Reform in all the main polls in May, I’ll come back to this column, admit I got it wrong and donate £250 to Reform. But my money is staying on Kemi to win this fight.

Nigel Farage and Richard Tice Got Cocky – There’s Only One Way This Will End

Nigel Farage and Richard Tice are facing a growing political challenge as Reform UK continues to attract attention and position itself as a serious contender in British politics. Their confidence has become increasingly visible, but political success can quickly turn into a liability when ambition gets ahead of reality.

Reform UK has built much of its popularity by presenting itself as an alternative to the Conservatives and Labour. Its message on immigration, taxation, Brexit and national sovereignty has resonated with voters who believe that traditional politicians have failed to address their concerns.

Farage has become the party’s most recognisable figure, while Richard Tice has played an important role in developing its political and organisational ambitions. Together, they have attempted to transform Reform UK from a protest movement into a party capable of challenging for power.

However, their growing confidence raises an important question: can Reform UK turn public dissatisfaction into a credible governing programme?

The party’s strongest political weapon remains immigration. Farage has repeatedly criticised the government’s handling of small boat crossings and argued that Britain needs a much tougher border policy. Tice has also attacked the costs associated with asylum accommodation and government spending.

These arguments have attracted support from voters concerned about pressure on housing, public services and local communities. Reform UK believes that established political parties have ignored these frustrations for too long.

Nevertheless, promising tougher immigration controls is considerably easier than implementing them. Any government would have to deal with complicated legal arrangements, international agreements, administrative challenges and the practical difficulties of removing people who have no legal right to remain in Britain.

Reform UK would therefore need to explain how its proposals could work in practice, rather than relying solely on strong political language.

The economy presents another major test. Farage and Tice have criticised high taxation, government spending and what they describe as Britain’s economic decline. Their promises to reduce the tax burden and encourage business investment have attracted attention among entrepreneurs and workers frustrated with rising costs.

However, substantial tax reductions would require detailed financial plans. The party would need to demonstrate how it could fund essential public services while reducing government revenue.

The National Health Service is a particularly important issue. Millions of people continue to experience difficulties accessing healthcare, while hospitals face pressure from waiting lists and staffing shortages. Reform UK would have to show how its economic programme could deliver sustainable improvements to the NHS.

There is also the question of political unity. Farage and Tice have built their influence around a strong leadership structure, but rapid political expansion can create disagreements over policies, candidate selection and internal organisation.

As Reform UK attracts more supporters and potential parliamentary candidates, maintaining discipline could become increasingly difficult. Internal disputes would provide opponents with opportunities to question whether the party is ready for government.

The Conservatives are also unlikely to surrender their position without a fight. Having lost support to Reform UK, they face considerable pressure to reconnect with voters who previously regarded them as the natural alternative to Labour.

This creates a complicated political situation. Reform UK wants to replace the Conservatives as the dominant force on the political right, while the Conservatives must convince voters that they remain a credible party of government.

Labour could benefit from this competition if opposition parties divide the anti-government vote. Even a significant increase in Reform UK’s popularity does not automatically translate into parliamentary power, particularly under Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system.

This is an important reality that Farage and Tice cannot afford to ignore. Winning public attention and gaining votes nationally are not the same as securing enough parliamentary seats to form a government.

The party must also demonstrate that it can attract support beyond its strongest constituencies. Britain is politically diverse, and voters in Scotland, Wales, London and traditional Labour communities may have very different priorities.

A successful national party needs more than a popular leader and a powerful campaign message. It requires credible candidates, detailed policies and the ability to persuade people who do not necessarily agree with its existing supporters.

Ultimately, Nigel Farage and Richard Tice have every reason to be confident about Reform UK’s growing political influence. Their party has succeeded in forcing immigration, taxation and national sovereignty back into the centre of political debate.

But confidence alone will not guarantee success.

If Reform UK becomes too comfortable with its popularity, ignores internal disagreements or fails to provide realistic answers to Britain’s biggest problems, its momentum could eventually disappear. Voters may forgive a protest party for lacking experience, but they will demand much more from a party asking for the responsibility of governing the country.

The coming political battles will therefore be decisive. Farage and Tice must prove that Reform UK is more than a vehicle for public anger and political protest.

There is only one way this ends if the party fails to make that transition: voters will eventually turn away in search of a more credible alternative.

For now, Reform UK has the attention of the country. The real challenge is proving that it deserves the country’s trust.