Alan Milburn is looking into the youth unemployment crisis (Image: Getty)
One in six young people are on course to be not in education, employment or training by 2031, as the youth unemployment crisis grows. It would bring the total number of so-called NEETS up to 1.26 million, new analysis shows. Liberal Democrats called for an increase in work experience opportunities, with every youngster offered a guaranteed 100 hours in a workplace to prepare them for adult life.
It comes as former Labour Cabinet Minister Alan Milburn prepared to publish the findings of his inquiry into NEETS. There are currently 981,000 people aged 16 to 24 who are doing nothing. A Liberal Democrat study warned the wasted potential already costs the country £125 billion a year. But it forecast an additional 280,000 young people would be affected over the next five years, adding around £36 billion annually to the bill.
The party is also calling for a careers coach for every young person and an evolution of A-Levels into a baccalaureate-style system making it easier for 16-year-olds to choose vocational or technical qualifications instead of traditional academic subjects.
Education Spokesperson Munira Wilson MP has said the warning signs are there “long before a young person leaves school”, but too often nobody steps in until years afterwards where they have been “left in limbo, not earning or learning”.
Ed Davey, Leader of the Liberal Democrats, said: “Every teacher knows a child that started secondary school bright and eager, but over the years drifted to the back of the class. Too often, nobody notices, and they slip through the cracks to become one of the almost one million young people not in education or training.
“As a young carer for my mum, and now as a dad myself, I know how much it matters when someone truly notices what a young person is going through and gives them the support they need.
“Unless we act now, hundreds of thousands more young people will slip through the cracks, stuck without the education, training or guidance to succeed. Ministers must seize this moment to change the system and give every young people the opportunities they deserve.”
Some young people could see a reduction in benefits, under a radical overhaul of the welfare system proposed by Mr Milburn.
His year-long review, to be published on Tuesday, is set to recommend moving under-25s off the main sickness and disability benefits.
He said that his plans would not be “pain-free” and would affect both existing and new claimants.
Downing Street yesterday declined to rule out welfare reforms that would impact people receiving universal credit and the personal independence payment.
No10 said the UK cannot afford to “continue paying the cost of failure” when young people fall out of work, education or training.
Just under half (45.3%) of Neets have been classed as disabled in the year to March – a proportion which has more than doubled in just over a decade.
Disability charity Sense said it is “deeply concerned that, if these proposals are taken forward without proper funding for specialist employment support alongside welfare changes, some young disabled people could lose out”.
Labour Told to ‘Act Now’ as More Young People Risk Spending Their Entire Lives on Benefits
The United Kingdom is facing a growing crisis involving young people who are increasingly disconnected from education, employment and professional training. New analysis published on 13 November 2026 has warned that as many as 1.26 million young people aged between 16 and 24 could be not in education, employment or training by 2031 unless urgent action is taken. This would represent approximately one in every six young people in this age group, raising serious concerns about the future of Britain’s workforce, the sustainability of the welfare system and the economic opportunities available to the next generation. The warning has prompted renewed calls for Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s Labour Government to introduce significant reforms before more young people become trapped in long-term unemployment and financial dependence on state benefits.
The issue has attracted particular attention following the work of former Labour Cabinet minister Alan Milburn, who has been examining the reasons behind the growing number of young people who are neither studying nor working. His investigation has highlighted serious weaknesses in Britain’s education, employment, healthcare and welfare systems. According to the available figures, approximately 981,000 young people aged 16 to 24 were classified as NEET in 2026. NEET stands for Not in Education, Employment or Training and describes individuals who are not participating in formal education, employment or recognised training programmes. This figure represents a substantial social and economic challenge for the country, particularly because many of those affected are experiencing health problems, disabilities, mental health difficulties or a lack of suitable employment opportunities.
The latest projections suggest that the situation could deteriorate considerably over the next five years. Analysis published by the Liberal Democrats indicates that the number of young people in this category could increase by approximately 280,000, reaching 1.26 million by 2031. The party has warned that the consequences could be extremely expensive for the British economy, with the existing problem estimated to cost approximately £125 billion annually. A further deterioration could add around £36 billion a year to the economic burden. These estimates reflect not only the direct cost of welfare payments but also lost productivity, reduced tax revenues, weaker economic participation and the long-term consequences of young people being unable to develop their skills and careers.
One of the most concerning findings is that the problem is increasingly connected to disability and poor health. Government statistics indicate that 45.3 per cent of young people classified as NEET were considered disabled in the year to March 2026. This represents a substantial increase compared with approximately 21 per cent in 2014. Mental health conditions, anxiety, depression, autism and other neurodevelopmental conditions are among the issues that can make entering the workplace particularly difficult. For some young people, the challenge is not a lack of willingness to work but the absence of appropriate support, accessible workplaces and employers who understand their individual needs.
Alan Milburn has argued that the existing system often responds to young people’s problems too late. Rather than identifying difficulties early and providing appropriate assistance, public institutions frequently allow young people to become disconnected from education and employment before offering meaningful intervention. His review suggests that the education system, healthcare services and welfare arrangements must work together more effectively. Schools should identify pupils who are at risk of disengagement, healthcare providers should ensure that young people receive appropriate treatment, and employment services should provide practical assistance before individuals become dependent on long-term benefits.
Another important concern involves the balance between welfare spending and employment support. According to Milburn’s interim review, the Government spent approximately £8.1 billion annually on benefits directly for young people, while the Department for Work and Pensions spent less than £200 million on employment support programmes for young people in 2024/25, excluding the wider share of general Jobcentre activity. His analysis suggested that approximately £25 was being spent on welfare benefits for young people for every £1 spent on dedicated employment support. This imbalance has raised questions about whether public money is being used effectively to help young people build independent and productive lives.
The Liberal Democrats have called on the Labour Government to introduce a guaranteed 100 hours of work experience for every young person. They believe that practical workplace experience could help school leavers understand the demands of employment, develop professional confidence and acquire skills that cannot always be learned in a classroom. The party has also proposed providing every young person with access to a dedicated careers adviser who could offer guidance on university education, apprenticeships, vocational qualifications and employment opportunities. These measures are intended to prevent young people from leaving education without a clear understanding of their future options.
Education reform is another important part of the debate. Many young people struggle because traditional academic pathways do not suit their abilities, interests or circumstances. A system that places excessive emphasis on academic qualifications may leave some pupils feeling that they have failed when they do not achieve the expected examination results. The Liberal Democrats have therefore proposed developing a broader educational framework that would give students greater flexibility to choose academic, technical and vocational qualifications. Such an approach could help more young people discover their strengths and develop practical skills that employers actually need.
However, the Labour Government is also considering more significant changes to the welfare system. Milburn’s review is expected to recommend replacing certain sickness and disability benefit arrangements for some people under the age of 25 with a new youth allowance and more targeted employment and healthcare support. The proposals could affect access to the health-related element of Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment for some younger claimants. Some individuals could initially receive less financial assistance under the proposed arrangements. Milburn has acknowledged that the changes would not be painless, although he argues that young people who have some capacity to work should receive more practical help to enter employment rather than remaining disconnected from the labour market.
These proposals have generated considerable debate within the Labour Party and among disability organisations. Supporters argue that the welfare system must encourage participation and ensure that young people are not unnecessarily excluded from employment. They believe that offering training, mental health treatment, career guidance and specialist workplace support could improve long-term opportunities. However, critics warn that reducing financial assistance without providing adequate alternatives could make life considerably harder for young disabled people and those with serious health conditions.
Disability charity Sense has expressed concern that some young people could lose essential support if welfare reforms are introduced without sufficient investment in specialist employment services. Other organisations have emphasised that financial security and employment opportunities should not be treated as competing objectives. Young people with disabilities may need both adequate income support and personalised assistance to overcome the barriers preventing them from working. Cutting benefits alone cannot create jobs, improve mental health or guarantee that employers will provide suitable working environments.
The Government has therefore been urged to ensure that any reforms are introduced as part of a comprehensive strategy rather than simply focusing on reducing welfare expenditure. Employment opportunities must exist before young people can realistically be expected to enter the labour market. Employers also need incentives to recruit inexperienced workers, provide training and accommodate people with disabilities. Investment in apprenticeships, technical education, mental health services and local employment programmes will be essential if the country is to address the underlying causes of youth inactivity.
For Andy Burnham’s Government, the challenge is particularly important because the consequences extend far beyond the welfare budget. Young people who remain outside education and employment for several years may lose confidence, professional skills and valuable opportunities to develop independent lives. Long periods of inactivity can also increase social isolation and place additional pressure on families, healthcare services and local communities. If the situation is not addressed early, the country could face a generation with fewer career opportunities and a greater dependence on public financial support.
Ultimately, the warning that one in six young people could be outside education, employment or training by 2031 should encourage serious national discussion about the future of Britain’s workforce and welfare system. Alan Milburn’s review has highlighted the need for earlier intervention, stronger employment support and closer cooperation between schools, healthcare services, employers and government departments. The Liberal Democrats have proposed guaranteed work experience and individual careers guidance, while the Labour Government is considering changes to benefits alongside greater investment in employment opportunities. However, successful reform must protect young people who genuinely cannot work because of serious disabilities or lifelong health conditions. Britain’s objective should not simply be to reduce the number of people claiming benefits, but to ensure that every young person has a realistic opportunity to learn, develop skills, find suitable employment and build a secure future. The decisions taken now could have lasting consequences for an entire generation, making urgent and carefully designed action essential.