Labour’s opinion poll ratings began to rise as soon as it was clear Andy Burnham would become prime minister and have continued to improve throughout his first 100 days in office.
In the week ending June 21, one day before Sir Keir Starmer announced his resignation as PM, Labour averaged 19% in nationwide polls of how people would vote at the next general election – the same figure as the Conservatives.
There was almost a month between Sir Keir resigning on June 22 and Mr Burnham becoming prime minister on July 20, but the polls started to shift even before the former Greater Manchester mayor walked through the door of 10 Downing Street.
In the week ending July 19, one day before the start of Mr Burnham’s premiership, Labour now averaged 21%, up two points from a month earlier, while Reform were on 24%, down three points.
This trend continued during the first weeks of the new prime minister’s time in office.
Labour’s poll average climbed to 23% in the week ending July 26, then reached 26% in the week to August 2, overtaking Reform on 24%.
This was the first time the party had been ahead of Reform – based on weekly averages – since March 2025.
During the rest of August and much of September, Labour’s average in polls of voting intention remained in the mid-20s, just ahead of Reform and well above all other parties.
But since the end of September and the party conference season, some polls have placed Labour in the high 20s or even the low 30s, pushing the party’s average up even further.
The latest averages, for the week ending October 25, show Labour on 29%: the party’s highest such rating since the end of 2024.
Reform and the Conservatives are tied on 22%, the Greens are on 10% and the Liberal Democrats are on 9%.
It means that ahead of Mr Burnham’s 100th day as prime minister on October 27, Labour’s weekly poll average is now 10 percentage points higher than the day before Sir Keir Starmer resigned.
The story of Mr Burnham’s first 100 days in Downing Street is one of a clear and sustained improvement in Labour’s poll ratings compared with the party’s performance at the end of Sir Keir’s premiership.
There has also been an equally clear fall in Reform’s poll averages, from 27% to 22%.
Other shifts have been under way, however.
The Conservatives polled around 20% for much of August and September, but have seen a small rise in support since the party conference season and are level-pegging with Reform in the latest weekly figures.
Some individual polls published recently have placed the Tories in second place, ahead of Reform and behind Labour.
There has also been a fall since the summer in the poll averages for both the Greens and the Liberal Democrats.
The Greens were on 13% in the week before Mr Burnham became prime minister and are on 10% in the latest figures, while the Lib Dems have slipped from 12% to 9%.
The UK’s leading polling companies are agreed that the polls have moved since the start of Mr Burnham’s premiership.
Keiran Pedley, director of politics at Ipsos, said Labour under Mr Burnham is “resurgent, consolidating voters on the left behind them,” while on the right the “tectonic plates have been shifting”.
Ipsos’ latest poll of voting intention, carried out between October 15 and 22, puts Labour on 32%, the Tories on 24% and Reform on 20% – figures that “confirm a pattern we have been seeing in the underlying data for some time,” Mr Pedley said.
Labour has been on a “clear upward trajectory since June” with Reform “declining since their peak earlier in the year”, according to PJ Stock of the polling firm Survation, while the pollsters YouGov describe the trend in recent months as “a small recovery for both the Conservatives and Labour”.
Mr Burnham “remains the only party leader with a positive net approval rating and holds a commanding lead over both Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage on who would make the better prime minister,” according to the latest findings published by the firm Opinium.
Polls are snapshots, not forecasts or predictions, and as such reflect the mood of the public at the current time – not how people may feel or vote in the future.
“The Government faces a challenging Budget this coming week and the lesson of the last year is that British politics is volatile,” Mr Pedley of Ipsos added.
“The picture today is very different to six months ago and it could be different again in six months’ time too.”
– Weekly polling averages are compiled by the Press Association from data published by BMG, Deltapoll, Find Out Now, Freshwater, Ipsos, JL Partners, More in Common, Opinium, Survation and YouGov
Labour Rises From 19% to 29%
The clearest change has been Labour’s recovery in voting intention.
According to Press Association analysis of publicly available national polling, Labour averaged 19% in the week ending June 21, the day before Starmer announced his resignation.
Reform UK stood at 27%, giving Farage’s party an eight-point lead. The Conservatives were also on 19%, while the Green Party recorded 14% and the Liberal Democrats 12%.
By the week ending July 19, immediately before Burnham entered Downing Street, Labour had climbed to 21%. Reform had fallen to 24%.
The movement continued after Burnham became prime minister on July 20. Labour reached 23% in the week ending July 26, then rose to 26% in the week ending August 2, overtaking Reform in the weekly averages for the first time since March 2025.
By the week ending October 25, Labour’s average had reached 29%, its highest level since the end of 2024.
That represents a ten-point increase from the week before Starmer resigned. Over the same period, Reform’s average fell from 27% to 22%. <Cite refs={[“turn173213search0″,”turn173213search1”]} />
The figures suggest that Labour has regained some of the support it lost under its previous leadership. However, polling cannot establish that Burnham’s appointment alone caused the entire change. Economic developments, party controversies, individual policy announcements and wider political events can all influence voting intentions.
How the Parties Compare Now
The latest weekly averages available ahead of Burnham’s 100-day milestone show a different political landscape from the one that existed in June.
<text color=”secondary” size=”sm”>National voting-intention averages for the week ending October 25, 2026. These are polling averages, not election results.</text>
| Political party | June 21 average | October 25 average |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 19% | 29% |
| Reform UK | 27% | 22% |
| Conservatives | 19% | 22% |
| Greens | 14% | 10% |
| Liberal Democrats | 12% | 9% |
<Cite refs={[“turn173213search0″,”turn173213search1”]} />
Labour’s ten-point increase is the most notable movement in these figures. Reform has lost five points, while the Conservatives have recovered from around 19% to 22%.
The figures also show that the Conservatives have drawn level with Reform in the latest weekly averages. That represents a change from the summer, when Reform had a clearer lead over the other parties.
The Greens and Liberal Democrats have both slipped compared with their June averages.
These numbers are based on aggregated polls, so they should not be confused with the results of a single survey. Individual polls can produce different figures depending on their methodology, sample and fieldwork dates.
Ipsos Poll Places Labour on 32%
A separate Ipsos survey provides another indication of Labour’s improved position.
The poll, conducted between October 15 and 22, put Labour on 32%, the Conservatives on 24% and Reform UK on 20%.
That placed Labour eight points ahead of the Conservatives and twelve points ahead of Reform in that particular survey. The result was consistent with the broader trend identified by the weekly averages, although the precise figures differed. <Cite refs={[“turn173213search0″,”turn173213search4”]} />
For Labour, the improvement represents a significant change from the difficult period preceding Starmer’s resignation.
For Reform, the figures indicate that its earlier polling lead has narrowed. Farage’s party has also faced scrutiny over political donations and internal disputes, although polling alone cannot establish how much those developments have affected its support.
The Conservatives, meanwhile, have shown signs of recovery after spending much of the summer around the 20% mark.
The wider picture is therefore not simply one of Labour gaining support. It also involves changes on the right of British politics and a decline in support for some smaller parties.
Burnham’s Personal Popularity Tells a Different Story
Party voting intention is only one measure of public opinion. Another is whether people have a favourable or unfavourable view of the prime minister himself.
YouGov’s October political favourability survey found that 46% of Britons viewed Burnham favourably, while 42% viewed him unfavourably. That left him with a net favourability rating of plus four points.
His net rating had reached plus thirteen in August, indicating that the balance of public opinion about him had become less positive over the following two months.
The same survey found that 67% viewed Farage unfavourably, compared with 25% who viewed him favourably. Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch had a net favourability rating of minus fifteen. <Cite refs={[“turn173213search5”]} />
These findings demonstrate why voting intention and personal popularity should be considered separately.
A voter might support Labour because of its policies or because they prefer it to the alternatives without having a particularly positive opinion of Burnham. Conversely, a politician can receive favourable personal ratings without their party attracting the same level of support.
Burnham’s figures remain positive overall, but the rise in unfavourable views suggests that his early period in office has not been universally well received.
Has Burnham Won Over the Public?
A YouGov survey published on October 23 examined how the public felt Burnham had performed against their expectations.
The poll of 5,394 adults, conducted on October 22, found that 23% said he had met their positive expectations. Twelve per cent said they had expected him to do well but had been disappointed.
Another 23% said he had performed as poorly as they had anticipated, while 14% of those who had expected him to perform badly said he had done better than they expected. Other respondents were unsure or did not fit those categories. <Cite refs={[“turn173213search3”]} />
The findings suggest that Burnham’s stronger polling figures have not removed uncertainty about his performance.
His government has introduced measures intended to reduce household costs, including removing VAT from domestic electricity bills and plans to cap certain bus fares at £2. Other proposals concern subscription cancellations and public services.
However, some measures have yet to take effect, and the longer-term effects will take time to assess.
The government also faces difficult decisions over public spending, immigration, pensions and the future of the UK’s relationship with Europe. These issues may influence whether the current improvement in Labour’s polling is sustained.
Brexit Could Become a Major Test
One of the most contentious developments during Burnham’s first 100 days has been his decision to reopen discussion about Brexit.
Burnham has argued that leaving the EU damaged Britain’s economic prospects and reduced some forms of cooperation on migration. He has expressed support for closer ties with Europe, including the possibility of rejoining the EU during his lifetime.
However, he has also said that his government will not reverse its existing manifesto commitments during the current Parliament. Any future change would require further political decisions, and a return to EU membership is not an immediate government policy. <Cite refs={[“turn173213news9″,”turn173213search2”]} />
The issue creates a challenge for Labour because voters hold different views about Brexit. Some support closer relations with the EU to improve trade and economic cooperation, while others regard leaving the bloc as a decision that should not be reversed.
Farage and Reform UK have strongly opposed proposals they believe could weaken Brexit, particularly any return to freedom of movement.
The political consequences will depend on the specific proposals the government advances and how voters respond to them. The polling figures so far do not establish that one position on Brexit is responsible for Labour’s recovery.
The Budget Is the Next Major Test
Burnham’s first 100 days culminate in a crucial period for his government, with the first Budget under Chancellor John Healey scheduled for October 28.
The government faces pressure to address living costs while managing public finances and deciding how to fund its wider commitments. Pension reform and the proposed National Care Service are among the longer-term issues that could prove politically sensitive.
A strong polling position can give a government greater room to pursue its agenda, but it does not guarantee that difficult decisions will be popular.
If the Budget disappoints voters who expected rapid improvements in household finances, the government could face renewed criticism. Equally, measures that provide visible benefits may help reinforce the perception that the new administration is responding to everyday concerns.
The effects will not necessarily be visible immediately in national polls. Changes in public opinion can take time, and different polling organisations may record different movements.
What the First 100 Days Tell Us
Burnham’s first 100 days have coincided with a substantial recovery in Labour’s voting-intention figures.
The party has moved from 19% in the week before Starmer resigned to a weekly average of 29% by October 25. Reform has fallen from 27% to 22%, while the Conservatives have risen to 22%.
Ipsos has also recorded Labour on 32% in its October survey, ahead of both the Conservatives and Reform. Meanwhile, YouGov’s favourability figures show that Burnham retains a positive net rating, although it has declined from its August peak.
Together, the figures point to a markedly changed political picture since June. But they do not establish that Labour’s recovery is permanent, nor do they guarantee future election results.
The government still faces questions about public satisfaction, the cost of its policies and the divisions surrounding immigration and Brexit.
Burnham’s next challenge is to turn improved polling into sustained public confidence. Whether he succeeds will depend not only on how he communicates his plans, but also on whether people see tangible improvements in their daily lives.
For now, the polls provide a snapshot of a political landscape that has changed considerably during his first 100 days in office, while leaving the longer-term direction of British politics uncertain.