Data show Labour has extended its lead, sitting on 32 per cent, while the Tories have cemented their position in second on 24 per cent, up three points.

Reform sit third on 20 per cent, while the Lib Dems (nine per cent) have overtaken the Greens in fourth with just eight per cent, following a five-point drop.

Keiran Pedley, Director of Politics at Ipsos UK, said: “Whilst the headline figures do show a striking change, they confirm a pattern we have been seeing in the underlying data for some time.

“The Labour Party under Andy Burnham is resurgent, consolidating voters on the left behind them.

“On the right, the tectonic plates have been shifting recently and now this is reflected in the Conservatives – not Reform UK – being in a clear second place.”

Since September 2026, Kemi Badenoch has enjoyed the largest popularity swing, with 35 per cent now satisfied with the way she is leading the party – drawing her level with Andy Burnham.

Zack Polanski is facing the highest levels of dissatisfaction since he became leader in September 2025. Some 56 per cent are now displeased with his oversight, up six points.

The Greens’ leader controversially abstained from the “Zionism is racism” motion, which was ultimately passed. It defines Zionism as an “ethnonationalist political project” and states opposition to Zionism, the belief in Jewish self-determination and statehood, should not be equated with antisemitism.

Mr Polanski has since told the BBC he wants to amend the motion “at the first available opportunity” – in 2028.

Nigel Farage has suffered a similar decline in popularity, with 64 per cent now dissatisfied with his tenure. Two recent stings from ITV and Channel 4, which brought forward damaging allegations about the party, may have impacted his popularity.

Reform has denied any wrongdoing and reported ITV and its undercover journalists to the police, with the party’s spokesman for home affairs, Zia Yusuf, confirming: “Some of the crimes carry up to 10 years in prison. They forged a passport. They directly interfered in elections and almost certainly altered the results, being paid to ‘canvass’ for Reform in crucial wards we lost by a few dozen votes.”

Mr Pedley warned to be “mindful against overreacting to one poll,” describing British politics as “volatile” and noting Mr Healey’s upcoming Budget on Wednesday.

“The picture today is very different to six months ago and it could be different again in six months’ time too,” he added.

Mr Healey, the former Defence Secretary who quit his role earlier this year after a lack of funding in his department, looks set to announce billions in defence spending next week.

He will also invest in the National Wealth Fund and British Business Bank, two separate Government funds.

The investment would be generated by long-term borrowing, opening the door to criticism from political opponents. The Conservatives, for example, vowed to increase defence spending by cutting the ballooning benefits bill.

Other measures Mr Healey could introduce include new pension levies and a hike in the capital gains tax.

Labour Surges to Eight-Point Lead in Bombshell Poll as John Healey Prepares to Unveil New Tax Raids

Labour has recorded a significant rise in support in a new opinion poll, opening an eight-point lead over the Conservatives just days before Chancellor John Healey is expected to deliver his first Budget. The figures offer a boost to Prime Minister Andy Burnham, but the government faces a difficult challenge as voters wait to discover whether the forthcoming financial measures will ease the cost of living or place additional pressure on households and businesses.

The latest Ipsos survey, conducted between 15 and 22 October 2026, puts Labour on 32 per cent, up five points from September. The Conservatives have risen to 24 per cent, while Reform UK has fallen to 20 per cent. The Liberal Democrats stand at nine per cent and the Green Party at eight per cent. It is the largest Labour lead recorded by Ipsos since June 2025 and the first time in that period the Conservatives have taken second place in the poll. <Cite refs={[“turn959436search0″,”turn959436search3”]}/>

The results arrive at a politically sensitive moment. With the Budget approaching, the government must demonstrate that it can respond to economic pressures while maintaining control over public finances. For Labour, the challenge is to turn improved polling numbers into lasting public confidence.

Labour Enjoys a Significant Polling Boost

The latest figures suggest Labour has recovered some support after a difficult period marked by concerns about living standards, public services and the government’s economic direction.

Its rise to 32 per cent represents a five-point increase in a single month. The Conservatives have also improved, gaining three points to reach 24 per cent. Reform UK, meanwhile, has dropped three points to 20 per cent, while the Greens have fallen five points to eight per cent.

These changes indicate that the political picture remains fluid rather than settled. Labour’s improvement has coincided with a recovery in Conservative support, while parties that previously attracted voters dissatisfied with the established political alternatives have experienced declines in this particular survey.

Ipsos political research director Keiran Pedley cautioned against drawing sweeping conclusions from one set of results, pointing out that British politics has been volatile and could look different again within months. <Cite refs={[“turn959436search0″,”turn959436search3”]}/>

That warning is important. Opinion polls measure voting intentions at a particular moment; they do not establish how people will vote at the next general election. Campaigns, economic developments, leadership decisions and the government’s Budget could all influence public opinion.

Nevertheless, an eight-point lead gives Labour a more favourable headline position than it enjoyed in previous months. The question is whether the party can sustain that momentum when voters begin assessing the consequences of its financial decisions.

John Healey Faces a Difficult Budget

The Budget is expected to be one of the most consequential tests of the government’s economic strategy. Healey must balance demands for additional public spending with the need to maintain fiscal discipline, while households continue to face pressure from essential bills and other everyday expenses.

Reports ahead of the announcement suggest that the Chancellor is considering a combination of targeted cost-of-living assistance, measures to support businesses, housing investment and increased defence spending. Possible changes to financial-sector taxation have also attracted attention, although not every reported proposal is confirmed policy. <Cite refs={[“turn959436news9″,”turn959436news10”]}/>

The political sensitivity surrounding taxation is considerable. Families want reassurance that their incomes will stretch far enough to cover housing, food, energy and transport. Businesses want predictable rules and confidence that investment will not become more expensive. At the same time, public services require funding, and the government faces competing demands over where limited resources should be directed.

If the Budget introduces higher taxes on particular businesses or financial activities, ministers will need to explain why those measures are necessary and how the revenue will be used. Critics may argue that additional taxation could discourage investment or eventually affect consumers, while supporters may contend that those with greater financial resources should contribute more towards public priorities.

The eventual impact will depend on the precise measures announced, the businesses affected and whether the additional revenue translates into visible improvements.

Are More Tax Rises on the Way?

The phrase “tax raids” has become a prominent feature of political debate ahead of the Budget, but the final package must be judged on its actual provisions rather than speculation.

Among the possibilities reported before the announcement are changes affecting banks and other financial institutions, alongside decisions on public investment and defence. The government has also faced calls to reconsider how different sources of revenue contribute to public spending.

Healey has reportedly ruled out increasing Capital Gains Tax, while a possible increase in the bank-profit surcharge has been discussed. Such measures would have different consequences from raising Income Tax or National Insurance, which directly affect many workers and employees. <Cite refs={[“turn959436news10”]}/>

The distinction matters because not all tax increases affect households in the same way. A levy imposed on a particular sector may fall initially on companies, although its wider effects can depend on how firms respond. Changes to taxes on wages or consumption can affect individuals more directly.

The government will also need to explain whether any new revenue is intended to fund immediate assistance, long-term infrastructure or recurring public expenditure. Voters are likely to scrutinise whether the benefits justify the costs, particularly if the Budget does not provide substantial relief from rising household expenses.

For Labour, communication will be crucial. Ministers will have to make the case that their decisions are fair, economically sustainable and consistent with promises to improve living standards.

Conservatives See an Opportunity

Although Labour’s rise dominates the latest poll, the Conservatives have also recorded an improvement. Their support has increased to 24 per cent, placing them ahead of Reform UK in this Ipsos survey.

The result gives Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch an opportunity to argue that her party can attract voters who are dissatisfied with the government’s direction. However, an improvement in one poll does not establish that the Conservatives have resolved their broader electoral challenges.

The party will need to demonstrate how its economic proposals would differ from Labour’s and explain how it would fund its commitments. Questions surrounding taxation, public services, welfare spending and defence are likely to feature prominently in the debate.

Reform UK, meanwhile, remains on 20 per cent in the survey. Its fall may indicate that some voters who previously considered the party are reconsidering their options, but the poll alone cannot establish why individual respondents changed their intentions.

The figures therefore suggest a changing balance among the major parties rather than a definitive return to a stable two-party system.

Cost of Living Remains Central

Beyond Westminster’s political calculations, the most important question for many voters is whether their financial circumstances will improve.

The Ipsos findings indicate that the economy and the cost of living remain among the public’s leading concerns, alongside healthcare, asylum and immigration, and defence. Labour also performs comparatively well in the survey’s assessments of party policies on living costs and healthcare. <Cite refs={[“turn959436search0”]}/>

These issues create a difficult test for the government. Investment in infrastructure and public services may generate benefits over time, but families facing immediate bills may want assistance that can be felt much sooner.

Energy costs are a particular concern. Reports ahead of the Budget have suggested that ministers are examining ways to reduce pressure on household bills, including potential changes to standing charges and electricity pricing. Such proposals would need to be assessed against their costs, practical implementation and effects on different types of consumers. <Cite refs={[“turn959436news9″,”turn959436news10”]}/>

Housing affordability, wages and employment will also influence how voters judge the government’s performance. A stronger polling position could prove temporary if people feel that economic conditions are not improving in their daily lives.

A Political Boost, but No Guarantee

The latest poll provides Labour with welcome news ahead of a Budget that could shape the government’s political standing for months to come. Its 32 per cent share and eight-point lead over the Conservatives represent a substantial improvement in the Ipsos survey, while the Conservatives’ recovery and Reform UK’s decline suggest that support is shifting across the political landscape.

However, the findings also reveal the limits of a polling bounce. Even with Labour ahead, the government continues to face questions about public satisfaction, the economy and whether it deserves another term. The same survey found that 66 per cent were dissatisfied with how the government was running the country, despite a modest improvement in satisfaction compared with the previous month. <Cite refs={[“turn959436search0”]}/>

That contrast highlights the challenge facing Andy Burnham and his ministers. More people may currently intend to vote Labour, but that does not necessarily mean they are satisfied with every government decision.

The Budget will provide an important opportunity for the Chancellor to explain his priorities and set out how the government intends to fund them. Decisions on taxation, public services, defence and household support will be examined closely by voters, opposition parties and businesses.

For now, Labour can point to a stronger position in the latest Ipsos figures. Whether that lead survives the financial decisions announced by John Healey will depend on the details of the Budget and how the public experiences its consequences.

The political advantage is real within this poll, but it is not permanent. In a volatile political environment, the government’s next decisions may matter far more than a single set of encouraging numbers.