Andy Burnham’s “resurgent” Labour has secured a boost in the polls – as the Prime Minister prepares to mark his 100 days in office.
According to two surveys published this weekend, Mr Burnham’s party now has an eight-point lead over Tory and Reform rivals. Pollsters Ipsos said it was the largest lead it had recorded for Labour this Parliament.
It comes ahead of a crunch week for the government, with Mr Burnham set to mark 100 days in Downing Street on Tuesday – 24 hours before Chancellor John Healey delivers the Budget.
Ipsos found 32% said they will vote Labour at the next general election – a 5-point increase on last month – compared to 24% for Kemi Badenoch’s Tories. The survey also shows Nigel Farage’s embattled Reform trailing in third place on 20%.
Director of politics at Ipsos in the UK, Keiran Pedley, said: “Whilst the headline figures do show a striking change, they confirm a pattern we have been seeing in the underlying data for some time.
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“The Labour Party under Andy Burnham is resurgent, consolidating voters on the left behind them. On the right, the tectonic plates have been shifting recently and now this is reflected in the Conservatives – not Reform UK – being in a clear second place.”
But he added: “We should be mindful against overreacting to one poll.
“The Government faces a challenging budget this coming week and the lesson of the last year is the British politics is volatile. The picture today is very different to six months ago and it could be different again in six months’ time too.”
Meanwhile pollsters Opinium also found Labour had an eight point lead on 30% with Nigel Farage’s embattled Reform trailing in second place on 22% and the Tories on 20%.
It also found the Greens on 10% and the Liberal Democrats on 9%.
Mr Burnham has repeatedly ruled out the prospect of an early general election. But if Labour continues to improve its position in the polls it will reignite speculation over an early vote.
Asked by ITV Calendar in September whether the next election would be in 2029, Burnham said: “Well, yes, that’s when the next election will be.
“All of this speculation on an early election – I can knock that dead.
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“You know, people want me, new in office, to be getting on with the job of delivering on the things that we’ve discussed, rather than putting self-serving politics before that, which was what I would be doing if I call an election. I’m not going to do that.”
Andy Burnham’s Resurgent Labour Secures Poll Boost Over Reform and Tories Ahead of Crunch Week
A Dramatic Shift in Britain’s Political Landscape
The latest figures represent a notable change in the political landscape after months in which Labour struggled to maintain public support. The party’s improvement suggests that some voters who had become disillusioned may be reconsidering their position under Burnham’s leadership.
For Labour, the immediate challenge is to turn that improvement into lasting confidence. A rise in voting intention can provide political breathing space, but it does not automatically mean that voters are satisfied with the government’s performance.
Many households continue to face difficult decisions over their finances. Public services remain a major concern, while questions surrounding taxation, economic growth and immigration continue to influence political debate.
Burnham must therefore demonstrate that his government can respond to these concerns with practical policies rather than relying on favourable headlines.
The coming days could prove particularly important because the Budget will offer voters an opportunity to assess the government’s economic priorities.
If the measures announced are viewed as fair and credible, Labour could find it easier to maintain its improved position. If they create fresh concerns over taxes or spending, however, the political benefits of the recent polling increase could be short-lived.
The Budget Presents a Major Test
The first Budget under Burnham’s leadership is expected to attract intense scrutiny from voters, businesses, financial commentators and opposition parties.
Chancellor John Healey faces the difficult task of balancing public spending, economic growth and the government’s financial commitments.
For ordinary families, the most important questions concern the cost of living, wages, housing and the availability of public services.
People want to know whether the government can improve their financial circumstances without introducing measures that leave them worse off elsewhere.
Pensioners will be watching for decisions affecting retirement incomes and household bills. Working families will want clarity about taxes and support for childcare, while businesses will be looking for policies that provide stability and encourage investment.
The government must also consider the demands facing the NHS, local authorities and other public services.
These competing priorities make the Budget politically sensitive. Announcements that satisfy one group may disappoint another, and decisions about how to raise or allocate public money can have consequences far beyond Westminster.
Labour’s improved polling position gives Burnham an opportunity to explain his approach from a stronger position than the party occupied earlier in the year.
Nevertheless, the government cannot assume that this advantage will survive every difficult decision.
Conservatives See an Opportunity to Recover
The Ipsos survey also places the Conservatives in second place, ahead of Reform UK.
For Kemi Badenoch, the figures offer evidence that her party may be recovering some ground after a difficult period in which Reform attracted significant attention from voters on the right.
The Conservatives will want to persuade the public that they can provide a credible alternative on taxation, business, public services and the wider economy.
Badenoch has an opportunity to use the Budget debate to challenge Labour’s decisions and present her party’s own priorities.
The Conservatives are likely to scrutinise any proposed tax increases, spending commitments and economic forecasts. They will also seek to distinguish their approach from both Labour and Reform.
However, a rise in polling support does not resolve the challenges facing the party. It must convince voters that its policies address their concerns and explain how its proposals would be implemented.
The Conservatives also face competition from Reform UK among voters who want a tougher approach to immigration and a significant departure from the political establishment.
Whether Badenoch can sustain the party’s improvement will depend on more than a single set of figures.
Reform UK Faces Questions Over Its Position
Reform UK’s fall to third place in the Ipsos poll marks a change from the period when Nigel Farage’s party regularly challenged for the top position in national voting-intention surveys.
The party has built support around concerns about immigration, public spending, taxation and dissatisfaction with established political parties.
Those issues have not disappeared simply because its polling numbers have fallen.
Indeed, the same Ipsos survey found that Reform retained an advantage over Labour on immigration and asylum policy, demonstrating that the party continues to appeal to voters who prioritise those subjects. <Cite refs={[“turn984287search0”]}/>
Farage will therefore face the task of maintaining that support while persuading voters that Reform is prepared to govern and can deliver its commitments.
The party has also faced scrutiny over candidates, donations and internal controversies. Such issues can become important when voters consider whether a political organisation is ready to take responsibility for government.
Reform’s supporters may regard its positions as a challenge to a political system they believe has failed to address their concerns. Critics may question whether the party’s proposals are practical, affordable or sufficiently detailed.
These competing views will continue to shape the debate.
The latest polling should not be interpreted as evidence that Reform’s political influence has disappeared. Instead, it illustrates how quickly the relative positions of the major parties can change.
Voters Remain Concerned About the Economy
Economic conditions are likely to remain central to the political contest.
The cost of living continues to influence how people judge the government, particularly when wages and household budgets remain under pressure.
Voters may welcome signs of economic improvement, but national economic indicators do not always reflect the experience of individual families.
Someone struggling with rent, energy bills or food costs may not feel better off simply because a particular economic measure has improved.
This gap between national statistics and everyday experience can be politically significant.
Labour will need to demonstrate that its policies can make a difference to household finances. The Conservatives will seek to show that their economic approach would deliver stronger outcomes, while Reform will continue to argue that established parties have not adequately addressed the country’s problems.
The Budget will provide an important opportunity for each party to explain its position.
It will also expose disagreements over how much the government should spend, which taxes should be prioritised and what support should be available to households facing financial pressure.
For voters, the details may matter more than the political language surrounding the announcement.
A Polling Lead Does Not Guarantee Lasting Support
Although the latest figures are encouraging for Labour, polling experts have cautioned against drawing sweeping conclusions from a single survey.
The Ipsos research was conducted online between 15 and 22 October among 1,109 British adults. Its results provide a snapshot of opinion during that period, rather than a guarantee of how people will vote at a future election. <Cite refs={[“turn984287search0”]}/>
Different polling organisations use different methods, and their results can vary. The separate Opinium survey, for example, put Labour on 30%, Reform on 22% and the Conservatives on 20%. <Cite refs={[“turn984287search1”]}/>
Despite the differences, both surveys placed Labour ahead of its main rivals.
That consistency suggests that the party’s improved position deserves attention, but it does not establish that the current figures will remain unchanged.
Political opinion can move rapidly in response to economic developments, leadership performances, policy announcements and unexpected events.
The Budget may influence public perceptions, but its effects will depend on the measures announced and how voters experience their consequences.
A government can gain support by addressing an issue that matters to the public, yet lose it again if expectations are not met.
For Burnham, maintaining confidence will require sustained attention to delivery.
The Government Must Turn Momentum Into Results
The latest polling provides Labour with an opportunity to reshape the political conversation as Burnham approaches his first 100 days in office.
However, the government faces a difficult balancing act. It must respond to public demands for better services and improved living standards while managing the constraints imposed by the public finances.
It must also show that its approach to immigration, defence and economic growth can command confidence beyond its existing supporters.
Opposition parties will continue to challenge its decisions, and the coming Budget will offer them a major opportunity to do so.
For the Conservatives, the task is to build on their improved polling position and demonstrate that they can offer a convincing alternative.
For Reform UK, the priority will be to retain voters who remain concerned about immigration and the performance of established political institutions.
For Labour, the challenge is to prove that the current improvement represents more than a temporary response to a change in leadership.
Britain’s political landscape remains fluid, and no party can safely assume that today’s polling position will determine tomorrow’s debate.
As the country approaches a crucial week for economic policy, attention will turn from percentages to practical decisions.
Voters will be looking for clear answers on taxation, household finances and public services.
Ultimately, the lasting significance of Labour’s polling boost will depend on whether the government can translate its renewed support into results that people can see and feel in their everyday lives.