Prime Minister’s inability to rule out freedom of movement risks turning the next general election into a referendum on immigration – and there can only be one winner
Andy Burnham discusses indefinite leave to remain
It will come as a shock to nobody that immigration is seen as far too high across the UK, and the polling shows it. Why, then, does Andy Burnham appear unable to rule out signing back up to the EU’s freedom of movement scheme?
Surely his advisers have told him that going toe-to-toe with Nigel Farage on Brexit is a bad idea? Or maybe they have seen different polling to the rest of us. Regardless of one’s views on Mr Farage, if there is one topic he knows like the back of his hand, it is the largesse of eurocrats and the ins and outs of Brussels.
While Mr Burnham was busy climbing the greasy pole of Labour politics, Mr Farage spent the better part of 20 years forging a name for himself as Mr Brexit. When journalists get a chance to speak to him on the topic, it is very clear he is in his element.
The Prime Minister has been keen to make it clear he has no intention of hightailing it back to Brussels before a general election, and has ruled out a snap ballot. But all that does is expose the new premier to years of litigation on a subject he may be well advised to avoid.
Context & Baseline
Attitudes towards immigration in Great Britain
“Do you think the level of immigration into Britain over the last 10 years has been too high, too low, or about right?”
Expected immigration impact if Britain rejoined the EU
“If the UK were to rejoin the EU, do you think it would lead to a higher or lower level of immigration compared to recent years, or would it make no real difference?” (All Britons)
With negotiations due to take place next month in Brussels, journalists and politicians will pick over the details of any deal, memorandum or otherwise. Remainers have long desired to unpick the result of the largest democratic vote in British history, and the same tired old arguments are trotted out constantly.
Brexit, in the eyes of the British people, has failed. That is what the polling suggests. Yet to blame the inability of politicians to grasp the nettle on that vote is patronising at best. Rejoining the EU will not fix the problems this country faces.
At the heart of the miscalculation Mr Burnham has made lies his personal desire to return, which has seemingly overridden his ability to face the facts. Seeking a renegotiation that puts the infamous freedom of movement scheme on the table is reckless and electorally poisonous.
Polling shows that some 41% of the British public believe rejoining the EU would increase immigration. Some 69% already believe that immigration is far, far too high. Both of these figures do not account for swings seen in an election environment.
Should Mr Farage choose, he could easily make the next general election a referendum on how this country approaches immigration. Do we take back control of our borders by leaving the European Convention on Human Rights, a troublesome foreign convention that supersedes our laws, or do we buddy up to a trading bloc and open the door again?
You can easily imagine how British people will react to that offer when placed before them, and to which box on the ballot paper their hands may drift come polling day. Mr Farage has made a career out of debating why Britain is best placed outside of the EU. Andy Burnham may now have handed him the best gift of his life – a chance to make those arguments again, at a time when the current on immigration has turned in his favour.
