A proscribed paramilitary group has threated to trigger a ‘civil war’ to drive migrants out of Ireland – experts have warned the threat of ‘localised civil unrest is real’
The New IRA has threatened to trigger a ”civil war’ but is this claim plausible?
The terror group the New IRA have threatened to bring “civil war” to the British Isles as experts have warned the group could trigger riots in their attempts to form an “United Ireland.”
“This will be a major wake-up call for the authorities. These guys will show them how it’s done and give them 24 hours to leave.” He added: “They will take control, and they will give an ultimatum, not to politicians but to the illegal migrants who are in the country.”
Speaking to the Daily Star Christian Kaunert, director of the International Centre for Policing and Security at the University of South Wales, pulled back the lid on the origins of the New IRA terror group.
The security expert said: “The New IRA is a dissident republican paramilitary group that formed in 2012 by merging several violent factions. The group rejected the 1998 Good Friday Agreement and the subsequent Northern Ireland peace process.
“It was created when the Real IRA joined forces with Republican Action Against Drugs (RAAD) and independent vigilante groups. They refer to themselves simply as the ‘Irish Republican Army’.
Experts has issued a verdict on the terror group’s claims
The international security expert has stated the paramilitary groups’ claims to threaten the country with “civil war” is “highly exaggerated.” But Mr Kaunert added that, “the risk of localised civil unrest is real”.
He said: “The New IRA is attempting a major ideological pivot by latching onto anti-immigration sentiment. They are using online rhetoric to threaten migrant communities directly.
“However, their ability to organize a large-scale armed conflict is severely restricted. The main danger is not a coordinated military campaign. It is the potential for localized riots, arson, and intimidation against vulnerable communities.”
He added: “While the risk of localized civil unrest is real, the threat of an actual ‘civil war’ is highly exaggerated. Paramilitary groups are trying to hijack public anxieties surrounding immigration to regain social relevance.
“The New IRA’s violent anti-migrant stance represents a strange, contradictory shift for an organization historically rooted in left-wing anti-imperialism.
“Across continental Europe, populist and anti-immigration sentiment is usually expressed through legitimate political parties or far-right street movements.
“In contrast, the New IRA remains an illegal, proscribed terrorist organization. Their adoption of anti-migrant rhetoric mirrors European far-right talking points.
Professor Elizabeth Pearson, associate professor in criminology at Royal Holloway University London, told the Star armed groups in Ireland have previously claimed to protect communities from crime through vigilante action.
The terror group could launch arson attacks
She said: “Different Irish paramilitary groups have for a long time claimed to protect communities from crime, such as drug-dealing, through vigilante action. So they will try to exploit the current climate, where ‘migrant crime’ is a key political issue, just as far right groups do – and to attract supporters.”
The expert in counter-terrorism studies added: “The official IRA were actually linked to left-wing Marxist ideologies in the 1960s, but we are increasingly seeing the mainstreaming of what are essentially far right ‘accelerationist’ ideas which promote violence and disorder to stoke collapse, and rebuild a different type of society.
“In the marketplace of ideas, if an armed group thinks this will prove popular with its base audience, it will pursue this.”
New IRA ‘May Bring Riots’ to the British Isles After Issuing ‘Civil War’ Warning
Warnings about a possible new wave of violence in Ireland have sparked concern after reports suggested that the dissident republican group known as the New IRA could seek to exploit tensions surrounding immigration. The claims have raised questions about public safety, the risk of attacks against migrant communities and the potential consequences for Northern Ireland and the wider United Kingdom.
The controversy intensified in August 2026 after an unidentified man appeared in a social media video threatening migrants in Ireland with an ultimatum to leave. The speaker used the phrase “civil war” and suggested that violence could follow if migrants did not depart or authorities failed to remove them. Media reports subsequently attributed the threat to the New IRA, a dissident republican organisation opposed to the Northern Ireland peace settlement. <Cite refs={[“turn739879search2″,”turn739879search6”]}/>
However, an important distinction remains: the video’s speaker was not publicly identified, and the specific claim that the New IRA had formally adopted a campaign targeting migrants has not been independently established in the public evidence cited in these reports. The threat should therefore be treated seriously without assuming that every claim about the group’s intentions has been verified.
A Threat That Has Raised Security Concerns
The reported warning emerged amid heightened tensions over immigration and asylum accommodation in Ireland. According to media reports citing unnamed security sources, officials were concerned that dissident republicans could attempt to exploit public anger and use intimidation to advance their own political objectives.
The video reportedly called for migrants described by the speaker as being in the country illegally to leave within 24 hours. It also suggested that the group would take matters into its own hands rather than wait for political leaders to act.
Such language is alarming because threats against a community can create fear even if a wider campaign never materialises. Migrants and asylum seekers could become targets of harassment, attacks on accommodation or intimidation in public spaces. Any resulting violence could also prompt confrontations with police and further destabilise already tense communities.
Nevertheless, rhetoric alone does not establish the existence of an operational plan. Assessing the threat requires reliable intelligence, corroborated evidence and clear information from the relevant authorities. The distinction between a genuine organisational directive and an unverified online claim is particularly important when reporting allegations involving a terrorist organisation.
Who Are the New IRA?
The New IRA is a dissident republican group that emerged from the merger of several militant republican factions in 2012. It rejects the Good Friday Agreement and continues to advocate Irish reunification through an approach that includes political violence.
The organisation is separate from the Provisional IRA, which formally ended its armed campaign and decommissioned its weapons following the peace process. The New IRA has remained associated with attacks against security personnel and other violent activity, despite being much smaller than the organisations that fought during the Troubles.
The history of Northern Ireland demonstrates the consequences of allowing political and communal tensions to escalate into organised violence. Decades of conflict brought bombings, shootings, deaths and lasting trauma to communities across Northern Ireland, Ireland and Britain.
The Good Friday Agreement of 1998 established a framework for power-sharing, democratic participation and cooperation between the British and Irish governments. Although dissident groups have continued to oppose that settlement, they have not overturned the political framework it established.
A reported attempt to turn immigration into a new justification for violence would represent a serious development if substantiated. But the group’s historical record should not be used as proof that every new threat attributed to it is authentic or authorised by its leadership. <Cite refs={[“turn739879search3″,”turn739879news9”]}/>