Reform UK has fallen to third place behind Kemi Badenoch’s resurgent Conservatives in an opinion poll.

Nigel Farage’s party slipped to 21 per cent, two points behind the Tories and three behind Labour, according to a YouGov poll carried out on Oct 11 and 12.

The Conservatives, on 23 per cent, recorded a three-point “bounce” from YouGov’s previous poll, carried out on Oct 5, as voters rewarded Mrs Badenoch’s plan to cut taxes for middle-class families.

At the party’s annual conference last week, she announced that a future Tory government would abolish inheritance tax (IHT) on family homes and give free access to childcare for voters earning more than £100,000.

In a direct appeal to higher earners and the wealthy, she promised to build a country “for every hard-working person out there” and to let workers “keep more of what they earn”.

The YouGov survey of 2,393 adults, commissioned by The Times, recorded the lowest score for Reform since polling restarted after the general election, and the first time the Tories have been ahead of Mr Farage’s party since 2024.

Anthony Wells, global head of politics at YouGov, said: “I suspect there is some degree of ‘conference bounce’ there, with the Tories getting a boost from their coverage, and Labour declining again as the temporary impact of their own conference fades.”

He added: “It may well be a temporary boost but this is the first time that we have had Reform in third place since 2024.”

The poll found the Liberal Democrats were up one point to 12 per cent.

Meanwhile, the Green Party stayed at 11 per cent following a party conference overshadowed by accusations of anti-Semitism.

Zack Polanski and Sir Ed Davey have come under mounting pressure to resign in recent days with senior figures in both parties questioning their leaderships.

Mr Polanski has been accused of being “missing in action” over his failure to vote in the party’s Zionism is racism motion.

The policy, which implicitly called for the abolition of the state of Israel, was passed by members at this month’s party conference, while the Green leader was campaigning in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, which he lost.

Sir Ed is also facing a mutiny within the Liberal Democrats after Charlie Maynard, the party’s Treasury spokesman, resigned from the party’s front bench on Friday.

The Lib Dems and Greens were followed by the SNP on 3 per cent and Restore Britain on 2 per cent, suggesting Rupert Lowe’s far-Right party still acts as a thorn in the side of Reform.

The poll will make for uncomfortable viewing inside Reform HQ, after their party conference was overshadowed last month by a Channel 4 sting over donations. It led to the departure of two of Mr Farage’s closest aides.

The party has since received a record £72m donation from two billionaire backers, which has transformed its prospects and reinvigorated the party leader. Reform plans to use the money to hire hundreds of campaign managers and policy specialists, and to launch a YouTube-based TV channel.

Mr Farage is currently in the process of a nationwide tour as the party prepares for the possibility of Andy Burnham, the Prime Minister, calling an early general election next year.

On Monday, the party announced its most stringent border policy to date. It said a Reform government would impose a five-year ban on migrants being granted asylum and deport 90,000 applicants currently on waiting lists.

Reform Falls to Third in Polls After Badenoch Bounce as UK Political Battle Takes a New Turn

Britain’s political landscape has been thrown into fresh uncertainty after Reform UK reportedly fell to third place in the polls following a resurgence in support for Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch. The development could represent an important turning point in the battle for the future of the British right, raising questions about Nigel Farage’s strategy, the Conservatives’ prospects of recovery, and the ability of smaller political movements to maintain momentum in an increasingly unpredictable political environment.

For months, Reform UK has sought to establish itself as the principal alternative to the established political parties. Its message on immigration, national identity, taxation and the economy has attracted voters who feel increasingly disconnected from Westminster. However, a reported improvement in Conservative support suggests that the political contest may be more complicated than Reform’s leadership had anticipated.

The possibility of Reform slipping to third place is particularly significant because the party has built much of its political identity around the claim that it represents a powerful alternative to both Labour and the Conservatives. If Badenoch can persuade disillusioned Conservative voters to return to her party, Farage may find it harder to present Reform as the inevitable destination for those demanding political change.

Badenoch’s Bounce Creates New Momentum for the Conservatives

Kemi Badenoch faces one of the most difficult challenges in British politics: rebuilding confidence in a Conservative Party that has experienced years of internal conflict, electoral disappointment and declining public trust.

Her reported polling bounce could provide a much-needed opportunity to change the narrative surrounding her leadership. Rather than being viewed primarily as the leader of a party struggling to recover from its previous failures, Badenoch may now have an opportunity to position the Conservatives as a credible force capable of challenging both Labour and Reform.

The scale and durability of any improvement will be crucial. A temporary increase in support does not necessarily indicate that voters have fundamentally changed their political preferences. Polling figures can fluctuate in response to major announcements, media coverage, leadership performances and dissatisfaction with rival parties.

Nevertheless, even a modest recovery could have important consequences for the Conservatives. Political momentum matters, particularly when a party is attempting to convince voters that it remains relevant and capable of governing.

Badenoch must demonstrate that the Conservatives have learned from their mistakes and can offer a clear alternative to the government. That means presenting convincing policies on public spending, economic growth, immigration, public services and living standards.

If she succeeds, the party could recover some of the voters who previously turned to Reform out of frustration. If she fails to maintain the momentum, however, Farage could once again exploit Conservative weaknesses and strengthen his argument that only Reform can deliver meaningful change.

Nigel Farage Faces an Important Test

For Nigel Farage, the reported decline represents a potentially uncomfortable development. Reform UK has benefited from dissatisfaction with mainstream politics, but sustaining that support requires more than simply criticising the government and the opposition.

Farage has spent years building a political movement around issues that he believes have been neglected by established parties. Immigration, border security, national sovereignty and the cost of living remain central to Reform’s appeal. The party has also sought to attract voters who believe that traditional political institutions have become disconnected from ordinary people.

Yet the challenge for Reform is to turn protest votes into lasting political loyalty.

Some voters may support the party because they are angry with Labour. Others may have abandoned the Conservatives because they believe successive governments failed to deliver on promises. These voters do not necessarily share identical political priorities, and their support may prove fragile if another party appears to offer a more convincing solution.

A recovery by Badenoch could expose these divisions. Conservative voters who prefer lower taxes, stricter immigration controls and a smaller state might reconsider their support for Reform if they believe the Conservatives are once again capable of representing their interests.

Farage must therefore decide how to respond. He could intensify his attacks on Badenoch and portray the Conservative recovery as temporary. Alternatively, he could focus on demonstrating that Reform possesses the policies, organisation and experienced candidates necessary to govern.

Neither approach guarantees success. Aggressive campaigning can energise existing supporters, but it may also reinforce concerns among undecided voters. A more detailed policy programme could strengthen the party’s credibility, although it would also expose its proposals to closer scrutiny.

Why Polling Changes Matter

The reported movement in the polls highlights the importance of understanding the difference between political headlines and underlying electoral trends.

A party falling to third place in one poll does not automatically mean that its support has collapsed. Different polling organisations use different methodologies, sample sizes and approaches to weighting responses. Results can also vary depending on when the survey was conducted and which voters participated.

The precise figures, the polling organisation and comparisons with previous surveys are therefore essential when assessing the significance of the reported change.

Nevertheless, the political impact of such a headline can extend beyond the numbers themselves. Voters often consider whether a party appears capable of winning before deciding where to place their support. If Reform is perceived to be losing momentum while the Conservatives are recovering, some wavering voters may conclude that supporting Badenoch offers a more practical route to influencing the next government.

This possibility is particularly relevant in a political environment where voters are increasingly willing to change parties between elections.

Polls can influence media coverage, campaign donations, candidate recruitment and the confidence of party activists. A positive result can encourage supporters to become more involved, while disappointing figures may trigger arguments about leadership, messaging and strategic direction.

However, political parties must avoid treating every survey as a definitive verdict. The most important question is whether the reported shift continues across multiple polls and translates into meaningful changes in voter behaviour.

The Conservative Party’s Opportunity to Rebuild

Badenoch’s challenge extends beyond enjoying a short-term increase in support. She must convince voters that the Conservatives can be trusted again after a period of political instability and public dissatisfaction.

Many former Conservative supporters have expressed frustration over taxation, public services, immigration and the management of the economy. Others have questioned whether the party has a sufficiently distinctive identity after years of changing leaders and conflicting political messages.

Winning those voters back will require consistency.

Badenoch needs to explain what a Conservative government would do differently, how its plans would be funded and why voters should believe that its promises would be delivered. General commitments to economic growth or tighter immigration controls may not be enough to persuade people who have heard similar arguments before.

The party must also distinguish itself from Reform without simply copying Farage’s rhetoric. If the Conservatives present themselves as a less convincing version of Reform, voters may prefer the original. If they move too far towards the political centre, they risk alienating supporters who want a more forceful response to immigration and government spending.

Finding the right balance will be difficult.

Badenoch’s reported bounce could give her greater room to define that balance, but it also raises expectations. Supporters will want to see evidence that improved polling reflects a genuine recovery rather than a temporary reaction to political events.

Immigration and the Battle for the Right

Immigration remains one of the most important issues separating the political parties competing for conservative voters.

Reform UK has made reducing immigration and strengthening border controls central to its political message. Farage has repeatedly argued that established parties have failed to address public concerns effectively.

The Conservatives have also promised tougher immigration policies, making the issue a direct point of competition between the two parties.

Badenoch must show that her proposals are credible, enforceable and consistent with wider economic needs. Employers in some sectors depend on overseas workers, while public services face their own staffing challenges. Any policy changes must therefore address not only the number of people entering the country but also the practical consequences for businesses, communities and government finances.

Reform, meanwhile, must demonstrate that its proposals could be implemented successfully and produce the results it promises.

For voters, the debate is not simply about which party uses the strongest language. It is about whether political leaders can deliver measurable improvements and explain the costs, legal requirements and practical challenges involved.

The party that persuades voters it has the most credible plan could gain a substantial advantage.