Reform UK leader Nigel Farage (Image: Getty)
Nigel Farage would likely cruise to victory in a second Clacton by-election, new polling analysis suggests. The Reform UK leader would also defeat a Conservative candidate, even if Labour stood aside in a contest, according to evaluations by Electoral Calculus.
Mr Farage, who was re-elected to the Clacton seat after securing 62.82% of the vote, could have to go to the polls again depending on the outcome of a parliamentary probe into a £5 million gift he received from crypto-billionaire Christopher Harborne. The other main Westminster parties boycotted last week’s vote, dismissing it as a stunt. However, Electoral Calculus’ analysis suggests Mr Farage will likely win again — regardless of who he is up against.
Reform’s main political rivals boycotted the Clacton by-election (Image: Getty)
The assessment, shared with GB News and based on national polling, shows Mr Farage’s support stands at 44%, with the Tories in second at 22%.
Labour is at 12%, while the Liberal Democrats and Greens are on 7% and 4% respectively.
GB News, citing sources, claims the Conservatives are considering ways to take on Mr Farage in another potential by-election.
It is suggested this could include a deal with Labour that would see Andy Burnham’s party not put forward a candidate — something Labour insiders have dismissed.
Even if Labour, Lib Dems and Greens didn’t join the contest, it still wouldn’t be enough to stop a Reform win, according to Electoral Calculus.
In this scenario, Mr Farage is predicted to receive 47% of the vote, with the Tories getting 42%.
The remaining 11% of the electorate would support another candidate.
A record 34 candidates stood in last week’s by-election.
Mr Farage comfortably won after receiving 22,239 votes — around 1,000 more than he got in 2024.
His closest rival, comedy candidate Count Binface, got 9,455 votes as Reform’s main Westminster political rivals refused to take part.
The contest was triggered last month as Mr Farage quit as an MP to fight a “people versus the establishment” by-election in protest at parliamentary and media scrutiny of financial donations and support from his backers.
Mr Farage said he had done “nothing wrong” and that the people of Clacton “should be the judges of my actions”.
Nigel Farage’s ‘True Chances’ in a New By-Election Revealed in Bombshell Poll
Nigel Farage’s political future has come under renewed scrutiny after polling analysis examined how the Reform UK leader might perform if he were forced to fight another by-election in Clacton. The findings offered a glimpse into the strength of his personal support, the continuing competition between Britain’s political parties and the potential consequences of the investigation into his financial declarations.
Farage secured a decisive victory in the Clacton by-election held on 13 August 2026, winning 22,239 votes and returning to the House of Commons as the Reform UK MP for the Essex constituency. His nearest rival was satirical candidate Count Binface, who received 9,455 votes. The main Westminster parties had declined to field candidates, arguing that the contest was unnecessary. <Cite refs={[“turn927419search1″,”turn927419news11”]} />
However, the result did not bring every question surrounding Farage to an end. The parliamentary investigation into whether he should have declared a £5 million gift from cryptocurrency investor Christopher Harborne resumed after his re-election. Farage has denied wrongdoing and maintained that he was not required to register the money as a political donation.
Against that background, a polling analysis by Electoral Calculus, reported in August, examined how a hypothetical second contest might unfold. The figures suggested that Farage could remain competitive even if the circumstances surrounding his return to Parliament changed. But the distinction between a modelled scenario and an actual election is crucial: no poll can guarantee that voters would behave in the same way in a future contest.
What the Polling Analysis Suggested
According to the reported Electoral Calculus analysis, Farage’s support stood at approximately 44% in a hypothetical contest, with the Conservatives on 22%, Labour on 12%, the Liberal Democrats on 7% and the Greens on 4%. In a scenario where Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens did not participate, the analysis suggested that Farage could receive 47%, compared with 42% for the Conservatives. <Cite refs={[“turn927419search0”]} />
These figures indicated that a second contest could be closely shaped by the identity of the candidates and the decisions taken by rival parties. The results were projections based on polling and modelling, not a fresh ballot of Clacton residents.
That distinction matters because by-elections are often influenced by local circumstances. The profile of individual candidates, campaign organisation, turnout and the issues dominating the news can all affect the final result. A voter who supports a party in a national opinion poll may make a different choice when presented with a specific candidate in their constituency.
Farage’s personal profile could also influence the outcome. He has spent decades building a public identity around opposition to the political establishment, Brexit and tighter immigration controls. His supporters often see him as a politician prepared to challenge established parties, while his critics question his policies and political approach.
A new by-election would therefore involve more than a straightforward comparison of party manifestos. It could become a referendum on Farage himself, his leadership of Reform UK and the questions surrounding his financial affairs.
Why Clacton Matters to Reform UK
Clacton is an important constituency for Farage because it provides a parliamentary base for a party that has sought to challenge the dominance of Labour and the Conservatives.
Reform UK’s appeal has been linked to dissatisfaction with established political parties, concerns about immigration, frustration over public services and demands for changes to taxation and government spending. Farage has sought to bring these issues together under a message of political change.
His re-election in August gave him another opportunity to present himself as a direct representative of voters who believe their concerns have not been adequately addressed. It also allowed Reform UK to maintain its most prominent figure in Parliament at a time when the party was seeking to expand its national influence.
Yet the circumstances of the contest were unusual. The absence of the major Westminster parties meant Farage did not face the same kind of direct competition that would normally be expected in a parliamentary by-election. Count Binface attracted a substantial protest vote, illustrating that some voters were willing to use the ballot to express dissatisfaction with the contest itself.
Consequently, the result cannot automatically be treated as evidence of how Farage would perform against a full field of Labour, Conservative and other candidates. A second contest featuring the main parties could produce a different pattern of support.
For Reform UK, the central challenge would be to demonstrate that its strength in Clacton could translate into victories in constituencies with different political histories and demographic profiles.
The Financial Investigation Remains Significant
The controversy surrounding Farage’s financial declarations has created an additional layer of uncertainty.
Farage resigned from Parliament in July before seeking a renewed mandate from Clacton voters. He presented the decision as an opportunity for constituents to judge him directly, arguing that he had been unfairly targeted by the political establishment. The investigation concerned whether a substantial gift should have been declared under parliamentary rules. Farage has denied that he breached those rules. <Cite refs={[“turn927419news13″,”turn927419search8”]} />
The outcome of such an investigation is separate from the question of electoral support. A politician can retain the backing of many voters while still being required to answer questions about compliance with parliamentary standards.
Polling published before the August by-election illustrated this tension. An Opinium survey for The Spectator found that 44% of respondents thought Farage had been right to call the election, while 31% thought he had been wrong. At the same time, 42% believed the move was primarily a political strategy to strengthen his position, compared with 19% who believed its main purpose was to let voters judge his actions. <Cite refs={[“turn927419search2”]} />
These findings suggest that voters may distinguish between supporting a politician’s decision to seek re-election and accepting that the wider questions surrounding that politician have been resolved.
Farage’s victory was an electoral result, not a ruling on the financial investigation. The political consequences would depend partly on the investigation’s findings, any subsequent decisions by parliamentary authorities and the way voters interpreted those developments.
Could the Conservatives Mount a Serious Challenge?
The possibility of a second contest would raise questions about the Conservatives’ strategy. In the reported polling scenario, the party was Farage’s closest projected challenger, particularly if other parties withdrew.
A coordinated opposition campaign might appear attractive to parties concerned about Reform UK’s growing influence. However, cooperation would be difficult to arrange. Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives have different policy priorities, voter coalitions and reasons for contesting elections independently.
A party that stands aside may help another candidate defeat a common opponent, but it also risks alienating its own supporters. Voters are not obliged to follow instructions from party leaders, and some may choose an independent candidate or stay at home rather than support a rival party.
The Conservatives would also need to convince Clacton voters that they offered a credible alternative. Their ability to do so would depend on the candidate selected, the campaign’s central message and whether voters believed the party had changed sufficiently since its time in government.
Labour would face a different calculation. Its decision to participate or withdraw could affect the distribution of votes, but the consequences would depend on the local electorate rather than national polling alone.
Any attempt to engineer a particular result through tactical cooperation would therefore involve considerable uncertainty.
National Polls Offer a Wider Perspective
Farage’s position in Clacton should also be considered alongside national voting-intention figures. A constituency by-election measures the preferences of a particular electorate under specific circumstances, whereas a national poll asks people how they would vote in a general election.
The two measures can move in different directions. A party may retain a strong local base while losing support nationally, or it may improve its national polling position without immediately winning additional parliamentary seats.
A More in Common poll based on fieldwork conducted between 16 and 19 October 2026 placed Labour on 27.7%, the Conservatives on 23.3% and Reform UK on 21.5%. The figures were a snapshot of national voting intention among surveyed adults, not a prediction of the result in Clacton. <Cite refs={[“turn927419search7”]} />
For Reform UK, the challenge is to sustain its appeal beyond Farage’s personal following. A party hoping to win a substantial number of parliamentary seats needs candidates who can campaign effectively in different constituencies, a clear policy programme and the organisational capacity to compete across the country.
The party must also manage the risks that accompany rapid growth. Candidate selection, internal disagreements, public statements by representatives and scrutiny of its finances can all influence public perceptions. Allegations or controversies should be assessed on their evidence and outcomes, rather than automatically treated as proof of wider conclusions about the party.
For Labour and the Conservatives, Reform UK’s position creates a competing challenge: both must consider how to respond to voters who are dissatisfied with the political status quo without assuming that all those voters share the same priorities.
A By-Election Would Not Settle the National Debate
Even if Farage were required to fight another by-election, the result would not determine the outcome of the next general election. It would, however, offer an indication of how voters in Clacton responded to the circumstances surrounding his political position.
A victory could strengthen his claim that constituents continued to support him despite the controversy. A reduced majority could raise questions about the limits of his personal appeal, although turnout, candidate selection and the behaviour of rival parties would also need to be considered.
A defeat would be a significant local setback, but its wider implications would depend on the scale of the result and the circumstances in which it occurred.
The reported polling analysis suggested that Farage retained a substantial base of support in the constituency. Yet the actual August result, achieved in a contest boycotted by the major Westminster parties, provides a more complicated picture than a simple claim that he would inevitably win any future election.
The decisive questions remain whether the financial investigation produces further consequences, whether the major parties choose to contest any subsequent by-election and how Clacton voters respond if given a different choice of candidates.
Farage has already demonstrated that he can win re-election in the constituency. What remains uncertain is how resilient that support would be under different electoral conditions.
Ultimately, a poll can reveal possible outcomes and help explain the political calculations facing the parties, but it cannot substitute for the votes cast on election day. For Reform UK, the longer-term test is whether its support can be maintained, broadened and converted into parliamentary representation across Britain. For Farage personally, any future contest would test both his established local following and his ability to persuade voters that the questions surrounding his political career have been answered.