Reform UK leader Nigel Farage (Image: Getty)
Nigel Farage has suffered a setback after Reform UK lost a county council seat to Labour, which surged ahead with a 14.9-point increase in its share of the vote. Labour candidate Jane Lennie won the Shepshed division of Leicestershire County Council in Thursday’s by-election, overturning Reform’s victory in the seat last year.
Ms Lennie secured 32.8% of the vote, compared with 31.3% for Reform candidate Stuart Brian Wood, according to the result published by election trackers. The Conservatives finished third with 23.1%, while Restore Britain took 6.4%. The Liberal Democrats and Greens each received 3.2%. Labour’s vote share increased by 14.9 percentage points compared with the previous contest in May 2025, while Reform’s fell by 13.6 points.
The result marks a reversal for Mr Farage’s party in a division it had won with 45% of the vote at the previous county council election.
The by-election was triggered by the resignation of Reform councillor Helen Butler in August. Reform remains the largest party on Leicestershire County Council, where it runs a minority administration.
The result comes amid a changing picture in national voting-intention polls, with Labour recovering ground against Reform in several recent surveys.
A YouGov poll for The Times and Sky News, conducted on October 11 and 12, put Labour on 24%, the Conservatives on 23% and Reform on 21%.
The figures placed all three parties within the poll’s margin of error, although Reform’s share was its joint-lowest in YouGov’s tracker during the current Parliament.
A separate polling average published by PollCheck on October 15 put Labour on 27.1%, with Reform on 22.1% and the Conservatives on 21.7%.
The national figures suggest the contest between the parties remains close, although voting in a single council division cannot establish a nationwide trend.
Mr Farage’s party made major gains in local elections in May 2025, including in Leicestershire, where it emerged as the largest group on the county council.
But the Shepshed result demonstrates how quickly a seat can change hands, with Labour moving from 18% of the vote in the previous contest to become the largest party in Thursday’s by-election.
The Conservatives’ share also fell, down 2.4 percentage points to 23.1%, while the Liberal Democrats dropped 3.4 points and the Greens fell 1.9 points.
The result will provide Labour with a local boost as the parties compete for support ahead of the next general election, which must be held by 2029.
However, the by-election alone does not show whether the shift towards Labour will be replicated elsewhere, and national polling continues to put the three largest parties within striking distance of one another.
Blow for Nigel Farage as Reform UK Lose Seat to Labour With Big Vote Swing
Nigel Farage has suffered a setback after Reform UK lost a county council seat to Labour in a by-election in Leicestershire, with the result highlighting the challenges facing the party as it seeks to turn its national political profile into sustained electoral success.
Labour candidate Jane Lennie won the Shepshed division of Leicestershire County Council on Thursday, 15 October 2026, overturning Reform’s victory in the same seat in 2025. Lennie secured 32.8 per cent of the vote, narrowly ahead of Reform candidate Stuart Brian Wood on 31.3 per cent. The Conservatives finished third with 23.1 per cent. <Cite refs={[“turn728142search0”]}/>
The result was notable not simply because Reform lost a seat it had previously held, but because the vote shares moved substantially between the two contests. Labour’s share rose by 14.9 percentage points, while Reform’s fell by 13.6 points, according to the published figures. <Cite refs={[“turn728142search0”]}/>
For Farage, who has built Reform UK around the promise of challenging the established political parties, the outcome provides a reminder that national momentum does not automatically translate into victories in every local contest.
However, one council by-election cannot establish a nationwide trend on its own. The result must be considered alongside local circumstances, turnout, candidate campaigns and the wider political picture.
Labour Makes a Significant Comeback
Lennie’s victory represented a considerable improvement for Labour in Shepshed. The party had finished behind Reform in the previous contest, but this time managed to move into first place with a vote share of 32.8 per cent.
The Conservatives, meanwhile, took 23.1 per cent, leaving them behind both Labour and Reform. The result demonstrated that the contest was not simply a straightforward choice between Farage’s party and the Conservatives. Labour was able to attract enough support to win, despite the competition from two parties seeking to appeal to voters dissatisfied with the political establishment.
The relatively narrow margin between Labour and Reform also underlines how closely fought the contest was. Lennie’s lead was just 1.5 percentage points, meaning the result depended on a comparatively small difference in the votes cast for the two leading candidates.
That margin makes the swing between the previous election and the by-election especially noteworthy. Labour’s improved share was large enough to overturn the earlier result, while Reform’s support declined substantially.
Nevertheless, the precise reasons individual voters changed their choices cannot be established from the result alone. Local issues, campaigning, candidate recognition and the decision of voters who previously supported smaller parties may all have played a part.
What the Result Means for Nigel Farage
Farage has spent much of his political career arguing that voters are turning away from Labour and the Conservatives in favour of a party prepared to take a tougher approach to immigration, public spending and Britain’s political institutions.
Reform’s electoral progress has made it an important force in national politics. But the Shepshed result illustrates the difficulty of maintaining support across different types of elections and constituencies.
A party can perform strongly in national opinion polls while encountering problems in individual wards and council divisions. Local contests are shaped by issues that may receive little attention in national debates, and voters sometimes make different choices when selecting local representatives rather than deciding which party they would prefer to govern the country.
For Reform, the loss also raises questions about its ability to defend seats it has already won. Winning a constituency can demonstrate that a party has attracted support, but retaining it requires continued organisation, effective local representation and a convincing campaign.
Farage will want his party to demonstrate that its support is durable rather than dependent on temporary dissatisfaction with the government. Results such as Shepshed provide opponents with an opportunity to challenge that claim, even though they do not settle the question nationally.
A Challenge to Reform’s National Momentum
The Leicestershire result comes amid signs that the competition between Britain’s political parties remains fluid. National polling can change rapidly, and recent estimates have shown different possible outcomes depending on the polling organisation, methodology and assumptions used to translate votes into parliamentary seats.
More in Common’s September 2026 model, for example, projected Reform UK to win 147 seats, down from 293 in its July projection. Its analysis also found that many of Reform’s projected seats would be vulnerable because of narrow winning margins. <Cite refs={[“turn728142search5”]}/>
Such projections are models rather than actual election results, and they should not be confused with predictions that a particular outcome is certain. Nevertheless, they illustrate the importance of small changes in support when a party’s projected victories depend on closely contested seats.
The Shepshed by-election provides a real local example of how shifts in vote share can change which party wins. Labour’s increase and Reform’s decline were sufficient to reverse the outcome of the previous contest.
But the wider electoral picture remains more complicated. Reform continues to compete for voters who previously supported the Conservatives, while Labour must defend its own support against challengers on both the left and right. The Conservatives, meanwhile, face pressure to rebuild their position in areas where voters have moved towards alternative parties.
The Shepshed result is therefore one part of a larger and changing political landscape.
Could Tactical Voting Have Played a Role?
Tactical voting is a recurring feature of British elections, particularly where voters believe that one candidate has a realistic chance of defeating a party they strongly oppose.
Under the first-past-the-post system used in many British elections, a candidate does not need to win an absolute majority of all votes cast. They simply need to receive more votes than any rival. As a result, even relatively modest changes in how voters distribute their support can determine the winner.
In a contest involving Labour, Reform and the Conservatives, voters who might otherwise support a smaller party may decide to back one of the leading candidates instead. Such decisions can affect the outcome without necessarily reflecting a permanent change in political allegiance.
It would be premature, however, to conclude that tactical voting was responsible for Labour’s victory in Shepshed without more detailed evidence. The published totals show how the parties performed, but they do not reveal the motivations of individual voters.
The result does demonstrate why campaign strategy and local organisation matter. Parties must persuade voters not only that their policies are attractive, but also that their candidate can represent the area effectively.
Immigration and the National Political Debate
Immigration remains one of the most prominent issues associated with Reform UK. Farage has repeatedly argued that Britain needs stricter border controls, faster removals of people who have no legal right to remain and a more forceful response to small-boat crossings across the English Channel.
Those proposals have helped define the party’s national message, alongside its positions on taxation, public services and government accountability. Yet a local election does not necessarily turn on the same issues that dominate national political coverage.
Residents may be more concerned about roads, local transport, planning decisions, public amenities, council finances or the performance of local representatives. National immigration policy may influence their views, but it is only one potential factor in a local contest.
Labour’s victory in Shepshed should therefore not automatically be interpreted as a public endorsement of every policy associated with the party, just as Reform’s previous win did not necessarily mean that every voter agreed with Farage’s entire programme.
Election results provide evidence about voter choices, but interpreting the reasons behind those choices requires caution.
Labour Faces Its Own Test
Although the result is a setback for Reform, it also creates expectations for Labour. Winning a seat after a substantial improvement in vote share gives the party an opportunity to demonstrate that it can maintain the support it has regained.
The challenge will be turning an electoral victory into effective local representation. Voters who have switched parties may expect visible improvements in local services and practical solutions to the issues affecting their communities.
If those expectations are not met, the support gained during a by-election could prove temporary. Labour will need to show that its campaign promises translate into action and that its local representatives remain responsive to residents.
The Conservatives will also be examining the outcome. Finishing third behind Labour and Reform illustrates the difficulty of competing in a political environment where voters have several alternatives to the traditional governing parties.
For all three parties, the contest provides lessons about campaigning, voter engagement and the importance of local issues.
Why One By-Election Is Not the Whole Story
Political parties frequently interpret by-election results in ways that support their wider narratives. A victory may be presented as evidence of renewed momentum, while a defeat may be described as a warning sign for a rival.
Yet by-elections are small-scale contests, and their results can be affected by circumstances that do not apply nationally. Turnout may differ from a general election, local candidates can have unusually strong or weak profiles, and voters may use the opportunity to express dissatisfaction without intending to change their long-term allegiance.
The Shepshed result should therefore be understood as a specific electoral setback for Reform UK rather than definitive proof that the party’s national support has collapsed.
At the same time, it offers a concrete reminder that the party must compete for every vote. A strong national profile does not guarantee that voters will support Reform in local elections, and previous victories do not ensure that seats will be retained.
Conclusion: A Warning Sign, but Not a National Verdict
Reform UK’s loss of the Shepshed council division to Labour is a notable result for both parties. Jane Lennie’s victory, with 32.8 per cent of the vote against Reform’s 31.3 per cent, overturned the previous outcome and was accompanied by a substantial shift in the parties’ vote shares. <Cite refs={[“turn728142search0”]}/>
For Farage, the defeat highlights the challenge of converting national attention into consistent electoral performance. For Labour, it offers evidence that the party can recover ground in a competitive local contest. For the Conservatives, it provides another indication of the pressure created by a fragmented political landscape.
The wider implications remain uncertain. One by-election cannot determine what will happen at the next general election, nor can it establish why every voter made their choice.
What it does show is that electoral support can move quickly, even in a seat a party previously won. As Britain’s political competition continues to evolve, Reform, Labour and the Conservatives will all need to demonstrate that their promises, candidates and local campaigns can persuade voters when it matters most.