Winter is coming and Andy Burnham should be afraid. The lights could go out on his hopes of winning the next election.
The last thing Andy Burnham needs is blackouts, so he’d better brighten up (Image: Getty)
I don’t know if the PM is afraid of the dark, but he should be. Britain is facing one of its most perilous winters in decades, with increasingly urgent warnings of blackouts for the first time since the 1970s. In fact, it seems like we came dangerously close to one during June’s heatwave. If we can’t keep the lights on in the height of summer, imagine what a winter cold snap might bring. It should give Burnham nightmares. He needs to wake up to the threat.
The last time Britain suffered widespread power cuts was during the miners’ strikes of the 1970s, which forced the government to ration electricity and introduce the infamous three-day week. It was a national humiliation that helped bring down Edward Heath’s government. We haven’t experienced a repeat but that doesn’t mean we’re safe. MPs recently warned that Britain is now hostage to global events as the Middle East goes up in flames again.
In June, whistleblowers alleged serious failures at the National Energy System Operator (Neso). Neso denies energy supplies were at risk, but it recently introduced contingency measures to allow three-hour rolling blackouts. National Grid is now encouraging households to acquire six vital items should their power supply fail. As the world faces a terrifying energy shock, the UK is on the brink. Our energy policy has been a shambles for years, and Labour hasn’t even started to put it right. Quite the reverse.
As energy secretary, Ed Miliband prioritised net zero ideology and political posturing over energy security. His first step was to block new North Sea oil and gas drilling, making us one of the very few countries in the world to refuse to use our own natural resources. Yet we are happy to ship liquefied natural gas from Qatar and buy jet fuel from Vladimir Putin, funding his war machine.
We’re now waiting to see whether Burnham will green light the Rosebank oil field and Jackdaw gas field. He promised a more “pragmatic” approach, but so far all we’ve had is dithering. Burnham put off this vital decision until after the recent by-election in Holborn and St Pancras, to avoid handing the Green Party a stick to beat him with, that might secure a seat in Westminster for its leader Zack Polanski.
Labour won, but we still don’t have that decision. Jackdaw and Rosebank won’t magically solve Britain’s energy problems, but they’ll help. Jackdaw alone could produce enough gas to heat more than 1.4 million homes, and if Burnham gets moving, the gas could start flowing this winter, cutting our reliance on imports.
Incredibly, the Tories shut our largest gas storage facility, Rough, in 2017. Owner Centrica wants a decision and framework to unlock it. Miliband did nothing. Now Burnham is dithering again.
Britain has far lower storage capacity than its European neighbours. Around five to seven days of average winter demand, falling to just two to four days in an extreme cold snap. This leaves us exposed to sudden shortages and price spikes. That’s unforgivable.
Britain is already paying a heavy price for our energy nightmare, as our sky-high bills makes British industry completely uncompetitive, driving the de-industrialisation that Burnham has pledged to reverse. Climate change is a real concern but keeping the lights on and affordable power flowing must be the immediate priority. Both for Britons and for Burnham.
The Iran war has been threatening an oil shock bigger than the 1970s, which will in turn drive up inflation. Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries will make everything tighter. The world’s largest independent energy trader Vitol Energy has warned of oil hitting $200 a barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
A cold winter, disrupted supplies and soaring prices would be bad enough. Actual blackouts would be worse. They could disrupt hospitals, transport, communications and businesses, leaving the elderly and vulnerable shivering in their homes. The prospect of power cuts and rationing should terrify every household in Britain. This should terrify Burnham most of all. If the lights go out, his political future could look very black indeed.
Why Britain’s electricity system is under pressure
The warning signs have become difficult to ignore. Reports published in mid-October described serious operational challenges, including expensive interventions to balance the electricity network, constraints on moving renewable power from Scotland to demand centres further south, and requests for emergency electricity support from France.
On one day, the cost of balancing the grid reached £47.9 million, according to reporting by The Guardian. Wind generation was curtailed in areas where electricity could not be transported efficiently, while gas-fired power stations were brought online elsewhere to meet demand. These costs can ultimately feed through into consumer bills. <Cite refs={[“turn612328news27″,”turn612328news25”]}/>
The underlying problem is not simply that Britain is generating too little electricity. It is also about where power is produced, whether transmission infrastructure can carry it to where it is needed, and whether sufficient flexible generation and storage are available when demand rises.
A country can have substantial installed generating capacity and still experience difficult periods if the weather changes, a power station becomes unavailable or network bottlenecks prevent electricity from reaching the right places.
That distinction is particularly important during winter, when households use more energy for heating and lighting. Cold weather can increase demand, while calm conditions can reduce output from wind farms. The combination requires careful planning and reliable backup arrangements.
The controversy surrounding Burnham’s energy plans
Burnham’s proposed Great British Grid initiative has become part of the political argument about how to improve Britain’s energy infrastructure.
The proposal involves a government-backed body intended to help coordinate investment in the electricity network. Supporters argue that a more coordinated approach could speed up infrastructure development, reduce bottlenecks and make it easier to connect new generation projects. Critics question whether creating another public body will solve the underlying problems quickly enough or add another layer of bureaucracy. <Cite refs={[“turn612328search10″,”turn612328news24”]}/>
The political challenge is that new transmission lines, substations and other infrastructure cannot be built overnight. Planning decisions, investment approvals, construction schedules and local objections can all affect delivery.
Even if the proposed initiative eventually improves the network, it cannot be assumed that it will immediately eliminate the difficulties seen this autumn.
The government therefore faces two separate tasks: managing the existing system safely through the coming winter and ensuring that long-term infrastructure improvements arrive quickly enough to meet future demand.
Critics argue that the recent problems demonstrate why ministers should not make energy policy promises without clear delivery plans. Supporters of reform counter that years of underinvestment and delays make a coordinated national approach necessary.
Neither argument removes the immediate responsibility to keep the electricity system secure.
What the official winter forecast actually says
The National Energy System Operator, known as NESO, is responsible for assessing electricity supply and demand and coordinating the operation of Great Britain’s electricity system.
Its early outlook for winter 2026–27 forecasts a 5.5 GW de-rated capacity margin, equivalent to 8.8% of expected peak demand during an average cold spell. The operator describes the overall outlook as adequate, while warning that some periods—particularly during January—could be more finely balanced. <Cite refs={[“turn612328search0″,”turn612328search28”]}/>
This is reassuring, but it is not a guarantee that every part of the system will operate without difficulty. Forecasts rely on assumptions about weather, electricity demand, power-station availability, renewable generation and imports from neighbouring countries.
NESO’s modelling considers thousands of possible scenarios. Its assessment also recognises that operators may need to use established tools to balance the system during tighter periods.
Those tools can include calling on available generation, managing demand and using interconnectors that link Britain’s electricity network with other countries. Such measures are part of normal system management and do not automatically mean households will experience power cuts.
The distinction matters because alarming claims about imminent nationwide blackouts can cause unnecessary fear. The evidence points to genuine challenges requiring close monitoring, but the published forecast does not say that Britain is expected to run out of electricity this winter.
Could the problems become more serious during a cold snap?
A prolonged period of freezing temperatures would test the system more severely than mild weather. Demand would rise as homes and businesses used more energy, while some forms of renewable generation could produce less electricity under unfavourable conditions.
The grid operator must therefore consider not only how much electricity Britain can generate in total, but also how reliably that electricity can be delivered during periods of high demand.
Gas-fired power stations remain an important source of flexibility. Batteries can respond quickly to short-term fluctuations, while electricity interconnectors allow Britain to import power when supplies are available in neighbouring markets.
However, imports cannot be treated as an unlimited safety net. If several European countries experience cold weather at the same time, their own electricity demand may rise, potentially reducing the amount of power available for export.
The recent requests for support from France have highlighted the importance of planning for such conditions. They also underline why domestic infrastructure, flexible generation and storage remain important even as renewable capacity expands.
At present, these risks justify preparation and vigilance rather than a prediction that widespread blackouts will occur.
What would a blackout mean for households?
A major electricity outage would affect far more than household lighting. Heating systems, public transport, telecommunications, payment systems and some essential services depend on reliable power.
People who rely on electrically powered medical equipment could face particular difficulties, while businesses might lose income if they were unable to operate. During freezing weather, even a temporary interruption could become uncomfortable or dangerous for vulnerable people.
That is why energy security is not merely an argument about political targets or electricity prices. It is a practical question about whether critical infrastructure can withstand difficult conditions and recover quickly if something goes wrong.
Households can take sensible precautions without assuming that an outage is inevitable. Keeping torches, charged power banks and essential supplies available is useful for ordinary emergencies, including local faults and severe weather. People who depend on electrically powered medical equipment should follow advice from their healthcare providers and relevant electricity network operator.
The responsibility for maintaining national energy security, however, rests with the institutions and companies that plan, generate, transmit and regulate electricity. Individual households cannot compensate for weaknesses in the wider system.
Energy bills add another layer of pressure
The reliability debate is unfolding alongside concerns about affordability. Global energy-market volatility has kept pressure on prices, while the cost of balancing Britain’s electricity network has risen sharply.
On 16 October, Ofgem opened a consultation on the possible use of its Market Stabilisation Charge, a mechanism intended to protect energy suppliers from severe wholesale-price fluctuations. The move reflects concerns about market instability ahead of winter, although a consultation is not itself evidence that households will face blackouts. <Cite refs={[“turn612328news23″,”turn612328news24”]}/>
Burnham’s government has also pursued measures intended to ease the cost of living. In July, it announced that VAT on domestic electricity bills would fall from 5% to zero from October, with an estimated annual saving of around £45 for a typical household. <Cite refs={[“turn612328news29″,”turn612328search8”]}/>
That measure may provide some relief, but it cannot solve structural problems with transmission capacity, generating flexibility or global wholesale prices.
Ministers will need to explain how their short-term cost-of-living measures fit alongside longer-term investment in reliable infrastructure. Households want energy that is affordable, but they also expect it to be available whenever they need it.
The political test facing Burnham
The recent grid difficulties have created a difficult test for the government. Ministers must respond to genuine operational concerns without exaggerating the risk, while also explaining how proposed reforms will improve the system over time.
Burnham’s critics will argue that the government should be judged on whether it can ensure reliable supplies and avoid passing unnecessary costs to consumers. Supporters of the Great British Grid proposal will argue that the present bottlenecks demonstrate the need for better coordination and faster infrastructure development.
The strongest evidence will come from delivery: whether transmission projects progress, whether balancing costs can be reduced, whether sufficient flexible capacity is available and whether the electricity system remains reliable during periods of high demand.
It would be misleading to attribute every current grid problem directly to Burnham or to claim that his policies alone have created the risks. Britain’s electricity system has been shaped by decades of investment decisions, market reforms, changes in generation and delays to infrastructure.
Nevertheless, the government is now responsible for responding to the problems it inherits and for demonstrating that its plans can improve resilience.
A winter that demands preparation, not panic
Britain faces real challenges in managing a changing electricity system. Transmission bottlenecks, high balancing costs, volatile energy markets and dependence on weather-sensitive generation all deserve serious attention.
But the official winter outlook remains more reassuring than the most dramatic political headlines suggest. NESO expects Great Britain to have enough electricity to meet demand across winter 2026–27, while acknowledging that tighter periods may require active management.
The priority should be to strengthen the system, reduce avoidable costs and ensure that contingency arrangements work when conditions become difficult.
For Burnham, the challenge is to turn promises about energy reform into measurable improvements without giving households false reassurance or unnecessary alarm. For the public, the important questions are whether the grid is adequately prepared, whether investment is arriving quickly enough and whether ministers can explain the risks honestly.
The prospect of winter power cuts should never be dismissed casually. But neither should the public be told to expect darkness when the official assessment does not support that conclusion. Britain needs clear information, practical preparation and a reliable electricity system—not political panic.