The PM’s recent rollcall of include stupidly putting social security above the defence of the realm, stumbling into the Manchester City scandal, and being publicly upbraided by MI5 for claiming Russia influenced the Brexit referendum result. But Burnham’s gaffes mask the fact that his broader strategy is working rather nicely right now. It could put him in the box seat if he calls a snap election, as many expect.

Burnham had a big win last week when Labour retained Keir Starmer‘s former parliamentary seat in the St Pancras and Holborn by-election. Frankly, Labour doesn’t need another backbench MP. It has 403 and most are more trouble than they’re worth. But it really didn’t want Green Party leader Zack Polanski rocking up at Westminster on the back of a spectacular victory. That would have been a slap in the face for Burnham and put a stop to his honeymoon.

The Greens hoovered up support from Lefties furious over Keir Starmer’s Gaza policy, but now they’re the ones tearing themselves apart. Hard-left activists, the sort who flocked to Labour under Jeremy Corbyn, brought their anti-Israel obsessions with them, plunging the Greens into an existential crisis.

Their stance that “Zionism is racism” effectively denies Israel’s right to exist, while exposing Polanski’s weakness in failing to stand up to it. The Greens are descending into civil war as the old guard struggles to save the party from the Corbynites, anti-semites and Islamists. Zack Polanski is on resignation watch. It’s an ugly spectacle, but a golden opportunity for Burnham.

Until recently, there was a growing assumption that two-party politics was dead and the next government could only be formed through some kind of alliance. That raised the terrifying prospect of a Labour-Green-Lib Dem coalition dragging Britain even further towards the left, while shutting out the right.

Burnham has every reason to want that prospect buried, and he’s taking action. Labour councils who share power with the Greens have been told to terminate agreements unless they condemn the “Zionism is racism” policy. Why share when there’s a chance you can grab it all for yourself?

Burnham can now position himself as the undisputed champion of the left, picking up Green cast-offs while raiding the dwindling ranks of disillusioned Lib Dem voters.

The PM is blowing all the Leftie dog whistles. Closer alignment with the EU, floating another Brexit referendum, rail and water nationalisation, more power for the unions and a preference for social security spending over defence. It may sound like madness to many of us, but left-wing voters have been crying out for this ever since Margaret Thatcher burst their bubble. Burnham understands his base and is giving it what they want.

And there’s another casualty: Angela Rayner. She’s the darling of Labour’s left, keeping the flame of traditional, union-friendly, working-class politics burning under Starmer. Sadly for Red Ange, Burnham is now trampling all over her territory. No wonder she’s resorted to attacking Shabana Mahmood.

It also helps that Burnham is a man, and a beery, blokey man to boot. Labour can now leave the whole lady boss thing to the Tories, and stay in their traditional comfort zone.

None of this guarantees Burnham an election victory. But Labour is edging it in the polls, the Greens are self-combusting and a Tory-Reform alliance looks off the cards, as Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage publicly slug it out.

If two-party politics really is back, Burnham could be the biggest beneficiary. He’s on course to own the entire left, while the right tear themselves in two. That snap election must look tempting.

Andy Burnham Just Crushed His Biggest Rival – Even Angela Rayner Can’t Touch Him Now

Andy Burnham is emerging as one of the most powerful figures in British politics, with Labour enjoying a renewed boost in opinion polls and the Prime Minister gaining ground against his principal political opponents. His growing popularity has also intensified speculation about the balance of power within Labour itself, particularly the position of Angela Rayner, who remains an influential voice on the party’s left.

The latest political developments suggest that Burnham has found an opportunity to reshape Labour’s fortunes. Following a period of uncertainty and internal disagreement, the party has begun to recover some of the public support it lost during the previous political era. For Burnham, the challenge is to turn that improvement into lasting electoral success rather than a temporary honeymoon.

A recent Opinium poll, conducted between September 30 and October 2, put Labour on 30 per cent, ahead of Reform UK on 25 per cent and the Conservatives on 17 per cent. The same survey gave Burnham a net approval rating of plus eight, making him the only political leader in the poll with a positive score. He also led Kemi Badenoch by 21 points when respondents were asked who would make the best prime minister.

Those figures provide a significant political boost. But the suggestion that Burnham has permanently crushed every rival, or that Rayner has become irrelevant, would go further than the available evidence supports.

A New Political Direction for Labour

Burnham’s rise represents a change in tone as well as leadership. After years of arguments about economic growth, public services and the party’s relationship with its traditional supporters, he has sought to present Labour as a government with a clearer purpose.

His political appeal rests partly on his reputation as a politician who understands the pressures facing working-class communities. During his nine years as Greater Manchester mayor, he developed a public profile around transport, regional investment, devolution and the cost of living.

That background has helped him distinguish himself from politicians whose careers have been dominated by Westminster. Burnham has repeatedly argued that national government needs to understand the everyday experiences of people outside London, including the difficulties of accessing affordable housing, reliable transport and essential public services.

As prime minister, he has promised a more ambitious approach to devolution, giving local and regional authorities greater influence over decisions affecting their communities. He has also announced measures intended to ease household costs, including plans to remove VAT from domestic electricity bills.

These policies give Burnham a clear political narrative: a government that intends to change how Britain is run while addressing the economic pressures experienced by ordinary families. Whether the policies deliver the promised results will determine how durable that narrative becomes.

Angela Rayner Faces a Different Political Landscape

Angela Rayner remains an important figure within Labour. Her background, trade union connections and longstanding support among sections of the party give her a political identity distinct from Burnham’s.

Rayner has traditionally been associated with Labour’s more left-wing and union-friendly traditions. She has also built a reputation for direct communication and an ability to connect with voters who feel that political institutions are distant from their lives.

However, Burnham’s rise creates a more complicated environment for her. The Prime Minister is occupying much of the political territory that Rayner has historically sought to defend: working-class representation, regional inequality, public services and the argument that economic policy should deliver tangible benefits for ordinary households.

If Burnham can successfully combine those themes with a credible programme for economic growth and effective government, he could reduce the space available for competing voices within Labour.

That does not necessarily mean Rayner has been defeated. Political influence is not determined by opinion polls alone. It also depends on relationships within the parliamentary party, support among members, trade union backing and the ability to shape government policy.

Rayner has been appointed to a senior housing role in Burnham’s Cabinet, giving her responsibility for an area central to Labour’s political promises. Her influence will therefore depend partly on whether she can turn commitments on housebuilding, renters’ rights and housing affordability into visible improvements.

For Burnham, the task is to manage this relationship carefully. A government that sidelines prominent figures without good reason risks creating internal divisions. One that gives them meaningful responsibilities can benefit from their experience while maintaining a clear direction from Downing Street.

The Polling Numbers Offer Burnham a Major Advantage

The latest polling provides one of the clearest explanations for the renewed confidence surrounding Burnham.

In the Opinium survey, Labour’s 30 per cent voting intention represented its strongest result with that pollster since November 2024. Reform UK remained a significant challenger on 25 per cent, while the Conservatives stood at 17 per cent. The Greens and Liberal Democrats were further behind, on 11 and nine per cent respectively.

These figures suggest that Labour has regained some momentum. They also indicate that Burnham may be better positioned than his predecessors to compete for voters who are dissatisfied with the established parties but remain unconvinced by Reform UK.

The Conservative position presents another opportunity. With the party struggling to establish itself as the dominant alternative to Labour, Burnham can attempt to frame the next election around a choice between his government’s programme and what he describes as the shortcomings of previous administrations.

Nevertheless, the polling picture is not entirely settled. Ipsos research published on October 16 found that 35 per cent of respondents viewed the Conservatives as the main opposition to Labour, compared with 32 per cent who selected Reform UK. That marked a change from earlier in the year, when Reform had enjoyed a substantial advantage on the same measure.

The findings underline how quickly political fortunes can change. Burnham has gained ground, but the opposition parties are also competing to define their own identities and convince voters that they are ready to govern.

The Rivalry on the Right Could Help Labour

One potential advantage for Burnham is the fragmentation of the political right.

Reform UK has attempted to position itself as the principal alternative to Labour, campaigning on immigration, national identity, taxation and dissatisfaction with the political establishment. Nigel Farage continues to be a prominent figure, but his party faces the challenge of converting protest support into a credible programme capable of winning a general election.

The Conservatives, meanwhile, are attempting to rebuild their standing under Kemi Badenoch. Their task is to persuade voters that they can offer a serious alternative to both Labour and Reform without appearing to follow Farage’s agenda.

If these parties continue competing for similar voters, Labour could benefit from a divided opposition. Under Britain’s electoral system, a party can win a substantial parliamentary majority without securing an absolute majority of the national vote, depending on how support is distributed across constituencies.

That possibility may encourage speculation about an early election. However, polling improvements do not automatically mean a prime minister will call one. Election timing depends on political calculations, parliamentary circumstances and the risks of going to the country before promised policies have produced measurable results.

Burnham would need to decide whether an early contest offered a realistic opportunity to secure a stronger mandate or whether waiting would give his government more time to demonstrate its achievements.

Immigration and the Cost of Living Remain Serious Tests

Despite Labour’s improving poll numbers, Burnham faces challenges that could quickly erode his advantage.

Immigration remains a major source of public concern. Voters want to know whether the government can prevent dangerous Channel crossings, disrupt smuggling networks and enforce decisions against people who have no lawful right to remain in Britain.

At the same time, asylum claims must be processed fairly, and people who qualify for international protection must be treated in accordance with the law. The government must demonstrate that its approach can combine effective enforcement with lawful procedures and practical cooperation from other countries.

The economy presents an equally significant test. Many households continue to worry about housing costs, energy bills, wages and the quality of public services. A rise in Labour’s polling support will be difficult to sustain if people see little improvement in their personal circumstances.

Burnham has made regional inequality and public-service reform central to his political message. Yet delivering on those commitments will require funding, administrative capacity and decisions that may create tensions within his own party.

His promise of a different political model will ultimately be judged by results rather than speeches. If household costs remain high and public services fail to improve, opponents will argue that Labour has changed its leadership without changing the country’s underlying problems.

Can Burnham Keep Control of Labour?

The suggestion that Angela Rayner can no longer challenge Burnham reflects the dramatic language surrounding political leadership. In reality, the relationship between a prime minister and senior Cabinet colleagues is more complicated than a contest with one clear winner.

Burnham currently enjoys an advantage because he controls the government’s agenda and has benefited from encouraging polling. Rayner retains her own political experience and constituency within Labour. Their interests may overlap on social policy while diverging over specific decisions on spending, employment and the direction of the economy.

The key question is whether Burnham can maintain unity while making difficult choices. A prime minister who appears too accommodating may struggle to convince voters that he is in control. One who centralises power excessively could provoke resistance from colleagues whose support is essential to governing effectively.

Rayner’s performance in government will also matter. If she can demonstrate progress on housing and social policy, she may strengthen her standing within Labour. If the department struggles to deliver, critics could use that as evidence that the government’s wider promises are unrealistic.

Neither outcome is predetermined. Political authority is strengthened through successful decisions, not simply by the weakness of a rival.

A Strong Position, but No Guaranteed Victory

Andy Burnham has gained an important political advantage. Labour’s improved polling position, his comparatively positive approval ratings and his ability to occupy ground associated with traditional Labour voters have given him an opportunity to establish himself as a formidable prime minister.

Angela Rayner remains an influential member of his government, but Burnham’s leadership means that she must operate within a political landscape shaped increasingly by his priorities. Whether that reduces her long-term influence will depend on policy outcomes, internal party relationships and the next stages of Labour’s political programme.

The opposition also has reasons to worry. If Labour can maintain its polling lead while Reform and the Conservatives compete for political space, Burnham may enter the next election with a stronger position than many expected.

But the decisive test is still ahead. Britain’s economic pressures, immigration debate and public-service challenges will not disappear because a leader has enjoyed a successful conference or a favourable poll.

Burnham has momentum, and that momentum could reshape Labour politics. Turning it into a lasting political victory will require something much harder: delivering the changes voters have been promised, maintaining party unity and proving that a renewed Labour government can improve life across the country.

For now, the headline claim that Burnham has crushed his rivals may be premature. What is clear is that he has strengthened his position—and that both Rayner and the opposition parties will have to respond to a prime minister who is beginning to look considerably more secure than his critics might have hoped.