The by-election was called after the death of outspoken former councillor Mike Stoddart.

GB News has dissected the result and what it could mean for the major parties going forward into the Welsh Parliament election.

Milford Hakin (Pembrokeshire)

This week’s sole council by-election was held after the death of local journalist turned Councillor, Mike Stoddart.

The by-election made headlines after the Welsh Labour candidate, Nicola Harteveld, withdrew from the contest after her teenage son was verbally abused by two strangers.

Reform UK’s Scott Thorley won the by-election in the ward, with 179 votes, with Welsh Conservative Party Kelvin Taylor in second place on 144 votes.

Independent candidate Lee James Bridges came in third in 106 with Samuel Booth from the Wales Green Party in fourth on 85 votes.

Reform UK’s Scott Thorley came out on top

 | REFORM UK

Samuel Warden from the Welsh Liberal Democrats was in fifth on 57 votes, with Ms Harteveld still attracting 27 votes for Welsh Labour despite her suspending all campaigning. Independent Derrick Abbott came in last on 11 votes.

A total of 661 votes were cast, with the turnout at 32.7 per cent.

Plaid Cymru did not field a candidate.

It was not the first time Mr Thorley had stood as a candidate for Nigel Farage’s party in Pembrokeshire.

Mr Thorley previously stood in the Prendergast Haverfordwest ward, which was won by Independent Alun Wills, with the Reform candidate finishing in fourth.

Speaking after his victory, Mr Thorley told The Tenby Observer: “It was a massive honour to win last night and I’m more than aware I’ve got some massive shoes to fill in Hakin.

“I’ve already started work this morning and have responded to four residents first thing. People in Hakin just want the basics done right and someone they can reach out with any issues they have; I will be that person.

Reform UK’s candidate in the Caerphilly by-election, Llyr Powell, said: “Voters want change, and Reform UK is ready to deliver it. Vote Reform. Get Reform.

The bulk of Pembrokeshire County Council is made up of independent councillors, with 34 out of the 60 elected not affiliated to any party.

Out of the 34, 19 sit together as the “Independent Group”.

There are 11 Welsh Conservative councillors, nine from Welsh Labour, three from Plaid Cymru and two Liberal Democrats.

Mr Thorley has become the first Reform UK councillor on the ward.

During the 2024 general election, the Mid and South Pembrokeshire seat was won by Labour’s Henry Tufnell, who beat the former Conservative minister Stephen Crabb with a majority of 1,878

SHOCK WIN FOR REFORM UK: Is This the Beginning of a Political Storm for Labour and the Conservatives?

Reform UK has secured a notable local electoral breakthrough in Wales, adding to the political pressure facing Britain’s established parties and raising fresh questions about the changing balance of power ahead of future elections. The victory in the Hakin ward of Pembrokeshire County Council saw Reform candidate Scott Thorley become the party’s first councillor on the authority, giving Nigel Farage’s party a foothold in an area where independent representatives have traditionally played a major role.

The result may have involved a single council seat, but its political significance extends beyond the immediate contest. Reform has been seeking to establish a stronger presence across Britain, challenging Labour and the Conservatives in communities where voters have become increasingly willing to reconsider their traditional loyalties.

For Labour, the Conservatives and other parties, the question is whether such local victories reflect a lasting shift in voter behaviour or are the product of particular circumstances. The answer will depend on future results, turnout and whether Reform can build a durable organisation capable of competing across a wider range of constituencies.

Reform Breaks New Ground in Pembrokeshire

The Hakin by-election represented an important milestone for Reform UK in Pembrokeshire. Scott Thorley won the contest with 179 votes, ahead of Welsh Conservative candidate Kelvin Taylor, who received 144. Independent candidate Lee James Bridges finished third with 106 votes, while the Wales Green Party’s Samuel Booth received 85.

The Welsh Labour candidate, Nicola Harteveld, received 27 votes after suspending her campaigning following an incident in which her teenage son was reportedly verbally abused by two strangers. The by-election recorded 661 votes, with turnout at 32.7 per cent.

These figures provide important context for understanding the result. Reform won the seat, but the contest also involved a relatively low turnout and several competing candidates. It should therefore be considered a local electoral development rather than conclusive evidence of a nationwide political realignment.

Nevertheless, winning a first council seat in an authority where Reform previously had no representation gives the party an opportunity to develop its local profile.

Thorley said after his victory that residents wanted basic services delivered properly and someone they could contact when problems arose. His comments highlighted an important feature of local elections: national political arguments can attract attention, but voters also want councillors who understand neighbourhood concerns and respond to practical issues.

For Reform, the immediate task is to turn that opportunity into visible local representation.

Why Nigel Farage Will Be Watching Closely

Nigel Farage has built Reform UK’s national identity around the argument that Britain’s established parties have failed to address concerns about immigration, public spending, economic security and political accountability.

The party has attempted to attract voters who believe that Labour and the Conservatives have become too similar on important issues. Its supporters often see Reform as an alternative capable of challenging established political assumptions and forcing difficult questions onto the national agenda.

Local victories can reinforce this message. Each elected councillor provides an opportunity to demonstrate that the party can move beyond national campaigning and represent residents in local government.

However, winning a council seat also creates responsibilities. Councillors must respond to residents, understand council procedures, scrutinise spending and work within the powers available to their authority. A national political message cannot replace the practical work of representing a local community.

The Hakin result therefore presents both an opportunity and a test. Reform can use the victory to build relationships with residents, but its longer-term credibility will depend partly on whether its representative can demonstrate tangible results.

Farage’s wider challenge is to ensure that the party’s growing visibility is matched by effective local organisation and a consistent record of public service.

Labour Faces Questions About Its Support

The result also comes amid wider competition for voters who have become dissatisfied with the established parties.

Labour faces pressure to show that its policies are improving living standards, strengthening public services and responding to concerns about immigration and economic insecurity. Even where a council by-election is not a direct judgement on the national government, a poor result can contribute to a wider debate about whether the party is maintaining public confidence.

For many voters, household finances remain central to political decision-making. Housing costs, energy bills, food prices and wages shape people’s perceptions of the economy. Government announcements may have limited political impact if households do not experience improvements in their daily lives.

Public services are equally important. Residents want local facilities maintained, council services delivered reliably and public money used effectively. In smaller communities, concerns about transport, roads, planning and local amenities can influence voting decisions alongside national issues.

Labour must therefore contend with two related challenges: demonstrating progress on its national programme and maintaining strong connections with communities whose priorities may differ significantly from those of voters in major cities.

The Hakin result alone cannot establish the scale of Labour’s difficulties. But it illustrates the competitive environment in which the party must defend its support.

The Conservatives Are Under Pressure Too

Reform’s advance also creates difficulties for the Conservative Party.

Some voters who previously supported the Conservatives have moved towards Reform because they want a tougher approach to immigration, a different economic direction or a more confrontational challenge to Westminster’s political establishment.

Other Conservative supporters may be reluctant to back Reform because they question its policies, experience or ability to govern. This leaves the Conservatives with the task of defining their own political identity while responding to a competitor that seeks to attract many of the same voters.

The Hakin result demonstrates that Reform can compete directly with the Conservatives in a local contest. Thorley’s 179 votes placed him ahead of the Conservative candidate’s 144, although the relatively small number of votes involved means that the result should not be treated as a direct measure of national support.

For Conservative campaigners, the challenge is to persuade voters that the party offers a credible alternative without simply copying Reform’s language or policies.

The relationship between the two parties may become increasingly important in future elections. Where they compete against each other, their combined vote may be divided. Where they appeal to different groups of voters, both may retain distinct opportunities.

Whether cooperation or continued competition proves more attractive to their supporters will depend on local circumstances and the political decisions made by both parties.

Wales Could Become an Important Electoral Battleground

The result is particularly relevant because Reform is seeking to expand its presence in Wales as well as England.

Welsh politics has its own dynamics, including debates over public services, the economy, rural communities, devolution and the performance of the Welsh Government. Parties campaigning in Wales must address these issues rather than relying exclusively on political messages developed for Westminster.

Reform’s success in Hakin gives the party a representative on Pembrokeshire County Council for the first time. It also provides a local platform from which the party can seek to build support ahead of further contests.

The wider political landscape in Pembrokeshire is distinctive. Independent councillors make up a substantial proportion of the county council, meaning that local politics cannot be understood solely through the competition between national parties. The Hakin contest also featured Conservative, Labour, Green and independent candidates, each appealing to a different section of the electorate.

Reform will need to establish whether its message resonates in other Welsh communities with different economic conditions and political traditions.

A successful campaign in one ward does not guarantee similar results elsewhere. However, establishing an initial foothold can help a party recruit volunteers, develop local knowledge and build recognition among voters who may previously have had little contact with it.

Local Issues Still Matter

National headlines often frame by-election results as victories or defeats for party leaders. Yet local contests can be shaped by circumstances that have little to do with the national political debate.

The character of a candidate, their reputation in the community and their willingness to engage with residents can all influence the outcome. Turnout, the number of candidates and the strength of local campaigning also matter.

In Hakin, the circumstances surrounding the Labour candidate’s decision to suspend campaigning added another dimension to the contest. It would be inappropriate to assume that this alone determined the outcome, but it forms part of the context in which the result occurred.

The turnout of 32.7 per cent is another reason to interpret the result carefully. The votes cast represent those who participated in this particular election, not the entire population of the ward.

These qualifications do not diminish the fact that Reform won the seat. They help explain why the result should be assessed on its own terms rather than treated as a definitive verdict on the political mood across Britain.

For all parties, the lesson is that local elections require attention to both national concerns and the specific priorities of the people being asked to vote.

Can Reform Turn One Victory Into a Wider Movement?

The next challenge for Reform is to demonstrate that the Hakin victory can form part of a broader pattern of electoral growth.

A party seeking to expand its representation needs more than a recognisable leader and a clear national message. It also requires capable candidates, functioning local branches, consistent communication and a willingness to engage with the details of council business.

Reform must show that its councillors can deliver practical representation and that its policies address the concerns of different communities. The party will also face questions about how it intends to fund its proposals, manage public services and balance national priorities with local responsibilities.

For Labour and the Conservatives, the task is to respond to voter concerns without assuming that every Reform supporter has the same motivations. Some may prioritise immigration, others economic policy, and others dissatisfaction with the political establishment or their local council.

Understanding those differences is essential for any party seeking to recover support.

Future election results will provide a clearer picture of whether Reform’s local gains are becoming a sustained trend. A sequence of victories across different regions would offer stronger evidence of wider electoral change than any single by-election.

A Warning Sign, but Not a Final Verdict

Reform UK’s victory in Hakin is a meaningful development for a party seeking to expand its local representation. Scott Thorley’s election gives Reform its first councillor on Pembrokeshire County Council and provides Nigel Farage’s party with an opportunity to establish a stronger presence in the area.

For Labour, the Conservatives and other parties, the result highlights the importance of maintaining local connections and responding to the concerns that influence voters’ decisions. It also demonstrates that national party loyalties cannot always be relied upon to determine the outcome of a local contest.

But the result should not be exaggerated. A single council by-election, with 661 votes cast and turnout of 32.7 per cent, cannot establish the likely outcome of a future general election or prove that one party is experiencing a nationwide collapse.

The more important question is what happens next. Can Reform build on its initial foothold in Pembrokeshire? Will its elected representative establish a record of effective local service? And how will Labour and the Conservatives respond as competition for voters continues?

Those questions will be answered through future campaigning, policy decisions and election results.

For now, the Hakin contest offers a clear example of Britain’s changing local political landscape. Reform has gained a seat, the Conservatives have been pushed into second place, and Labour’s candidate received a small share of the vote in unusual circumstances. The result gives all three parties reasons to examine their local strategies.

Whether it marks the beginning of a much larger political storm remains uncertain. What is clear is that the competition for voters is evolving, and the established parties cannot assume that previous loyalties will automatically endure.