Reform UK are on course to win fewer seats than both Labour and the Tories at the next general election, a new poll suggests.
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A YouGov study found that Nigel Farage ’s party would end up with 123 MPs if an election were held now, which is well down on the 311 forecast from a similar poll just one year ago.In a further blow to Reform, the mega poll also shows Reform MPs Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman would both be booted out the Commons – losing their seats to their former party.
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The poll shows Labour would be the largest party on 241 seats, with the Tories second on 130. It represents a major turnaround for the Labour party, with YouGov predicting under Keir Starmer ’s they’d win just 144 seats.
The MRP poll surveyed 17,000 people to produce a seat-by-seat breakdown, and suggests the UK is heading for its first hung parliament since the Tory Lib Dem coalition of 2010.
The Lib Dems are forecast to stay on 71 MPs, meaning Sir Ed Davey could be key to any future government.
After losing support in recent months, the Greens are only forecast to win eight seats, while the SNP are expected to jump from eight to 40 MPs.
The Reform collapse comes after a series of scandals, with its annual conference in Birmingham overshadowed by allegations about off-the-books polling after undercover footage of Mr Farage and colleagues was broadcast by Channel 4.
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Two of Mr Farage’s key aides – Dan Jukes and James Orr – were suspended after the allegations came to light, and the Met Police has since announced it has launched a criminal investigation. I
Polling earlier this month shows Mr Farage’s latest unpopularity level is the highest recorded for him in 10 years.
It shows 69% of voters have an unfavourable opinion of him – including 57% who say they see him in a very unfavourable way. Just 24% hold a positive opinion of him, the polling shows.
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This comes hot on the heels of another YouGov poll which found 73% of voters believe Mr Farage is sleazy. The latest figures show Mr Farage’s net favourability rating of -45 is the same as Mr Starmer’s just before he stepped down.
Blow for Nigel Farage as Poll Suggests Reform UK Could Win Fewer Seats Than Labour and the Conservatives at Next Election
Nigel Farage has been dealt a fresh challenge after new election modelling suggested that Reform UK could lose substantial ground in a future general election, with tactical voting potentially leaving the party behind both Labour and the Conservatives in the race for parliamentary seats.
The findings highlight the growing uncertainty surrounding Britain’s political landscape. Although Reform UK has established itself as a major challenger to the traditional parties, recent projections suggest that its support could translate into fewer seats than earlier forecasts indicated.
The latest modelling from More in Common, published in September 2026, projected Labour to emerge as the largest party with 250 seats, followed by Reform UK with 147 and the Conservatives with 125. However, a separate scenario examining tactical voting suggested that Reform’s position could deteriorate further if voters coordinated their choices to prevent the party from winning in closely contested constituencies.
Under that scenario, Labour could reach 319 seats, while Reform UK would fall to 62. The Conservatives would also gain seats compared with the central projection. The figures are estimates rather than predictions of a definite election result, but they demonstrate how the UK’s electoral system can produce very different outcomes depending on how votes are distributed between competing parties.
For Farage, the findings raise questions about whether Reform can convert its national support into a sufficiently large parliamentary presence to fulfil its ambitions.
A changing picture for Reform UK
Reform UK has built its political appeal around opposition to the established parties, tougher immigration controls, lower taxes and a promise to change how Britain is governed.
Farage has argued that millions of voters are frustrated with successive Conservative and Labour administrations and want a political alternative that challenges Westminster’s established assumptions. That message has helped Reform attract attention among voters concerned about immigration, living costs, public services and national identity.
Earlier election models suggested that Reform could make dramatic gains if its support continued to rise. More in Common’s July 2026 projection, for example, placed the party on 293 seats, close to the territory associated with a parliamentary majority.
Its September model offered a substantially different picture. Reform’s projected total fell to 147 seats, while Labour’s recovered to 250 and the Conservatives rose to 125.
The change illustrates how quickly political projections can move when public opinion shifts. It also demonstrates that a party’s national vote share does not automatically determine how many constituencies it wins.
In the September model, Reform was projected to receive 24 per cent of the vote, compared with Labour on 26 per cent and the Conservatives on 22 per cent. Despite those relatively close figures, the estimated seat totals varied significantly because of the geographical distribution of support.
These numbers do not establish what would happen at the next election. They provide a snapshot of how the political landscape might look if the polling assumptions used by the researchers translated into votes.
Nevertheless, the change is significant for a party that has frequently presented itself as the main vehicle for voters seeking to punish the established political class.
Why tactical voting could change everything
Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system awards each constituency to the candidate who receives the most votes. A party can therefore win a substantial national share of the vote but still struggle to secure seats if its support is spread inefficiently across the country.
The reverse is also possible. A party with a smaller national vote share can perform strongly if its supporters are concentrated in constituencies where it can finish first.
Tactical voting adds another layer of uncertainty. Instead of voting for their preferred party, some voters may support the candidate they believe has the strongest chance of defeating a party they oppose.
For example, a Labour supporter in a closely contested constituency might vote Conservative if polling suggests that the Conservative candidate is the main challenger to Reform. A Conservative supporter could make the opposite decision in another constituency if Labour is best placed to defeat Reform there.
Such behaviour does not require voters to change their underlying political preferences. They may simply decide that preventing a particular candidate from winning is more important than supporting their first choice.
Research published in September by the Guardian, based on election modelling, examined how higher levels of tactical voting could affect the distribution of seats. Under the scenario described, Reform’s projected total fell to 62 seats, while Labour rose to 319. The Conservatives were projected to gain 46 seats that would otherwise have gone to Reform and Labour would gain 43.
The scenario is not a guarantee that voters will behave in this way. Tactical voting is difficult to measure in advance, and supporters may be unwilling to abandon their preferred party even when a different candidate appears better placed to win.
Still, the analysis illustrates the potential consequences of coordination between voters who have different political priorities but share opposition to Reform.
Labour’s recovery under Andy Burnham
The projections also point to a substantial change in Labour’s position under Prime Minister Andy Burnham.
More in Common’s September model placed Labour 140 seats higher than its July projection, reflecting an improvement in its estimated support across several regions.
The recovery was particularly noticeable in parts of northern England and Wales, where Labour had faced the prospect of losing constituencies to Reform. The model suggested that Labour could regain support in communities where voters had become disillusioned with the party.
For Burnham, the figures provide a possible indication that Labour could rebuild some of its electoral coalition after a difficult period. However, a projected improvement does not mean the government has resolved the underlying problems facing the country.
Voters will continue to judge Labour on economic growth, public services, immigration, housing and living standards. If people believe that their circumstances are deteriorating, the party could struggle to sustain its recovery.
The model also projected Labour to remain well short of an outright majority. Its 250-seat estimate would leave it 76 seats below the 326 generally required for a majority in the House of Commons.
Even in the more favourable tactical-voting scenario, a party’s final position would depend on local results and the willingness of other parties to cooperate in Parliament.
Labour’s recovery is therefore one element of a changing political picture rather than proof that the next election is already decided.
The Conservatives see an opening
The projected decline in Reform’s seats also creates an opportunity for the Conservatives, who have struggled to regain ground since their historic defeat in the 2024 general election.
Under Kemi Badenoch, the party has sought to rebuild its reputation, emphasising economic conservatism, lower taxes and stricter controls on public spending. It has also attempted to distinguish itself from Reform while competing for many of the same voters.
The two parties face a difficult relationship. They compete for support among voters who are dissatisfied with Labour, particularly over immigration, taxation and the size of the state. Yet they differ over leadership, political strategy and the extent to which cooperation might be possible.
Badenoch has ruled out a formal pact with Farage’s party, arguing that the Conservatives must establish their own identity rather than become an extension of Reform.
The latest modelling suggests that the contest between the two parties could remain crucial in determining which candidates win marginal constituencies.
More in Common’s September projection placed the Conservatives on 125 seats, only 22 behind Reform. Both parties were exposed to substantial changes in support because many of their projected victories were narrow.
The Conservatives could benefit if some voters who previously backed Reform return to the party. But the same competition could also work in the opposite direction, particularly if Farage maintains his appeal among voters who want a more radical break with the established political system.
A change of a few percentage points could therefore alter the distribution of seats considerably.
Reform’s narrow margins present a challenge
One of the most important findings in the September modelling concerned the vulnerability of Reform’s projected seats.
More in Common estimated that 69 per cent of the 147 seats allocated to Reform were being won by margins of fewer than five percentage points. That left the party exposed to relatively small shifts in voting behaviour.
In a close constituency, a modest change in support can be enough to determine the winner. Tactical voting, candidate selection, local campaigning and the performance of rival parties can all influence the outcome.
The problem is not unique to Reform. The same model found that many Conservative seats were also highly marginal. Labour had a larger number of projected seats with more comfortable margins, although it too would face competitive contests.
Reform must therefore demonstrate that its support can withstand sustained pressure from established parties and local challengers.
It also faces the task of building an organisation capable of contesting constituencies effectively. Recruiting candidates, maintaining local campaigning teams and managing elected representatives are all important aspects of translating national popularity into parliamentary representation.
The party’s opponents will be looking for opportunities to challenge its candidates and scrutinise its policies. Reform will need to respond with detailed proposals and a convincing account of how it would govern.
Farage faces a strategic dilemma
For Farage, the tactical-voting debate presents a complicated political challenge.
His strategy has depended partly on convincing voters that Reform is the strongest alternative to the established parties. If opponents can persuade their supporters to coordinate around whichever candidate is best placed to defeat Reform, the party’s path to parliamentary gains could become more difficult.
But encouraging tactical voting is not straightforward. Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats have different policy priorities and competing electoral interests. Their supporters may be reluctant to vote for another party, even temporarily.
Local circumstances also matter. A tactical arrangement that makes sense in one constituency may be ineffective in another, and voters do not always follow recommendations from political organisations.
Farage could respond by intensifying his argument that the traditional parties are working together to protect the political establishment. Such a message may appeal to supporters who already believe that Reform is being unfairly challenged.
However, the party’s long-term prospects will depend on more than opposition to its rivals. It must convince voters that its policies are credible, that its candidates can represent their communities and that it has the organisation needed to govern effectively.
The more closely contested the election becomes, the more important these practical questions will be.
Polls are not election results
Despite the dramatic figures, the projections should be treated with caution.
An election model is not a direct count of future seats. It combines polling data with assumptions about how votes may translate into constituency results. Different models can produce different outcomes, particularly when public opinion is volatile and many seats are marginal.
The tactical-voting scenario is especially dependent on behaviour that cannot be known in advance. Voters may decide to coordinate, but they may also remain loyal to their preferred party or change their minds for reasons unrelated to tactical considerations.
There is also considerable time for political circumstances to change before the next general election. Government performance, economic conditions, leadership decisions, international events and local campaigns can all affect voting intentions.
The latest figures should therefore be understood as evidence of uncertainty rather than proof that Farage’s party is destined to win fewer seats than its rivals.
A warning about Britain’s changing electoral landscape
The latest polling models underline how competitive British politics has become. Reform UK remains a major force in the projections, but its estimated seat total has fallen sharply from earlier forecasts. Labour has recovered ground, while the Conservatives have regained some of their projected representation.
Tactical voting could produce an even more dramatic redistribution of seats, although the extent of any effect would depend on how voters behave in individual constituencies.
For Farage, the challenge is to convert support into durable local victories while persuading voters that Reform offers a credible governing alternative. For Labour and the Conservatives, the challenge is to demonstrate that they can address the concerns that helped Reform gain ground in the first place.
Ultimately, the next general election will be decided by voters, not by a polling model published months or years beforehand. The latest projections provide a useful indication of the possible routes to victory and the risks facing each party, but they cannot settle the outcome.
What they do show is that Reform’s electoral position is more complicated than a simple national popularity contest. In Britain’s constituency-based system, the distribution of votes and the behaviour of voters in marginal seats can matter just as much as the national headline figures.
That reality could shape the next election campaign—and determine whether Farage’s ambitions translate into the parliamentary influence he seeks.