Michael Gove has made a big prediction on who wil be the next Prime Minister (Image: Getty)
Michael Gove has made a shock PM prediction and says the tide has turned on Nigel Farage. Conservative Party heavyweight Gove has backed Kemi Badenoch to become the next Prime Minister and said there has been a “change in the weather” over Farage and Reform.
In an exclusive interview given moments after arriving at the Conservative Party Conference in Birmingham, the former cabinet minister gave his thoughts exclusively to the Express about what he feels is a receding threat from Reform – and although he says Kemi “does have what it takes”, he has warned that now is not the time for complacency.
It came as Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch released a Margaret Thatcher-esque blueprint for her party, so voters know exactly what they could expect from her party should there be a snap General Election called by Andy Burnham. Gove, who is now in the House of Lords and editor of The Spectator, said that the atmosphere at the annual event feels very different compared to last year.
He said: “It’s encouraging. I thought that the statement of principles that was covered in the newspapers today from Kemi was brilliant and I think that obviously Andy Burnham caught Labour’s imagination last week so that’s upped the stakes but I think that everything that Kemi and the team have been saying over the last 48 hours has been very encouraging.”
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Gove said Andy Burnham has undoubtedly given the Labour Party a boost – and that he’s a bigger threat than Keir Starmer.
He said: “When we arrived last year, firstly, Reform had had a good summer and secondly, there were question marks over the party’s future, even Kemi’s future. I thought that was misplaced and premature but it was widespread and then Kemi knocked it out of the park with her conference speech and then subsequently her response to the Budget and her evisceration of Rachel Reeves confirmed what people had seen in Manchester which was that she had taken her time to work out her approach and was now in command of the party and proving the most effective thorn in the government’s side.
“So it’s still the case obviously that Burnham is a more formidable opponent than Starmer and that Reform have got their £72m pounds in their locker, but I think that Kemi has refreshed her team, she has been active in the transfer window, and I think that it should be encouraging.
“It’s still the case, obviously, that the Tories have got a lot to do and people’s exasperation with how things ended – and I have got to take my share of the blame for that – is real but I think the fact that Kemi showing that it’s a different party under her is critical and that’s what this week, I think, will probably demonstrate.”
Last year, says Gove, Nigel Farage and Reform was looming large over the party. Does he feel that Kemi and her shadow cabinet are facing the same level of threat this year?
“You can never write him off. He’s been one of the most resilient figures in politics now for more than two decades but there’s definitely been a change in the weather and I think that both the funding scandals but also some of the internal divisions within Reform have held them back and it’s not just been about Reform falling back it’s about Kemi and her team doing a progressively better job so it’s all to play for and I think at the moment most people would say more of the momentum is with Kemi but it’s still the case that both parties are within a few percentage points of one another so anyone who is complacent or who predicts what is going to happen in the next few months I think doesn’t appreciate just how volatile public opinion is but if you have the momentum that’s an advantage and it’s something to exploit.”
Finally, Gove is unequivocal when asked who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK – but, he warns, there is a long way to go.
He said: “I think it will be Kemi. She does have what it takes.”
But he added: “There are lots of bridges to cross.”
Michael Gove Makes Shock Prediction for Next Prime Minister as Nigel Farage Faces a ‘Change of Weather’
Michael Gove has made a striking prediction about Britain’s next prime minister, backing Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch while warning that Nigel Farage’s political momentum may be facing a change. His remarks have added another dimension to the increasingly competitive relationship between the Conservatives, Reform UK and Labour.
In an interview during the Conservative Party conference in Birmingham, Gove said he believed Badenoch had the qualities needed to become prime minister. He also suggested that the political atmosphere surrounding Farage and Reform UK had shifted, pointing to questions over the party’s internal divisions and funding controversies.
Gove’s comments come at a time when Britain’s political landscape remains unsettled. The Conservatives are attempting to rebuild their reputation, Reform UK is seeking to expand its appeal, and Labour faces pressure to demonstrate that its policies can improve the country’s economic prospects.
Although Gove expressed confidence in Badenoch, he also acknowledged that the outcome remained uncertain. His assessment was a political judgement, not a guarantee of what will happen at the next general election.
Michael Gove’s prediction puts Badenoch in the spotlight
Gove, a former senior Conservative cabinet minister who now sits in the House of Lords and edits The Spectator, offered a clear endorsement of Badenoch’s leadership.
He praised her recent political performances and argued that she had developed a more recognisable direction for the Conservative Party. According to Gove, her conference message and attacks on Labour’s economic approach had helped establish a stronger position for the opposition.
His assessment is significant because the Conservatives have spent considerable time attempting to recover from the divisions and electoral setbacks that followed their years in government.
Badenoch inherited a party facing difficult questions about its record, its public image and its ability to distinguish itself from emerging political rivals. Reform UK’s growth has created an additional challenge, particularly among voters who want a tougher approach to immigration, a different economic direction or a break with established political traditions.
Gove’s endorsement suggests that at least some senior Conservatives believe the party can rebuild under Badenoch rather than accept that Reform UK will permanently dominate the political right.
However, a prediction from a prominent Conservative figure does not settle the question of who will become prime minister. That outcome will depend on future elections, public opinion, party leadership and the decisions of voters across the country.
Why Gove believes the political atmosphere has changed
One of the most notable aspects of Gove’s assessment was his suggestion that there had been a “change in the weather” around Farage and Reform UK.
The expression reflects his view that the political conditions facing Reform had become less favourable than they appeared during an earlier period of strong attention and momentum.
Gove pointed to funding controversies and internal divisions as factors that could affect the party’s progress. He also argued that the Conservatives’ own efforts to improve their leadership team and policy presentation had contributed to a different political atmosphere.
For Reform UK, the challenge is to convert public attention into sustained political support. A party can attract voters who are frustrated with the established parties, but maintaining that support requires organisation, credible policies and the ability to manage disagreements within its own ranks.
Questions about funding and transparency can also become politically important because voters expect parties seeking national office to explain how they operate and how they finance their activities.
At the same time, political controversies do not automatically mean a party will lose support. Voters may weigh such concerns against their views on immigration, taxation, public services and the performance of the government.
Gove himself acknowledged that Farage should not be dismissed. He described the Reform leader as a resilient political figure whose influence could not be ignored.
That qualification is important. His comments were not a declaration that Reform had become irrelevant, but an argument that the Conservatives had an opportunity to compete more effectively.
Nigel Farage remains a central figure
Farage has spent years campaigning against Britain’s established political consensus, most notably through his role in the movement that secured Brexit.
Reform UK has sought to turn dissatisfaction with the Conservatives and Labour into support for a broader political alternative. Its messaging has focused heavily on immigration, national sovereignty, taxation and criticism of the political establishment.
That approach has helped make Farage one of the most recognisable figures in British politics.
Yet leading a party with a strong public identity also brings challenges. Reform must demonstrate that its policies are workable, that its candidates and representatives can operate effectively, and that it can maintain public confidence when difficult questions arise.
The party also faces competition from Conservatives who want to persuade right-leaning voters that Badenoch offers a credible alternative.
Gove’s comments highlight this contest. If the Conservatives can persuade voters that they have changed their approach and learned from past mistakes, they may be able to compete for support that might otherwise move towards Reform.
But the scale of that challenge should not be underestimated. Voters who have lost confidence in the Conservatives may require more than a new leader or a sharper conference speech before reconsidering their position.
Reform, meanwhile, will seek to demonstrate that its appeal extends beyond protest voting and can translate into a coherent programme for government.
Andy Burnham adds another dimension
Gove’s assessment also touched on Andy Burnham, whom he described as a more formidable political opponent than Keir Starmer.
Burnham’s position as Greater Manchester mayor has given him a national profile and a platform to discuss regional investment, public services, transport and Labour’s relationship with working-class voters.
His political influence has contributed to wider discussions about the party’s future direction and the leadership qualities voters may expect from a potential prime minister.
For the Conservatives, the prospect of facing a Labour figure with a different political style presents another challenge. The party must develop arguments that address both the national government’s record and the wider concerns of voters who feel that established politics has not delivered sufficient improvements in their lives.
For Reform UK, the contest is also complicated by the need to distinguish its policies from those of the Conservatives while appealing to some of the same voters.
The result is a political environment in which leadership, policy credibility and public confidence are closely connected.
Nevertheless, speculation about future leadership changes should be distinguished from confirmed political decisions. A politician’s prominence or a commentator’s prediction does not by itself establish who will lead a party or become prime minister.
Can the Conservatives rebuild?
Badenoch’s central task is to persuade voters that the Conservatives have a credible plan for Britain’s future.
That involves addressing the party’s previous record while explaining what would change under its current leadership. It also requires convincing voters that Conservative policies could deliver economic stability, improve public services and respond to concerns about immigration and living standards.
Gove’s praise suggests that he believes Badenoch has made progress in establishing a clearer political identity.
However, the party faces several competing pressures. It must retain traditional Conservative voters, appeal to people considering Reform UK and demonstrate that its economic proposals are realistic.
Taxation is likely to remain a major issue. Households want relief from financial pressures, while businesses seek predictable conditions in which to invest and employ workers. Any proposed tax cuts must therefore be accompanied by a credible explanation of their cost and how public services would be funded.
Immigration is another important area of debate. Conservative voters may expect firm commitments, but the effectiveness of any proposed policy will depend on its legal framework, practical implementation and measurable results.
The party also needs to show that it can maintain discipline and unity. Internal disagreements can make it difficult to communicate a consistent message, particularly when competing parties are trying to attract voters who want political change.
Gove’s endorsement may provide encouragement to Conservatives who believe the party can recover, but its longer-term prospects will depend on how effectively it addresses these challenges.
The danger of writing off Reform too early
Despite his support for Badenoch, Gove warned against complacency.
That caution reflects the unpredictable nature of modern British politics. Public opinion can shift in response to economic conditions, leadership performances, policy announcements and unexpected events.
Reform UK has benefited from dissatisfaction with the traditional parties, and Farage has demonstrated an ability to keep his party in the national conversation.
Even if controversies create difficulties, the party may still retain support among voters who believe that the established political system has failed to address their concerns.
The Conservatives therefore face a strategic dilemma. They must challenge Reform’s arguments while avoiding the assumption that its supporters will automatically return to the Conservative fold.
That requires more than attacking Farage. The party must explain why its own policies would offer better results and demonstrate that it understands the reasons voters have become dissatisfied.
Reform faces a comparable challenge of its own. It must persuade voters that its proposals can be implemented successfully and that it can manage the responsibilities associated with political power.
Both parties will need to make their case through policy, organisation and public engagement rather than relying solely on criticism of their rivals.
What Gove’s prediction really tells us
Gove’s prediction that Badenoch could become prime minister is best understood as an expression of confidence in her leadership rather than a reliable forecast of the next election result.
His comments reveal how the Conservatives are attempting to position themselves in a political contest involving Labour, Reform UK and other parties.
They also show that the relationship between Badenoch and Farage remains an important feature of the debate over Britain’s political future.
The suggestion of a “change in the weather” captures Gove’s view that Reform’s earlier momentum may be encountering new obstacles, while the Conservatives have an opportunity to improve their position. But political momentum is difficult to measure conclusively, and it can change again as circumstances develop.
For voters, the more useful questions concern what each party proposes to do, how its policies would be funded and whether its promises are supported by evidence.
Britain faces major challenges involving economic growth, living costs, public services, immigration and regional inequality. Leadership predictions may generate headlines, but those issues will ultimately matter more to the daily lives of the public.
Gove has made his preference clear: he believes Badenoch has the potential to lead the country. Whether voters agree will depend on what she and her party do next, how Farage and Reform respond to their own challenges, and how the wider political landscape develops.
For now, the contest remains open, and Gove’s warning against complacency applies to all sides. No political party can assume that momentum will last forever, and no prediction can replace the judgement of voters when they eventually cast their ballots.