https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDgySG74G4E

Unlike the disastrous 1997 election, however, the Tories do not have the luxury of time between now and the next election in 2029 to get their ducks in a row.

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK appears to be the only party in British politics with momentum, and they will be looking to consolidate their polling and council by-election successes next year.

Focus groups during the leadership election suggested this was the case, and her backers still believe she has the right priorities and beliefs on the key issues.

Her outings at PMQs have been largely successful, demonstrating a force of nature, and a willingness to talk about issues in a fresh way.

One half-hour session a week is not enough. Beyond PMQs, one might observe Ms Badenoch’s only cut-through so far has been a questionable row about whether sandwiches are woke.

Against Nigel Farage, the Tory Party needs to get Ms Badenoch out there on the front foot, capturing the limelight and grabbing voters’ attention on a weekly basis.

This will become easier the more there is media buy-in she is the real deal and could beat Keir Starmer in 2029 – but Reform’s continued high polling numbers make that much more difficult.

I’m told that 2025 will not be the year she changes this strategy, with loyalists insisting she is right to insist there is no point announcing policies this far out of an election.

Kemi’s main offering is a ‘rewiring of the state’, a top-to-bottom reset of the civil service, human rights laws, regulations, the judiciary, quangos, public services.

The problem with this is it’s simply not ‘retail’ enough – voters do not have a clue what it means. Will it mean more money in their pocket? What taxes will she cut? What levels of immigration does she want? Will she leave the ECHR?

I appreciate Kemi wants to take all of this slowly, but she needs to come out with some popular mass-appeal policies in the next year so voters can start to form some idea of what she stands for.

As I say, this is not 1997. Reform UK is breathing down her back and she does not have the luxury of time to wait until 2029 before getting on top of this.

The Tory Party is currently a walking corpse of a party, there have been mass redundancies, much of the talent from government has now gone to earn a proper wage in the private sector, and the membership is pitiful.

In the 2022 leadership contest between Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, there were 172,437 eligible members; two years later that had dropped by 25% to just 131,680.

Reform UK now has a live website ticker counting up their membership to the moment they overtake the Tories – they’re now fewer than 5,000 members from overtaking them.

Members are the essential backbone of a party, they’re more likely to get involved in leafletting and campaigning at elections.

The Tories need to rediscover mass membership and have an offer to both general members and particularly young Britons.

This is over twice the number of Sir Keir Starmer (2.6 million), and 17 times higher than Kemi Badenoch’s 320,000.

Traditional media cut-through is essential, as explained above, but in 2025 social media is increasingly where voters get their information.

Kemi’s 260,000 X followers and 34,000 Facebook followers are simply not good enough and will prove useless in combatting Mr Farage’s following.

In the 2019 election, the Tories won the social media war for the first time ever using the ingenious methods developed by campaigning agency Topham Guerin.

In 2024 the party could no longer afford their services, and the social media war was a wipeout for the Tories.

Kemi Badenoch must build her social media following urgently.

According to one Tory MP: “Money is by far [Kemi’s] biggest problem”.

The party ended the election with only £5 million in the bank, that’s now down to just £3 million – well below the annual £25 million-a-year operating cost for a major political party.

The Tories need big money donors now, and Reform UK’s new treasurer Nick Candy is already on a mission to steal that money away.

Without cash, a party is like a rowing boat with no oars. To beat Nigel Farage, Kemi Badenoch needs a V8 outboard motor – and at the moment it appears no benefactor is willing to stump up for one.

5 Things the Tories Must Do Now or Nigel Farage’s Reform UK Could Destroy Them

The Conservative Party is facing one of the most serious challenges in its modern political history. Once regarded as the natural home of centre-right voters across Britain, the Tories now find themselves competing with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK for political influence, public trust and the loyalty of supporters who once considered Conservative membership a source of pride.

For decades, the Conservatives benefited from a broad coalition of voters united by concerns about taxation, immigration, national security, economic stability and Britain’s place in the world. However, years of political turmoil, leadership changes, controversial policy decisions and growing dissatisfaction have weakened that coalition. Reform UK has recognised the opportunity and is attempting to turn public frustration into a lasting political movement.

For Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, the challenge is particularly urgent. Simply criticising Farage or dismissing Reform UK as a protest party will not be enough to restore the Tories’ standing. The party must demonstrate that it understands why voters are becoming disillusioned and, more importantly, that it can offer credible solutions.

There are five essential steps the Conservatives must take if they want to prevent Reform UK from becoming the dominant force on the British right.

1. Restore Public Confidence on Immigration

Immigration is one of the most politically sensitive issues facing Britain, and it remains central to Reform UK’s appeal. Farage has repeatedly argued that successive governments have failed to exercise sufficient control over Britain’s borders. His message resonates with voters who believe that the immigration system is not working effectively and that political leaders have ignored their concerns for too long.

The Conservatives cannot expect to regain these voters simply by promising to be tougher in the future. They must explain what went wrong during their years in government and identify practical measures that would produce measurable improvements.

That means presenting a comprehensive immigration policy with clear objectives, realistic implementation plans and transparent reporting. The party would need to explain how it intends to reduce irregular migration, improve the efficiency of asylum decisions, enforce lawful removal decisions and strengthen cooperation with international partners.

It must also address the distinction between illegal migration, asylum claims and legal immigration. These issues are frequently discussed together in political debate, but they involve different legal responsibilities and practical challenges.

For many voters, the central question is whether the government can demonstrate that the rules are being enforced consistently and fairly.

The Conservatives should also explain how immigration policy relates to housing, public services, employment and local authority budgets without exaggerating the role of migration in every social or economic problem.

Farage’s advantage is that he can present himself as an outsider who is not responsible for the record of previous governments. The Tories cannot escape their own record, so they must acknowledge mistakes and explain how their future approach would be different.

Without a credible response, Reform UK could continue attracting voters who believe the Conservatives have repeatedly promised change without delivering it.

2. Develop a Clear Economic Plan That Households Can Trust

The economy offers the Conservatives another opportunity to distinguish themselves from Reform UK, but only if they can establish a clear and convincing alternative.

Many British households remain concerned about the cost of living, mortgage payments, rents, energy bills and the tax burden. Small businesses face their own pressures, including employment costs, uncertain consumer demand and the challenge of investing in an economy that has struggled to generate sustained improvements in productivity.

For voters in these circumstances, political arguments about economic ideology can seem distant from everyday reality. They want to know whether their financial situation will improve and whether the next government will manage public money responsibly.

The Conservatives must therefore move beyond broad promises of tax reductions and economic growth. They need to explain how their proposals would be funded, which taxes they would prioritise for reform and how they would avoid placing unsustainable pressure on public finances.

A credible economic programme should also address housing affordability, business investment, skills, infrastructure and the productivity challenges that have limited Britain’s long-term growth.

Badenoch’s party could seek to make economic competence one of its defining characteristics. However, that argument will carry little weight unless voters believe the Conservatives have learned lessons from their time in government.

The party must recognise that its reputation cannot be restored through slogans alone. It needs consistent policies, realistic financial assumptions and a willingness to explain difficult trade-offs.

Reform UK has sought to appeal to voters who believe the established parties have made government too expensive and complicated. The Conservatives must show that they can reduce unnecessary bureaucracy and improve public-sector efficiency without making promises that cannot be sustained.

If the Tories fail to offer a convincing economic vision, Farage could strengthen his claim that Britain needs a fundamentally different political approach.

3. Rebuild Trust by Ending the Cycle of Internal Conflict

Political parties rarely inspire confidence when their internal disagreements dominate the headlines. The Conservatives have experienced repeated leadership struggles, public disputes and arguments about the direction of the party. These divisions have contributed to an impression of instability that opponents can exploit.

Reform UK has its own organisational challenges, and it is not immune to internal tensions. Nevertheless, Farage can benefit whenever the Conservatives appear more interested in fighting among themselves than addressing the concerns of the electorate.

Badenoch must establish a clear direction and persuade Conservative MPs that the party’s survival depends on presenting a coherent alternative rather than pursuing competing personal agendas.

That does not mean suppressing every disagreement. Healthy political organisations need debate, and different views can improve policy development. The problem arises when disagreements become public spectacles that overshadow the party’s message and undermine confidence in its leadership.

The Conservatives need an agreed set of priorities that members, MPs and candidates can communicate consistently. They must also establish clearer expectations about party discipline and how internal disputes should be resolved.

Another important issue is the relationship between the parliamentary party and its grassroots membership. Conservative activists have traditionally played a major role in campaigning, fundraising and connecting national politics with local communities. If members believe their views are ignored, they may become less active or consider supporting another party.

The leadership must therefore create meaningful opportunities for members to influence policy while maintaining a practical process for making final decisions.

It must also confront the possibility that some former Conservative supporters will not return simply because the party has changed its messaging. They may need evidence of a genuine cultural shift, including greater accountability and more consistent decision-making.

Farage’s challenge is not only to persuade voters that Reform UK represents a different set of policies. It is also to persuade them that the established parties cannot change. The Conservatives must prove that claim wrong.

4. Reconnect With Working-Class and Former Conservative Voters

One of Reform UK’s most significant opportunities lies in communities where voters feel economically insecure, politically neglected or disconnected from decision-makers in Westminster.

Many of these voters do not necessarily identify strongly with a particular political ideology. They may be concerned about employment, public transport, local healthcare, housing, community safety or the decline of traditional industries. They may also believe that national politicians pay more attention to major cities and affluent areas than to their own communities.

The Conservatives must recognise that rebuilding support requires more than national television appearances and speeches at Westminster.

They need to understand local concerns and demonstrate that their policies respond to the realities of everyday life. That means listening to residents, working with local businesses, identifying barriers to investment and developing proposals that can make a visible difference.

For example, a credible plan for struggling towns could combine support for small businesses, improved transport connections, vocational training and measures to encourage private investment. Housing policy should address affordability and supply, while public-service proposals should explain how access and efficiency can improve.

The party must also recognise that voters who supported Brexit may have different expectations from those who prioritise economic integration or closer international cooperation. A successful electoral coalition cannot be rebuilt by assuming that every voter shares the same priorities.

Reform UK has tried to create a political identity around national sovereignty, immigration control and opposition to the established political class. The Conservatives need to explain what they offer in practical terms to people who feel that national prosperity has not translated into better opportunities for their families.

That means measuring success through outcomes rather than announcements.

If the Tories can reconnect with communities that feel ignored, they may be able to recover some of the support that has moved towards Farage. If they fail, Reform UK could consolidate its position as the preferred alternative for voters dissatisfied with the traditional political establishment.

5. Offer a Credible Vision for Britain’s Future

The final challenge may be the most important: the Conservatives must explain what they want Britain to become.

Political parties cannot survive indefinitely by defining themselves primarily through opposition to another party. The Tories need a positive vision that connects economic opportunity, public services, national security and individual freedom.

That vision must be specific enough to guide policy but broad enough to appeal to different groups of voters.

On healthcare, the party should explain how it would improve access, increase efficiency and address workforce pressures. On education, it should set out how schools and training institutions could better prepare young people for employment. On defence, it should explain how Britain can meet its security responsibilities while managing the associated financial costs.

The party must also address the long-term consequences of an ageing population, pressures on public spending and the need to encourage sustainable economic growth.

These issues require serious answers, not simply promises that everything can improve while taxes fall and government spending remains unchanged.

The Conservatives also need to establish a clear position on Britain’s relationship with Europe. Brexit remains an important part of the country’s political debate, and voters continue to disagree about its economic consequences and future direction. The party must explain how it intends to protect British interests, support exporters and maintain constructive international relationships.

Farage has long made sovereignty a central theme of his political identity. The Conservatives must show that defending national interests also involves practical decisions about trade, investment, security and diplomacy.

A credible vision should offer voters a reason to support the Conservatives beyond the desire to prevent Reform UK from winning.

If the party cannot provide that reason, its appeals to tactical voting or warnings about Farage may have limited impact.

Can the Conservatives Stop Reform UK?

The five challenges facing the Conservatives are closely connected. Immigration policy affects public confidence, economic performance influences household security, internal conflict weakens leadership and the absence of a clear national vision makes it harder to persuade voters that the party deserves another opportunity.

Reform UK has benefited from dissatisfaction with the established parties, but its long-term prospects will depend on more than the weaknesses of its competitors. Farage must demonstrate that his party can build a reliable organisation, develop detailed policies and attract capable candidates across the country.

The Conservatives, meanwhile, have resources and experience that a newer party may find difficult to replicate. Their parliamentary presence, local networks and history of government remain important advantages. The question is whether they can use those advantages to rebuild confidence rather than rely on their historical reputation.

Badenoch faces a difficult balancing act. She must appeal to former Conservative voters who have moved towards Reform UK while retaining supporters who may be uncomfortable with a more confrontational political approach. She must also distinguish her party from Labour without making promises that undermine economic credibility.

There is no guarantee that adopting Reform UK’s positions would automatically restore Conservative support. Some voters may prefer Farage precisely because they regard him as an outsider, while others may remain dissatisfied with both parties.

Nor does a rise in Reform UK membership necessarily prove that it will win future elections. Membership totals, opinion polls and electoral results measure different aspects of political support, and each must be evaluated carefully.

Nevertheless, the warning for the Conservatives is unmistakable. A party that once appeared electorally dominant cannot assume that its traditional supporters will remain loyal indefinitely.

Conclusion: The Next Move Belongs to the Tories

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has created a serious challenge for the Conservative Party by offering dissatisfied voters an alternative to the political establishment. Whether that challenge becomes a lasting transformation of British politics will depend on the ability of both parties to convince the public that they can deliver meaningful change.

The Conservatives must restore confidence in immigration policy, develop a credible economic programme, reduce destructive internal conflict, reconnect with neglected communities and present a compelling vision for Britain’s future.

These are not merely five campaign tactics. They are fundamental tests of whether the party can rebuild its relationship with the electorate.

If the Conservatives respond with clear policies, honest assessments of their record and consistent leadership, they may be able to recover support. If they continue to rely on familiar slogans while ignoring the reasons voters have become disillusioned, Reform UK could become an increasingly powerful competitor.

Farage does not need to destroy the Conservative Party single-handedly. The greater danger for the Tories is that their own failures could continue creating opportunities for Reform UK.

The coming years will determine whether the Conservatives can reinvent themselves or whether Britain enters a new political era in which Reform UK becomes the principal force challenging Labour for power. For Badenoch and her colleagues, the choice is increasingly clear: confront the reasons behind their declining appeal or risk watching a rival reshape the political landscape they once dominated.

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