Nigel Farage’s party has won the Hakin by-election on Pembrokeshire County Council, with Scott Thorley becoming Reform’s first councillor in the independently controlled authority.

The by-election was called after the death of outspoken former councillor Mike Stoddart.

GB News has dissected the result and what it could mean for the major parties going forward into the Welsh Parliament election.

This week’s sole council by-election was held after the death of local journalist turned Councillor, Mike Stoddart.

The by-election made headlines after the Welsh Labour candidate, Nicola Harteveld, withdrew from the contest after her teenage son was verbally abused by two strangers.

Reform UK’s Scott Thorley won the by-election in the ward, with 179 votes, with Welsh Conservative Party Kelvin Taylor in second place on 144 votes.

Independent candidate Lee James Bridges came in third in 106 with Samuel Booth from the Wales Green Party in fourth on 85 votes.

Reform UK’s Scott Thorley came out on top

| REFORM UK

Samuel Warden from the Welsh Liberal Democrats was in fifth on 57 votes, with Ms Harteveld still attracting 27 votes for Welsh Labour despite her suspending all campaigning.

Independent Derrick Abbott came in last on 11 votes.

A total of 661 votes were cast, with the turnout at 32.7 per cent.

Plaid Cymru did not field a candidate.

It was not the first time Mr Thorley had stood as a candidate for Nigel Farage’s party in Pembrokeshire.

Mr Thorley previously stood in the Prendergast Haverfordwest ward, which was won by Independent Alun Wills, with the Reform candidate finishing in fourth.

Speaking after his victory, Mr Thorley told The Tenby Observer: “It was a massive honour to win last night and I’m more than aware I’ve got some massive shoes to fill in Hakin.

“I’ve already started work this morning and have responded to four residents first thing.

People in Hakin just want the basics done right and someone they can reach out with any issues they have; I will be that person.

Reform UK’s candidate in the Caerphilly by-election, Llyr Powell, said: “Voters want change, and Reform UK is ready to deliver it.

Vote Reform. Get Reform.

The bulk of Pembrokeshire County Council is made up of independent councillors, with 34 out of the 60 elected not affiliated to any party.

Out of the 34, 19 sit together as the “Independent Group”.

There are 11 Welsh Conservative councillors, nine from Welsh Labour, three from Plaid Cymru and two Liberal Democrats.

Mr Thorley has become the first Reform UK councillor on the ward.

During the 2024 general election, the Mid and South Pembrokeshire seat was won by Labour’s Henry Tufnell, who beat the former Conservative minister Stephen Crabb with a majority of 1,878

POLITICAL EARTHQUAKE: Reform UK Scores Shock Victory As Mainstream Parties Face Total Map Overhaul!

Britain’s political landscape is undergoing a period of significant change as Reform UK challenges the dominance of Labour and the Conservatives, putting pressure on the traditional parties to rethink their strategies, policies and relationship with voters. The party’s advances in local government have demonstrated that support for Nigel Farage’s political movement extends beyond isolated protests and is becoming a force that established parties can no longer afford to ignore.

The phrase “political earthquake” has become a familiar description of Reform’s rise, particularly following the party’s strong performance in the May 2026 local elections. But the implications extend beyond the number of council seats won. The bigger question is whether the changing political map represents a temporary rejection of the established parties or a more lasting realignment in British politics.

For Labour and the Conservatives, the challenge is increasingly clear: voters who once regarded the two parties as the natural alternatives are now considering a wider range of political choices.

Reform UK’s Breakthrough Changes the Political Conversation

Reform UK’s local election performance in May marked a substantial expansion of its presence in local government. The party won more than 1,450 council seats and took control of 14 councils, according to figures published by the party following the elections.

The results included gains in areas where Labour had enjoyed longstanding support, as well as places traditionally associated with the Conservatives. That geographical spread was particularly significant because it challenged the assumption that Reform’s appeal was confined to one region or a narrow section of the electorate.

In parts of northern England, Labour faced substantial losses. Sunderland became one of the most striking examples, with Reform making major gains in a city long associated with Labour politics. Elsewhere, the Conservatives suffered setbacks in areas where their local presence had previously appeared secure.

These results did not mean that every former Labour or Conservative voter had switched to Reform. Local elections are influenced by turnout, candidate quality, local issues and dissatisfaction with the performance of individual councils. Nevertheless, the scale of the changes showed that both established parties faced serious difficulties in retaining their traditional support.

For Reform, the next task is to demonstrate that electoral gains can translate into effective administration and sustained public confidence.

Labour Faces Questions About Its Traditional Support

Labour’s difficulties have been especially visible in communities where voters expected the party to deliver improvements in living standards, public services and economic security.

Many of the issues dominating political debate are felt most directly at household level. Housing costs, pressure on local services, the condition of high streets, employment opportunities and the cost of living can all influence how people judge the government.

Immigration has also remained a major source of political disagreement. Some voters believe that successive governments have failed to control migration effectively or plan adequately for population growth. Others place greater emphasis on the contribution migrants make to healthcare, education, business and the wider economy.

Labour must respond to these competing concerns while explaining what its policies are intended to achieve. Promises of reform will carry limited weight if voters do not see practical results in their communities.

However, electoral setbacks cannot be attributed to a single issue. Economic performance, taxation, leadership, public services and trust in politicians can all influence voting behaviour. Any assessment of Labour’s losses must account for this wider picture.

The party’s challenge is to understand why some former supporters have become disillusioned without assuming that all of them share the same priorities or have permanently abandoned Labour.

The Conservatives Face a Different Kind of Crisis

The Conservatives face their own strategic dilemma. After losing power in the 2024 general election, the party has been attempting to rebuild its reputation and establish a clearer identity under Kemi Badenoch.

Reform’s growth has complicated that process. Both parties compete for some voters who favour lower immigration, reduced public spending in selected areas, stronger national sovereignty and a more confrontational approach to the political establishment.

Yet the Conservatives cannot simply copy Reform’s message without considering the differences between the parties. Their records in government, approaches to economic management and positions on public services provide voters with different reasons to support or reject them.

Badenoch has also rejected the idea of an electoral pact with Farage, making clear that she wants the Conservatives to rebuild as an independent political force. That position creates a difficult electoral calculation: the parties may appeal to overlapping groups of voters while remaining rivals for the same constituencies.

If support is divided between them, the consequences under Britain’s first-past-the-post voting system can be substantial. A party can receive a considerable share of the vote nationally yet win fewer parliamentary seats than its supporters expect, particularly when its vote is spread inefficiently across constituencies.

That is one reason the political map can change dramatically even without a single party commanding an overwhelming national majority.

Nigel Farage’s Challenge to the Established Order

Farage has built Reform’s political identity around the argument that the established parties have failed to address voters’ concerns, particularly over immigration, national sovereignty and government accountability.

His message seeks to present Reform as an alternative to what he describes as a political establishment that has become disconnected from ordinary people. Supporters see the party as an opportunity to force changes that they believe Labour and the Conservatives have repeatedly promised but failed to deliver.

Critics question whether Reform can turn its promises into detailed, workable policies. They have raised concerns about the financial implications of proposed tax and spending changes, the practicalities of immigration plans and the party’s capacity to manage complex public institutions.

These are important questions for any party seeking power. Winning elections and running government are different responsibilities, requiring not only a clear political message but also competent administration, credible budgets and decisions that can withstand legal and practical scrutiny.

Reform’s growing role means that it will increasingly be judged on the details of its proposals and on the conduct of its elected representatives, rather than solely on its criticism of its opponents.

Could Britain’s Electoral Map Be Transformed Again?

The local election results have fuelled speculation about what might happen at the next general election. But local results cannot simply be translated into parliamentary seats, and national polling does not guarantee a particular outcome.

The electoral system is a major factor. Under first past the post, each constituency elects the candidate with the most votes, regardless of whether that candidate wins an outright majority of votes cast. Small changes in support can therefore produce large differences in seat totals in closely contested areas.

The distribution of votes matters as much as the national percentage. Reform could make significant gains in constituencies where its support is concentrated, while Labour or the Conservatives might remain competitive elsewhere. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats, Greens, SNP and Plaid Cymru can shape the contest in areas where they have established local support.

Recent modelling has also illustrated how much projected parliamentary representation can change when polling shifts or different assumptions are used. One September 2026 model by More in Common projected a hung parliament, with Labour as the largest party on 250 seats, Reform on 147 and the Conservatives on 125. These were projections rather than election results, and different models can produce different outcomes.

The figures underline the uncertainty facing all parties. A changing political environment does not automatically determine who will form the next government.

The Risks of Governing Through Protest

Reform’s success has been driven in part by dissatisfaction with established political parties. But protest voting can create expectations that are difficult to meet.

Local councils operate within financial, legal and administrative constraints. They must balance budgets, maintain services, manage staffing and respond to statutory responsibilities. A new administration cannot necessarily deliver every campaign promise immediately, even when it has a clear electoral mandate.

Reform-controlled councils will therefore face scrutiny over their spending decisions, service delivery and approach to local priorities. Supporters will expect visible improvements, while opponents will examine whether the party’s policies produce the outcomes it has promised.

The same challenge would apply at national level. A government seeking major changes to immigration, taxation or public services would need to explain how those changes would be funded, implemented and evaluated.

Reform’s ability to maintain public support may depend partly on whether it can demonstrate that its approach works in practice, rather than relying indefinitely on dissatisfaction with its rivals.

The Established Parties Must Adapt

Labour and the Conservatives are not powerless in the face of Reform’s rise. Both can respond by examining their records, refining their policies and addressing the concerns of voters who feel ignored.

For Labour, that means explaining its economic decisions, demonstrating improvements in public services and showing how its immigration policy will operate in practice.

For the Conservatives, it means rebuilding trust after their years in government, presenting credible alternatives and deciding how to compete with a party that draws support from parts of the traditional right.

Other parties will also seek to influence the changing political landscape. The Greens have attracted voters dissatisfied with Labour from the left, while the Liberal Democrats retain opportunities in areas where local campaigning and constituency-level support are important. In Scotland and Wales, national political questions create additional dynamics that cannot be reduced to a simple Labour-Reform-Conservative contest.

Britain is therefore not moving towards a straightforward two-party replacement. Instead, the political system is becoming more fragmented, with several parties competing for support across different regions and voter groups.

A Turning Point, but Not a Predetermined Outcome

Reform UK’s electoral advances have already changed the choices facing British voters. The party has demonstrated that it can win council seats and take control of local authorities in places where established parties once expected to remain dominant.

That is a significant development, but it does not establish what will happen at the next general election. Public opinion can change, parties can recover, and campaign promises will be tested against economic and administrative realities.

The established parties must take the challenge seriously without assuming that every voter who supported Reform is committed to it permanently. Reform, in turn, must show that it can govern effectively and deliver results consistent with its promises.

Britain’s political map is being reshaped by dissatisfaction, competition and changing voter loyalties. Whether that produces a lasting realignment will depend on what happens next: how parties respond, what voters experience in their communities and whether political promises translate into tangible outcomes.

The political earthquake is real in the sense that the old assumptions about local party dominance have been challenged. The final shape of Britain’s future political landscape, however, remains uncertain.