https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zml6P7QfMq4

 

It came as Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch released a Margaret Thatcher-esque blueprint for her party, so voters know exactly what they could expect from her party should there be a snap General Election called by Andy Burnham. Gove, who is now in the House of Lords and editor of The Spectator, said that the atmosphere at the annual event feels very different compared to last year.

He said: “It’s encouraging. I thought that the statement of principles that was covered in the newspapers today from Kemi was brilliant and I think that obviously Andy Burnham caught Labour’s imagination last week so that’s upped the stakes but I think that everything that Kemi and the team have been saying over the last 48 hours has been very encouraging.”

“So it’s still the case obviously that Burnham is a more formidable opponent than Starmer and that Reform have got their £72m pounds in their locker, but I think that Kemi has refreshed her team, she has been active in the transfer window, and I think that it should be encouraging.

Last year, says Gove, Nigel Farage and Reform was looming large over the party. Does he feel that Kemi and her shadow cabinet are facing the same level of threat this year?

Finally, Gove is unequivocal when asked who will be the next Prime Minister of the UK – but, he warns, there is a long way to go.

He said: “I think it will be Kemi. She does have what it takes.”

But he added: “There are lots of bridges to cross.”

Michael Gove Makes Shock Prediction for Next Prime Minister as Nigel Farage Faces a “Change in the Weather”

Michael Gove has delivered a striking prediction about who could become Britain’s next Prime Minister, backing Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch while suggesting that Nigel Farage and Reform UK may no longer enjoy the same political momentum they once did.

In an interview published on October 4, 2026, the former Cabinet minister said he believed Badenoch had what it takes to reach Downing Street. His comments came during the Conservative Party Conference in Birmingham, where the party was seeking to demonstrate that it could challenge both Labour and Reform UK.

Gove’s assessment offered an important insight into the Conservatives’ current political strategy. Rather than treating Farage’s party as an unstoppable force, he argued that Reform’s internal divisions and controversies had created an opportunity for Badenoch to strengthen her position.

But his remarks also contained a warning. British politics remains volatile, and a change in momentum does not guarantee electoral success. With Labour facing questions about its leadership and economic direction, the Conservatives are attempting to persuade voters that they can offer a credible alternative.

The question is whether Badenoch can turn that argument into lasting public confidence—or whether Farage’s appeal will continue to challenge the traditional parties.

Gove backs Kemi Badenoch for No 10

Gove’s prediction was unusually direct. Asked who he believed would become the next Prime Minister, he backed Badenoch, saying that she had the qualities required for the role while acknowledging that significant obstacles remained.

The endorsement came at a consequential moment for the Conservatives. After years of political instability and electoral setbacks, the party has been under pressure to demonstrate that it can rebuild its reputation and present a coherent programme for government.

Badenoch’s supporters believe that a clearer statement of Conservative principles could help distinguish the party from its competitors. They want to show voters what a Conservative government would do on taxation, public spending, immigration, economic growth and the role of the state.

For Gove, the party’s recent activity suggested that it was beginning to establish a more recognisable direction. He praised Badenoch’s approach and argued that the Conservatives had reasons to be more optimistic than they had been at the previous year’s conference.

However, an endorsement from a senior Conservative figure is not a guarantee of success. Badenoch must still convince voters that her policies are credible, that her party has learned from its previous failures and that it can provide effective leadership.

The Conservatives also face the challenge of competing with Reform UK for voters who want a more decisive approach to immigration, public spending and political accountability.

Has Nigel Farage lost momentum?

Gove’s comments about Farage were particularly noteworthy because the Reform UK leader has remained a significant force in British politics.

Farage has built much of his political reputation around challenging established parties, campaigning for Brexit and presenting himself as an alternative to what he describes as the Westminster establishment.

Reform’s appeal has been fuelled by dissatisfaction with mainstream political parties, particularly among voters concerned about immigration, the cost of living and whether successive governments have delivered meaningful improvements.

Yet Gove argued that the atmosphere surrounding Reform had changed. He pointed to funding controversies and internal divisions as factors that could undermine the party’s position.

His assessment was not that Farage could be dismissed. On the contrary, Gove acknowledged that the Reform leader had demonstrated considerable resilience throughout a long political career.

The distinction is important. A party can face damaging headlines and internal disagreements without necessarily losing its broader appeal. Equally, strong public support does not remove the need to demonstrate that a party can operate effectively as a government.

Reform’s challenge is to turn its anti-establishment message into a detailed and workable programme. That means explaining how it would fund its commitments, recruit experienced personnel, manage public services and deal with the practical responsibilities of governing.

For the Conservatives, the opportunity lies in persuading voters that they offer an alternative capable of combining political change with administrative experience.

The controversies facing Reform UK

Gove’s assessment came amid scrutiny of Reform’s funding and internal cohesion.

Political parties depend on donations to finance campaigns, staff and organisational development. Large contributions can provide considerable resources, but they can also invite questions about transparency, influence and the relationship between donors and political decision-makers.

Any allegations concerning party funding need to be assessed on the available evidence rather than assumed to establish wrongdoing. Nevertheless, controversies can create political difficulties if a party struggles to explain its arrangements clearly or reassure voters that its decisions are made in the public interest.

Internal disagreements can also present a challenge. A party that attracts support by promising to challenge the political establishment may still face difficult questions about leadership, candidate selection, discipline and competing policy priorities.

For Reform, the test is whether it can manage those pressures while maintaining a clear message to the electorate.

Farage’s experience as a campaigner may help him navigate political conflict, but running a national party requires more than communication skills. It requires an organisation capable of translating broad promises into policies that can be implemented.

Gove’s remarks suggest that he believes these difficulties could create space for the Conservatives to recover. Whether that happens will depend on how both parties respond to the scrutiny they face.

Andy Burnham adds another dimension

The debate over Britain’s next Prime Minister is not confined to the Conservative and Reform camps.

Gove also acknowledged that Andy Burnham had captured Labour’s attention and represented a more formidable political challenge than Keir Starmer, in his assessment.

Burnham’s profile has made him an important figure in discussions about Labour’s future direction. His political appeal is associated with regional leadership, public services and arguments about how government can address economic inequalities.

For the Conservatives, the possibility of Burnham becoming a more prominent national figure creates another challenge. They would need to compete not only with Farage’s anti-establishment appeal but also with a Labour alternative that might seek to present a different approach to economic and public-service policy.

That makes the political landscape more complicated than a straightforward contest between the Conservatives and Reform.

The parties are competing for different groups of voters, and their fortunes may be affected by a wide range of issues, including taxation, immigration, healthcare, housing and confidence in political leadership.

Gove’s assessment highlights how the Conservatives are positioning themselves, but it does not establish which party will ultimately prevail.

Why the Conservatives believe they have an opportunity

The Conservatives have spent considerable time trying to distinguish Badenoch’s leadership from the party’s recent past.

For voters who abandoned the party, restoring trust is likely to require more than a new set of slogans. They will want to see a credible economic programme, clear commitments on public services and convincing explanations of how the party would avoid repeating previous mistakes.

Badenoch’s strategy has involved presenting a more defined set of principles and attempting to show that the Conservatives can make difficult choices rather than simply react to their rivals.

The party’s supporters argue that a clearer ideological direction could help it regain voters who are dissatisfied with Labour but uncertain about Reform.

However, there are risks. A strongly defined political identity may energise existing supporters while making it more difficult to attract voters who prefer a different approach. Policies designed to appeal to one part of the electorate may also create concerns among others.

The Conservatives must therefore demonstrate not only what they oppose but what they would deliver in government.

Tax cuts, for example, require a credible explanation of how they would be funded. Promises to reduce immigration need to be accompanied by practical proposals and an assessment of their economic implications. Commitments to improve public services require realistic spending plans and measurable objectives.

Without that detail, a leadership reset may struggle to translate into lasting political support.

Can Farage be written off?

Gove was careful not to suggest that Farage had become irrelevant.

The Reform leader has spent more than two decades in British politics and has repeatedly demonstrated an ability to bring issues such as immigration, European integration and distrust of established parties into the national conversation.

His supporters regard him as a politician prepared to challenge assumptions that they believe mainstream parties have ignored. His critics question aspects of his policy programme and whether Reform has the experience and organisational depth required to govern effectively.

Both assessments form part of the political debate, but neither removes the need to examine the party’s actual proposals and performance.

Farage’s continued influence will depend on several factors. Reform will need to maintain public confidence, demonstrate organisational discipline and persuade voters that its policies can work beyond the campaign trail.

The Conservatives, meanwhile, will need to show that they can address many of the same concerns without simply copying Reform’s rhetoric.

Gove’s description of a “change in the weather” is best understood as his interpretation of the political atmosphere at the time of the conference, not proof that Reform’s support has permanently declined.

Public opinion can change quickly, and a single conference or interview cannot determine the longer-term direction of British politics.

The challenge of winning public trust

The next general election is expected to take place by 2029 at the latest, unless it is called earlier. That gives the political parties time to develop their programmes, but it also means that their positions could change considerably before voters make their decision.

For Badenoch, the challenge is to establish a credible alternative to Labour and convince voters that the Conservatives can provide stable leadership.

For Farage, it is to demonstrate that Reform can turn its political appeal into a coherent plan for governing the country.

For Labour, the challenge is to address dissatisfaction with its performance and establish confidence in its economic and public-service policies.

Gove’s comments reveal how one experienced Conservative views these competing challenges. His confidence in Badenoch is significant as an expression of support within the party, but the outcome will depend on much more than the opinions of senior political figures.

Voters will judge the parties on their policies, credibility, conduct and ability to address the problems affecting everyday life.

A prediction, not a verdict

Michael Gove’s backing for Kemi Badenoch provides a headline-grabbing assessment of the Conservative leader’s prospects. His suggestion that the political atmosphere has shifted around Farage also offers a glimpse of how some Conservatives believe the contest is developing.

But his prediction remains an opinion, not a settled outcome.

Reform continues to face questions about funding, internal unity and its readiness for government. The Conservatives face their own challenge in rebuilding trust and convincing voters that they can deliver a convincing alternative. Labour’s future direction adds another layer of uncertainty.

The next Prime Minister will ultimately emerge from the electoral process, not from a prediction made at a party conference.

For now, Gove’s message is that the Conservatives should not assume Farage’s momentum is permanent and should take the opportunity to strengthen their own position. Whether Badenoch can convert that opportunity into electoral success remains an open question.

The wider lesson is that British politics is rarely static. Parties that appear dominant can encounter setbacks, while leaders who face scepticism can rebuild support if they offer credible policies and persuade voters that they understand the country’s concerns.

The coming months will show whether Gove’s confidence in Badenoch is matched by a sustained change in the political landscape—or whether Farage and Reform remain a major challenge for the established parties.

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