The real reason Andy Burnham is terrified of cutting benefits will shock you

Politicians who vote to bring down Britain’s giant welfare bill face danger at the ballot box, according to a new analysis which shows that most Conservative, Labour and Reform UK MPs in England and Wales could see their majorities wiped out. More than half of MPs (54.3%) have a smaller majority than the number of people claiming Personal Independence Payments (PIP) in their constituencies, the research by the Taxpayers’ Alliance found.

And it’s likely to go some way to explaining why Andy Burnham’s Labour seems intent on boosting benefits for Britons.

In July the number of PIP claimants hit a record high, with just over four million people entitled to the benefit to help with the extra costs that come with being disabled or having other long-term physical or mental conditions. The BBC reported that when adjusted for inflation the cost to the taxpayer has rocketed from £16.3billion to £27.3billion in 2024-25 – and could hit £41.5billion by 2030-31.

The Taxpayers’ Alliance said politicians would need to be “brave” to cut welfare spending. It found the number of PIP claimants was bigger than the majority of the MP in 66.1% of seats in England and Wales held by the Conservatives, 62.5% of those represented by Reform and 55.6% of those in Labour hands.

Sir Keir Starmer suffered a major blow to his authority in 2025 when he sought to tighten PIP assessments but was forced to roll back plans after more than 120 Labour MPs threatened to rebel. The new analysis found 13 cabinet members have more PIP claimants in their constituencies than their majorities. They include Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, whose Birmingham Ladywood seat was home to 11,431 PIP claimants – 8,010 more than her majority of 3,421.

It reported that Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch had 4,136 PIP claimants in her North West Essex constituency – 1,526 more than her majority of 2,610.

Shimeon Lee, a policy analyst at the Taxpayers’ Alliance said: “These figures expose just how politically difficult PIP reform has become. The 2025 rebellion against welfare reform showed how quickly those pressures can shape welfare policy and politicians’ voting. Our political class needs to be brave if they wish to cut welfare spending, get more people back into work and put taxpayers’ minds at ease.”

Helen Whately, the Conservatives’ Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary, said: “Labour MPs spent the past two years fighting off every attempt to rein in the benefits bill… Labour had a huge majority and still ran up the white flag on £5billion of savings the moment their backbenchers took fright, and they have not brought forward a single welfare reform since. Britain has always believed in a fair deal, where those who put in can expect to get something back and those who can work are expected to. Labour has lost that instinct, and the Conservatives will restore it, so that welfare is a safety net for those who need it and a fair deal for those who pay for it.”

Robert Jenrick – Nigel Farage’s choice to serve as Chancellor in a Reform UK Government – pledged to stamp out fraud, saying: “Labour and the Tories are the parties of welfare. We are the party of alarm clock Britain. We’ll end the fraud and abuse of the welfare system and use that money to cut taxes for workers and protect pensions instead.”

A spokesperson for the Department for Work and Pensions said: “The increase in the PIP caseload has slowed under this Government, falling from 400,000 in the 12 months to July 2024, to 260,000 in the 12 months to July 2026. We are already reforming the welfare system across the country by narrowing the gap between Universal Credit standard and health rates, restoring face-to-face assessments, and investing £3.5billion in employment support to end the culture of people being signed off and written off. We’re putting work and opportunity at the heart of the system, and the final recommendations from the Timms and Milburn Reviews will lay the foundation for sustainable reform.”