Tory leader Kemi Badenoch and Reform UK’s Nigel Farage (Image: GETTY)
A Reform–Tory alliance would have a seven-point lead over Labour, according to new polling. The survey found if Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch’s parties joined forces they would poll lower than their combined vote share as separate entities.
But they would still have enough support to beat Sir Keir Starmer. The poll by Conservative peer Lord Ashcroft, first reported by the Mail on Sunday, shows 61% of Tory voters would back a “unite the Right” coalition, while 50% of Reform supporters would.
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Former Tory MP Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg is among those calling for a deal between the two parties to oust Labour.
But both Mr Farage and Mrs Badenoch have publicly ruled out striking any pacts.
It comes as insurgent party Reform is consistently leading national opinion polls.
In the latest boost for Mr Farage, Danny Kruger last week became the first sitting Conservative MP to defect to Reform.
Danny Kruger is one of the latest high-profile defectors from the Tories to Reform UK (Image: Getty)
The East Wiltshire MP, who will head up Reform’s efforts to prepare for Government, declared that his former party was “over”
The move adds to the building sense of exodus from the traditional party of the centre right.
Mrs Badenoch admitted that her party was facing a “rough and bumpy time” following the defection.
Fresh blow to Keir Starmer as new poll shows Reform UK-Tory alliance would beat Labour
Keir Starmer has been handed another reminder of the fragmented nature of British politics as fresh polling examines what could happen if Reform UK and the Conservatives attempted to unite their support.
The prospect of cooperation between Nigel Farage’s Reform UK and Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives has repeatedly returned to the political debate as the two parties compete for voters on the right.
But the latest detailed analysis from Lord Ashcroft Polls suggests that an alliance would not simply add the two parties’ existing support together. In fact, when voters were asked about a hypothetical Conservative-Reform alliance, the combined grouping attracted 28 per cent support, compared with 41 per cent when the two parties were considered separately. Labour’s support also increased in the alliance scenario.
The findings demonstrate both the potential attraction and the considerable risks of attempting to unite the two parties.
The appeal of a united right
At first glance, the arithmetic appears straightforward.
In Lord Ashcroft’s research, the Conservatives and Reform together commanded considerably more support when respondents were asked about the parties individually than Labour did. Ashcroft found the combined Reform and Conservative vote share was around 13 points higher than Labour’s individual vote share.
That provides the basis for the argument that a divided right could potentially prevent its own voters from splitting their support across competing candidates.
Under Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system, such divisions can matter considerably. Two parties competing for similar voters can allow a third party to win constituencies without securing a majority of the vote.
That has been one reason the idea of a Conservative-Reform agreement has continued to attract attention.
However, the polling suggests that simply creating an alliance would not automatically produce the arithmetic implied by adding the two existing vote shares together.
The alliance loses support
Ashcroft’s research asked voters to consider a hypothetical coalition involving Reform and the Conservatives.
The result was striking.
While Reform and the Conservatives separately had a combined vote share of 41 per cent in the relevant analysis, the hypothetical alliance received only 28 per cent.
That represented a 13-point reduction compared with the two parties’ combined individual support.
The pollster also found that Labour’s vote share increased by five points when faced with the hypothetical Conservative-Reform alliance.
This meant that the alliance reduced Labour’s lead from seven points to five rather than overturning it.
The reason was not simply tactical voting by voters on the left.
Ashcroft found that only 8 per cent of the additional Labour support in this scenario came from other left-of-centre parties. Thirty-one per cent came from people who currently supported the Conservatives, while 29 per cent were undecided and more than a quarter said they would not vote.
That finding is particularly important because it suggests that a formal alliance could itself cause some existing supporters to reconsider their political choice.
Conservative voters are more cautious
The research identified a significant difference between Conservative and Reform voters when asked about cooperation.
Among Conservative voters, 40 per cent fell into Ashcroft’s “loyalist” category—people who preferred the Conservative-Reform coalition and the relevant right-wing leader to Labour’s leader.
Another 31 per cent were classified as “defectors”, meaning they preferred Labour’s leader in the relevant comparison and did not prefer a Conservative-Reform coalition.
The remaining voters were categorised as “waverers”.
Reform voters were substantially more supportive of an alliance.
Around 75 per cent were classified as loyalists under Ashcroft’s definition, although that was six points lower than in the previous study.
The difference highlights a fundamental problem for any attempt to construct a united conservative-right electoral vehicle.
Reform voters may be more willing to work with the Conservatives, but Conservative voters are considerably more divided about the idea.
Farage and Badenoch face different calculations
The political interests of the two leaders are also not identical.
Farage has repeatedly argued that Reform can win support directly rather than needing to merge with an established party. The Conservatives, meanwhile, have been attempting to rebuild after their historic defeat at the 2024 general election.
For Badenoch, an agreement with Reform could potentially reduce competition on the right, but it could also alienate voters who remain uncomfortable with Farage and his party.
For Farage, an alliance could provide access to Conservative voters and infrastructure, but it could also risk losing some Reform supporters who want a clear break from the established political parties.
Ashcroft’s research suggests both concerns have substance.
Among Reform supporters who were less enthusiastic about an alliance, some were closer politically to alternative parties such as Restore Britain. Among Conservative defectors, meanwhile, voters were more likely to remain connected to the Conservative political camp even if they were not enthusiastic about a deal with Reform.
That creates a complicated strategic calculation for both parties.
Starmer’s position
For Labour, the possibility of a Conservative-Reform alliance matters because the two parties collectively represent a large section of the current electorate.
A formal agreement could potentially reduce vote splitting in some constituencies and alter the contest between Labour and the parties of the right.
But the latest polling suggests that such an agreement could also motivate some voters to support Labour instead.
That is particularly significant because Labour is itself operating in a fragmented political environment.
The party faces competition not only from Reform and the Conservatives but also from the Liberal Democrats, Greens and other parties.
Recent YouGov research into tactical voting found that, in a hypothetical constituency contest between Labour and Reform, Labour was backed by 41 per cent compared with 26 per cent for Reform. In a Conservative-Reform contest, the Conservatives led Reform 35 per cent to 20 per cent.
These figures show that voters do not necessarily behave according to their current national voting intention when a constituency becomes a direct two-party contest.
National polling remains close
The broader national polling picture also does not currently show a straightforward Reform-Conservative takeover.
A YouGov poll conducted on September 20 and 21 put Labour on 23 per cent, with both the Conservatives and Reform on 21 per cent. The Greens were on 14 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 12 per cent.
Ipsos, using fieldwork from September 10 to 15, produced a somewhat different result: Labour on 27 per cent, Reform on 23 per cent and the Conservatives on 21 per cent.
The variation between pollsters illustrates why individual surveys should not be treated as definitive measures of the electorate.
It also means that any discussion of a future Conservative-Reform arrangement needs to distinguish between national vote shares, hypothetical alliance support and constituency-level outcomes.
The parliamentary arithmetic
The question becomes even more complicated when polling is converted into parliamentary seats.
YouGov’s latest MRP model, based on nearly 17,000 respondents surveyed between August 23 and September 18, projected Labour as the largest party with 241 seats.
The Conservatives were projected on 130 seats and Reform on 123, with the Liberal Democrats on 71.
The combined Conservative-Reform figure in that model would therefore be 253 seats.
That would be more than either party individually, but still below the 326 seats required for an overall Commons majority.
More in Common’s September MRP similarly projected Labour on 250 seats, Reform on 147 and the Conservatives on 125.
These models demonstrate why an alliance cannot be assessed simply by adding national polling percentages.
The distribution of support across constituencies is crucial.
Why the alliance question keeps returning
The Conservative-Reform debate is unlikely to disappear while the two parties compete for overlapping voters.
Reform has established itself as a major political force, while the Conservatives remain one of Britain’s traditional governing parties.
Both have reasons to consider cooperation and reasons to resist it.
Supporters of an alliance can point to the risk of dividing votes between candidates with broadly similar positions on issues such as immigration, taxation, welfare, defence and Britain’s relationship with Europe.
Opponents can point to ideological differences, competing leadership ambitions and the possibility of alienating voters who do not want the two parties to merge their political identities.
Ashcroft’s latest research captures that tension particularly clearly.
The pollster concluded that while the question of uniting the right has become increasingly important, it has also become increasingly difficult.
A problem with no simple solution
For Starmer, the debate provides another indication that the political landscape is not returning to the traditional two-party competition between Labour and the Conservatives.
Reform has changed the electoral calculation on the right, while the Greens and Liberal Democrats have also demonstrated their ability to compete for voters.
But the latest evidence does not show that a Conservative-Reform alliance would automatically defeat Labour.
Indeed, the detailed Ashcroft polling points in the opposite direction on the specific question of an alliance: the hypothetical grouping received less support than the two parties separately, while Labour’s support increased.
The findings therefore offer a more complicated picture than the dramatic headline suggests.
A united right could theoretically reduce competition between Reform and the Conservatives in individual constituencies. Yet bringing the parties together could also cause some voters to leave, particularly among Conservatives who do not favour cooperation with Farage’s party.
With national polling remaining close and constituency models showing large numbers of marginal seats, the eventual consequences would depend heavily on the precise form of any agreement and how voters responded to it.
For now, the evidence shows that the possibility of cooperation is politically significant, but far from straightforward.
The central question for both Reform and the Conservatives is not simply whether they have enough support between them. It is whether they could combine that support without losing voters in the process.
That is a very different proposition—and one that the latest polling suggests neither party can take for granted.