A major new poll reveals which Labour MPs could lose their seats to Reform UK (Image: Getty)
A major new poll reveals which Labour MPs could lose their seats to Reform UK if the next general election were held today.
Briony Richer, communications director at Electoral Calculus, said tactical voting is starting to grow and could be a “game-changer” in key constituencies, even with Reform currently leading the polls, reports GB News.
According to the survey of over 10,000 voters, splits between Labour, the independents, and other parties could allow Reform to snatch several high-profile seats, putting figures such as Rachel Reeves and Shabana Mahmood at risk. The news emerges as our poll asks: Should Keir Starmer say sorry to Nigel Farage over Reform attacks?
Reform support remains rock solid
Ms Richer added that while left-wing alliances may attempt to block Reform, the party’s core support remains strong, meaning Nigel Farage and his team could still dominate the next election if current trends hold.
Speaking to GB News she explained: “So we have recently done a major poll, surveying over 10,000 people across the UK.
“What that found is that, while Reform are very much leading in the polls and are currently the most popular party, there is strong anti-Reform tactical voting sentiment starting to grow.
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“This could affect Nigel Farage, potentially costing him around 60 seats that might otherwise be in his outright majority.
“A lot of Labour and Conservative MPs are now at risk because of tactical voting.
“That story could still change, but tactical voting is certainly going to be a game-changer and could be decisive in the next general election.
“Even with 30 per cent of the vote share right now, around seven out of ten voters want a different party from Reform, so tactical voting is very much in play.”
High-profile Cabinet ministers in danger
GB News host Martin Daubney said: “At present, Yvette Cooper has an 86 per cent chance of Reform taking her seat.
“Wes Streeting, who previously called Nigel Farage a ‘snake oil salesman and a con artist,’ has a 44 per cent chance of his seat going to Reform.
“Next, Shabana Mahmood, the Home Secretary, who called Nigel Farage worse than racist, guess what? Reform could take her seat under the same metrics as before, with the independent and Labour vote splitting.
“Even Rachel Reeves, without tactical voting, has a 60 per cent chance of Reform taking her seat. Looking forward, we could see the mother of all tactical voting campaigns, where the left and the liberals coordinate to vote for anybody but Farage.”
Labour voters would back Tories to stop Reform
She explained: “Interestingly, when it came down to a head-to-head between Conservative and Reform, over a third of Labour voters would swing to the Conservatives, showing where the strong anti-Reform sentiment is coming from.
“On the flip side, Reform voters remain very loyal. In a Lib Dem–Conservative contest, Reform supporters are highly unlikely to support the Conservatives, they stick with their party.
“As you said, if left-wing parties start forming alliances and coalitions, the seats I mentioned could indeed challenge Reform.
“Right now, there are risks to Rachel Reeves and Yvette Cooper if tactical voting comes into play, and you could also see Ed Miliband, Kemi Badenoch, and Robert Jenrick affected.
“There are a lot of variables that could make this very interesting on the ground once campaigns start.
“But as it stands, if a general election were held now, Reform would still be the major party, although they would most likely need to negotiate and share power in key seats.”
Bombshell poll reveals which Labour MPs could lose seats to Reform
A major new constituency-level poll has highlighted the Labour MPs whose seats could be vulnerable to Reform UK, providing a detailed picture of how Britain’s increasingly fragmented political landscape could affect individual constituencies.
The latest YouGov MRP model, based on nearly 17,000 adults surveyed between August 23 and September 18, 2026, projects Labour winning 241 seats if a general election were held under the conditions measured by the poll. That would represent a substantial reduction from the 411 seats Labour won at the 2024 general election.
Crucially, however, the model does not suggest that all of Labour’s projected losses would go to Reform. Of the 172 Labour seats that YouGov currently projects the party would lose, 102 are projected to go to Reform UK, while others would be gained by the SNP, Conservatives, Plaid Cymru and Greens.
The figures therefore provide a constituency-by-constituency picture of where Reform is currently strongest rather than a definitive prediction of what will happen at the next general election.
Yvette Cooper among the Labour MPs under pressure
One of the most prominent names highlighted by the YouGov model is Health Secretary Yvette Cooper.
Cooper currently represents Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley in West Yorkshire. YouGov’s latest MRP projects Reform UK to gain the constituency from Labour.
The seat has traditionally been associated with Labour, but the latest modelling illustrates how changes in voting patterns can alter the political picture in constituencies that have historically been regarded as relatively secure.
Cooper is not the only senior Labour figure identified as potentially vulnerable.
The YouGov model also places Welsh Secretary Stephen Kinnock’s Aberafan Maesteg constituency and Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Bryant’s Rhondda and Ogmore among seats where Labour faces serious competition. In the model, Labour trails both Plaid Cymru and Reform in those Welsh constituencies.
That is particularly significant because Wales has historically provided Labour with a large proportion of its parliamentary representation.
The MRP nevertheless indicates that the political geography of Wales has become considerably more competitive, with multiple parties capable of challenging Labour in different areas.
Reform’s projected gains from Labour
The scale of the potential Labour-to-Reform movement is one of the most notable features of the latest YouGov analysis.
The model projects Reform UK gaining 102 seats from Labour. That does not mean 102 Labour MPs are destined to lose their seats. Instead, it means that, under the assumptions and voting patterns measured in the survey, those constituencies are currently estimated to have Reform ahead.
MRP models work differently from ordinary national voting-intention polls.
A conventional poll might ask several thousand people across Britain which party they would vote for. An MRP model combines survey responses with demographic and constituency-level information to estimate how voting patterns could translate into individual seats.
That distinction is especially important under Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system.
A party can gain votes nationally without winning many additional constituencies if its support is spread inefficiently. Conversely, a party with a lower national vote share can win more seats if its support is concentrated in particular areas.
YouGov itself warns that constituency-level estimates should be treated cautiously, particularly because the next general election remains some distance away and individual candidate effects are difficult to model.
A warning for Labour’s former strongholds
The figures nevertheless illustrate a major challenge for Labour.
The party won a landslide 411 seats in 2024, but many of those constituencies were won with relatively modest levels of support because Conservative and other opposition votes were divided.
The political environment is now considerably more fragmented.
Reform has emerged as a major competitor, while the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens and nationalist parties retain significant support in different parts of Britain.
That creates a different electoral calculation for Labour MPs.
A constituency does not necessarily need to experience a dramatic collapse in Labour support for the MP to become vulnerable. If several opposition parties increase their vote shares at the same time, the outcome can depend on relatively small differences between the top two candidates.
YouGov’s analysis found that 37 per cent of constituencies are decided by five percentage points or less in its central estimate. Among seats projected to be won by Reform, the figure rises to 67 per cent.
Those figures underline the uncertainty surrounding the current projections.
The north remains important
The latest data also show that Reform’s challenge to Labour is not uniform across Britain.
Labour remains relatively strong in parts of the North West. YouGov’s model projects the party leading in 24 of Greater Manchester’s 27 constituencies, a reduction of only one seat compared with its 2024 performance.
That represents a substantial improvement compared with earlier modelling conducted when Keir Starmer was prime minister. YouGov’s September 2025 model had projected Labour to hold only 10 seats in the city region, with Reform ahead in 15.
The contrast demonstrates why national headlines about Labour’s position can sometimes obscure significant regional differences.
A constituency such as Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley may currently show a very different political pattern from one in Greater Manchester.
The latest YouGov analysis says Labour loses a relatively small proportion of its North West seats compared with other regions. In the wider North of England, the projected losses are greater, while the Midlands and southern England outside London show larger proportions of Labour’s 2024 seats being lost in the model.
Ed Miliband’s seat also highlighted
Another senior Labour figure whose constituency has attracted attention is Energy Secretary Ed Miliband.
His Doncaster North seat is currently modelled as a Labour-Reform marginal in separate constituency analysis published by More in Common.
The September 2026 More in Common MRP projects Miliband to lose the constituency to Reform by approximately one percentage point. The same analysis projects Yvette Cooper and John Healey to lose their seats to Reform, while suggesting that other senior Labour figures could also face closely fought contests.
More in Common’s figures differ considerably from YouGov’s overall picture, illustrating why individual MRP models should not be treated as settled forecasts.
The organisation’s September model projects Reform on 147 seats, considerably below its earlier projections, while Labour has recovered in several parts of northern England and Wales.
The differences between the two models are themselves informative.
They demonstrate how sensitive constituency projections can be to changes in polling data, assumptions and the period during which respondents were surveyed.
Why MRP results can change quickly
MRP polling has become increasingly prominent in British politics because it attempts to answer the question that national polls cannot: which constituencies could change hands?
But the technique has important limitations.
The next general election is not currently taking place, and voters may change their minds. Parties can change leaders, policies and campaign strategies. New candidates can have an impact, while local political developments can reshape individual contests.
YouGov specifically cautions that some constituency estimates are more uncertain than others. The pollster points out that individual candidate factors, by-election results and other highly localised circumstances are difficult to incorporate fully into a model at this stage of the parliamentary cycle.
That warning is particularly relevant when interpreting headlines claiming that individual MPs “could lose” their seats.
The accurate interpretation is that the model currently places those constituencies in a position where another party is estimated to have sufficient support to overtake Labour under the conditions measured.
It does not establish what voters will ultimately do.
Reform’s changing position
There is another important qualification.
The latest YouGov MRP does not show Reform advancing everywhere.
In fact, its overall projection has moved substantially compared with earlier modelling.
YouGov currently estimates Reform at 123 seats, compared with 130 for the Conservatives and 241 for Labour. The Liberal Democrats are projected to win 71, the SNP 40, Plaid Cymru 15 and the Greens nine.
The model therefore presents a very different picture from some of the earlier MRP studies that had placed Reform close to a parliamentary majority.
The Independent also reported that another recent YouGov MRP had projected a very different distribution of seats, illustrating the volatility of current constituency-level polling.
This is why the latest figures should be understood as a snapshot rather than a forecast of the next election.
What it means for Labour MPs
For Labour MPs, however, the constituency numbers still carry political significance.
A national Labour recovery can coexist with individual MPs facing difficult contests. Conversely, a strong Reform showing nationally does not guarantee that Reform will capture every seat where it currently leads.
The MPs facing the most attention are those whose constituencies repeatedly appear as Labour-Reform battlegrounds across different models.
Yvette Cooper’s Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley is one example. Ed Miliband’s Doncaster North is another, while John Healey’s Rawmarsh and Conisbrough also appears in More in Common’s latest analysis as a potential Reform gain.
The political geography is therefore becoming more complicated than a simple Labour-versus-Reform contest.
In some seats, the Conservatives remain the principal challenger. In others, the Liberal Democrats, Greens, SNP or Plaid Cymru are better positioned.
That means Labour’s future parliamentary position will depend not simply on its national vote share but on where its support is retained or lost.
A changing electoral map
The latest MRP figures provide a striking illustration of how Britain’s electoral map has changed since the 2024 general election.
Labour remains the largest party in YouGov’s latest central projection, but its projected 241 seats would still be 170 fewer than the party won in 2024. At the same time, Reform’s current position is far stronger than its five seats at the last election.
The figures also show why individual constituencies matter.
A national polling percentage can conceal dramatic differences between neighbouring areas. Labour may retain strong support in one northern constituency while facing a close contest with Reform only a short distance away.
For MPs such as Cooper, Miliband and Healey, the latest models therefore provide an indication of where the pressure points currently lie.
But the word “currently” is crucial.
There is still considerable time for public opinion to change, and different polling models are already producing substantially different pictures of Britain’s electoral map.
The latest poll does not determine which MPs will lose their seats. Instead, it identifies constituencies where the present pattern of support would make a Labour defeat possible under the model’s assumptions.
For Labour, that means the political challenge is highly local as well as national. For Reform, the figures show where its current support has translated into projected constituency gains. And for voters, the contrasting MRP models offer another reminder that Britain’s next parliamentary contest remains uncertain and that polling projections are snapshots of opinion rather than established electoral outcomes.