Huge Poll Boost for Nigel Farage as Reform Overtakes Labour in Scotland
Nigel Farage and Reform UK have made significant gains in Scotland during the political upheaval of 2026, at one stage overtaking Labour in polling for the Scottish Parliament election and establishing themselves as a major challenger to the traditional parties.
The rise was particularly striking because Reform had previously had only a limited parliamentary presence in Scotland. However, dissatisfaction with the established parties, changes in Labour support and the fragmentation of the Scottish political landscape created an opportunity for Farage’s party to expand its support north of the border.
The latest evidence also shows why individual polls need to be treated carefully. Reform’s position in Scotland has changed considerably during the year, and more recent polling has shown Labour recovering while the Scottish National Party remains the largest force.
Nevertheless, Reform’s earlier rise remains an important part of the story of Scotland’s rapidly changing electoral landscape.
Reform’s breakthrough in Scottish polling
A YouGov poll published in January 2026 provided one of the clearest signs of Reform’s growing support.
The poll found the SNP on 34 percent of the constituency vote, Reform UK on 20 percent and Labour on 15 percent. On the regional list, the SNP stood at 29 percent, followed by Reform on 20 percent and Labour on 15 percent.
The figures were notable because Reform had moved into second place in both measures.
For Labour, the result represented a serious warning about the difficulty of rebuilding its position in Scotland after the party’s poor performance in the 2024 general election and subsequent decline in support.
For Reform, meanwhile, the figures suggested that Farage’s appeal was no longer restricted to parts of England and Wales.
The party was attracting voters from different political backgrounds, including some who had previously supported Labour and the Conservatives.
YouGov found that only 32 percent of people who had voted Labour in Scotland at the 2024 general election intended to give Labour their constituency vote in May 2026. Fourteen percent said they would support Reform, while 13 percent intended to vote SNP.
The movement was even more pronounced among former Conservative voters. Only 48 percent of 2024 Conservative voters intended to remain with the party, while 27 percent said they would support Reform.
These figures demonstrated the breadth of the challenge facing Scotland’s established parties.
Farage’s appeal in Scotland
Farage has long attempted to build political support across the United Kingdom, but Scotland presents a particularly difficult environment for Reform.
Scottish politics has traditionally been dominated by the SNP, Labour and Conservatives, with the Liberal Democrats and Greens also maintaining established support.
Farage’s political message, centred on immigration, taxation, Brexit and opposition to what he describes as excessive government intervention, does not automatically translate into Scottish support.
Indeed, YouGov’s January research showed that Farage himself remained unpopular among Scottish voters. Sixty-nine percent viewed him unfavourably, compared with 24 percent who viewed him favourably.
That created an interesting distinction between support for Reform as a party and attitudes towards its leader.
A voter could support Reform without necessarily having a favourable opinion of Farage personally.
This distinction is important because Reform’s political identity remains closely associated with its leader.
Labour’s difficult position
Labour’s problems in Scotland have been particularly significant because the party once dominated Scottish politics.
For much of the twentieth century, Labour represented a large proportion of Scottish constituencies at Westminster. That position was dramatically weakened by the rise of the SNP, particularly after the 2015 general election.
The 2024 general election produced something of a Labour revival in Scotland, with the party winning 37 of the country’s 57 Westminster seats.
But the subsequent political environment changed rapidly.
The arrival of Andy Burnham as prime minister in July 2026 produced a recovery for Labour across Britain, including Scotland.
That recovery eventually weakened Reform’s position north of the border.
Reform falls behind again
By March 2026, Ipsos polling showed a very different picture.
Its Scotland Political Pulse survey, conducted among 1,096 adults between February 19 and 25, placed the SNP on 36 percent of the Scottish Parliament constituency vote. Labour was second on 20 percent, while Reform had fallen to 16 percent.
That represented a substantial change from the January YouGov figures.
The shift demonstrated why a single poll should not be interpreted as a definitive measure of long-term political support.
Reform’s rise was real in the polling data, but so was Labour’s subsequent recovery.
The Scottish electorate remained highly volatile.
The 2026 Scottish Parliament election
The eventual 2026 Holyrood election provided a much broader test than the individual polls that had preceded it.
Plaid Cymru was not a factor in Scotland, but the SNP, Labour, Reform, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Greens all competed in a political environment marked by significant voter movement.
The results demonstrated that the SNP remained central to Scottish politics, while Labour and Reform competed for second-place support.
The election also showed that Reform’s national rise did not automatically translate into dominance in Scotland.
Its performance nevertheless established the party as a significant part of the Scottish political conversation.
The latest evidence tells another story
By September 2026, the picture had changed again.
More in Common’s September MRP projected the SNP as the largest party in Scotland with 27 of the 57 Westminster seats. Labour was projected to win 18, while the Conservatives were on six and Reform UK on just one.
The model represented a major shift from More in Common’s July projection.
In July, the organisation had projected the SNP on 37 Scottish seats, Labour on five and Reform on six.
By September, Labour had gained considerably while Reform had fallen back.
More in Common said Labour’s Scottish vote share had risen by five points since July, while Reform’s had fallen by five points. The model therefore suggested that Labour’s recovery was occurring partly at the expense of both the SNP and Reform.
This is why the phrase “Reform overtakes Labour in Scotland” needs to be placed in its proper time frame.
It accurately describes an important earlier polling development, but it does not describe the latest Scottish projection.
Why Scotland matters to Reform
Despite the subsequent changes, Scotland remains strategically important to Reform UK.
Winning support north of the border would allow the party to present itself as a genuinely UK-wide political organisation rather than a movement whose strength is concentrated elsewhere.
The January YouGov figures were particularly useful for Reform because they showed that the party could attract voters who had previously backed both Labour and the Conservatives.
That cross-party movement is important in a fragmented political system.
Reform’s challenge is that Scotland has a political structure that differs significantly from England.
The constitutional question remains central, and the SNP continues to dominate the independence debate.
Reform’s strong unionist position therefore puts it directly into a political environment where questions of Scotland’s relationship with the rest of the UK are highly significant.
The SNP remains the central force
The biggest obstacle for Reform in Scotland remains the SNP.
Even after losing support compared with previous years, the SNP continues to command a substantial electoral base.
The September More in Common MRP projected 27 Westminster seats for the party, well ahead of every other party in Scotland.
The SNP’s position means that Reform cannot simply rely on dissatisfaction with Labour or the Conservatives.
To make a major breakthrough, it would need to compete with a party that has built an extensive political organisation and a distinctive Scottish national identity over decades.
This creates a different electoral challenge from the one Reform faces in many English constituencies.
Farage and the wider UK picture
The Scottish polling story also needs to be viewed alongside Reform’s changing national position.
Recent Westminster polling has become considerably tighter.
Ipsos’s September 10–15 survey put Labour on 27 percent, Reform on 23 percent and the Conservatives on 21 percent.
A September YouGov poll conducted on September 20–21 produced Labour on 23 percent, with Reform and the Conservatives both on 21 percent.
These figures show that Reform remains a major political force, but they do not establish a sustained national lead.
The latest More in Common MRP similarly projects Labour as the largest party with 250 seats, followed by Reform on 147, the Conservatives on 125 and the SNP on 27.
The Scottish figures are therefore part of a wider pattern of political volatility rather than an isolated Reform surge.
A changing Scottish electorate
Perhaps the most important development is the extent to which Scottish voters are becoming less predictable.
The movement of Labour voters towards Reform, the SNP and other parties shows that traditional party loyalties are no longer as secure as they once were.
The same applies to Conservative voters, many of whom have considered Reform as an alternative.
But the later recovery of Labour demonstrates that voter movement can work in the opposite direction.
Political support can change rapidly when leadership changes, national issues shift or voters reassess the parties competing for their support.
That volatility makes long-term conclusions difficult.
What the earlier Reform surge demonstrated
The period when Reform moved ahead of Labour in Scottish polling nevertheless mattered.
It demonstrated that Farage’s party could reach second place in a major Scottish voting-intention survey.
It also showed that some Scottish voters who had previously supported Labour and the Conservatives were willing to consider Reform.
For Labour, it highlighted the danger of assuming that the party’s 2024 recovery had permanently restored its Scottish position.
For Reform, it provided evidence that the party’s potential electorate could extend beyond its traditional areas of strength.
But subsequent polling showed that the position was not fixed.
By September, Labour had recovered substantially in Scotland while Reform had lost ground.
Scotland’s political future remains fragmented
The broader lesson is that Scottish politics in 2026 cannot be reduced to a simple contest between two parties.
The SNP remains a major force, Labour has recovered from a particularly weak position in some earlier projections, Reform has demonstrated significant potential but also substantial volatility, and the Conservatives continue to compete for support.
The result is an unusually fluid political environment.
For Farage, Scotland represents both an opportunity and a challenge.
The opportunity is clear: Reform has already demonstrated that it can attract significant support among Scottish voters.
The challenge is converting that support into sustained electoral strength in a political system dominated by questions of Scottish identity, devolution and independence.
The headline about Reform overtaking Labour therefore captures one important moment in the political story, but the subsequent evidence shows why caution is necessary.
Reform’s rise in Scotland was genuine enough to attract national attention. Yet Labour’s later recovery and the continuing strength of the SNP demonstrate that the Scottish electorate remains highly competitive and changeable.
For Nigel Farage, the Scottish question is therefore not simply about whether Reform can rise in one poll.
It is about whether the party can maintain support across multiple elections, constituencies and voting systems while competing against parties with deeply established Scottish identities.
The evidence from 2026 suggests that the political landscape remains unsettled — and that polling movements in Scotland can change significantly in a matter of months.
