Green Party leader Zack Polanski and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer (Image: pa)
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has suffered a massive blow after a new opinion poll suggested Labour might actually have fallen into fourth place with voters. The new survey, by polling company Findoutnow, suggests that Labour may now be less popular than Reform, the Conservatives and the Green Party.
The survey found 32% of voters would back Reform if a general election was held today, putting Nigel Farage’s party firmly in first place. It then put the Conservatives second, with 17% of the vote. This is an important result for Tory leader Kemi Badenoch, because some of her nervous MPs will be delighted by the idea that they are beating Labour – even if they are still behind Reform.
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But the next results are perhaps the most interesting, They show that Labour and the Green Party, which has a new leader in Zack Polanski, are both backed by 15% of voters. And when you look at the figures in more detail, the Greens are backed by 15.3% of voters – with Labour supported by 15.2%.
This won’t be enough to panic Labour MPs yet. The difference between the Labour and the Green Party, and even between Labour and the Conservatives, is within the “margin of error”, which is 2-3%. In other words, the polling companies always warn that they don’t know for sure how people will vote, and suggest that all the results could be up to 3% out.
Also, Findoutnow uses a slightly different method of conducting surveys to most other polling companies, although of course its always possible that their method is the best one. We can’t really judge that until a general election actually takes place.
Even so, it highlights a real concern for Labour – that the Green Party is winning support from left-wing voters who might otherwise back Labour, including some students, graduates and other more middle-class voters, at the same time as Reform is winning support from some more conservative-minded voters in industrial areas who also backed Labour in the past.
Sir Keir Starmer faces a huge dilemma as he attempts to fight off threats from two different directions. Some of his Labour colleagues fear he is going too far in trying to win over voters who could switch to Reform, for example by promising to crackdown on immigration, and may actually be hurting Labour’s chances with more liberal-minded voters who are more supportive of immigration.
Findoutnow also produces data showing average support for the parties over the past three weeks, and this shows Labour in second place, with 17% of the vote, Tories on 16% and Greens on 14%. However, it shows support for Labour has been falling since January, while support for the Green Party is rising.
Keir Starmer Is Completely Finished – You Won’t Believe New Poll Results
Keir Starmer’s political career reached a decisive turning point in 2026, but the latest polling offers a more complicated picture than the dramatic language of political headlines might suggest.
The former Labour leader is no longer Prime Minister. Starmer resigned as Labour leader and stepped down as Prime Minister in June 2026, bringing his period in Downing Street to an end. Andy Burnham subsequently became Labour leader and Prime Minister on July 20.
Yet new polling examining public attitudes towards Starmer and the Labour Party provides a striking picture of how dramatically his political standing deteriorated during his final months in office.
For Starmer personally, the numbers were particularly difficult.
For Labour, however, the story did not end with his resignation.
A dramatic final verdict on Starmer
YouGov’s final assessment of Starmer’s premiership found that only 16 per cent of Britons regarded his time in office as good or great.
By contrast, 51 per cent described his performance as poor or terrible. His final favourability figures were also deeply negative, with 28 per cent holding a favourable opinion compared with 64 per cent who viewed him unfavourably.
Those figures help explain the political pressure that developed around Starmer during the first half of 2026.
His government had won a large parliamentary majority at the 2024 general election. But the electoral coalition behind that victory proved difficult to maintain.
Labour subsequently suffered substantial losses in local and devolved elections. According to Sky News, Labour lost nearly 1,500 council seats in the English local elections and fell to third place in Wales. The party also suffered by-election defeats in Caerphilly and Gorton & Denton.
The deterioration eventually became impossible for the Labour leadership to ignore.
On June 22, Starmer announced his resignation as Labour leader. A subsequent timetable led to Andy Burnham taking over both the Labour leadership and the premiership.
What did voters think about his resignation?
YouGov conducted a snap poll immediately after Starmer announced his departure.
The result showed that 62 per cent of Britons believed he was right to resign, while 19 per cent thought he was wrong to do so.
Even among people who had voted Labour in the 2024 general election, 52 per cent believed Starmer was right to stand aside, compared with 28 per cent who thought he should have remained leader.
The survey therefore provides a clear indication of the political circumstances surrounding his departure.
However, it is important to distinguish between public opinion about a politician’s performance and the longer-term fortunes of their political party.
Starmer’s departure did not automatically mean that Labour’s electoral difficulties would continue indefinitely.
The Burnham effect
The most important development since Starmer left office has been the emergence of what polling organisations have described as a “Burnham bounce”.
Andy Burnham inherited a Labour Party that was performing extremely poorly in national polling.
Sky News reported that Labour’s support had fallen below 20 per cent during Starmer’s final weeks, something the party had not previously experienced in its modern polling history. Since Burnham became leader, however, Labour’s position has improved.
YouGov’s latest September analysis found that Labour’s average headline vote share had risen to 26 per cent in polls conducted during the month leading up to the party conference.
That represented a seven-point improvement from the low recorded before Starmer’s departure.
The latest individual polls reinforce the same trend.
An Opinium poll published on September 26 put Labour on 28 per cent, four points ahead of Reform UK on 24 per cent. The Conservatives were on 17 per cent, while the Liberal Democrats and Greens were each on 10 per cent.
A YouGov poll conducted on September 20–21 was somewhat closer, putting Labour on 23 per cent, with both Reform UK and the Conservatives on 21 per cent.
The difference between these surveys demonstrates how volatile the current political environment remains.
Starmer’s departure did not end Labour’s problems
Although Labour’s national position has improved, the party continues to face serious challenges.
YouGov’s September research into attitudes towards Labour found that public perceptions of the party remain substantially negative despite its improved vote share.
A majority still described Labour as out of touch, while negative perceptions also included questions about trustworthiness, strength and clarity of purpose.
This distinction is important.
A change of leader can alter voters’ perceptions of a party, but it does not automatically resolve disagreements about policy, taxation, public services, immigration, the economy or Britain’s relationship with Europe.
Burnham therefore inherited both an opportunity and a difficult political environment.
Reform UK remains a major factor
Another reason Labour’s position needs to be examined carefully is the continued strength of Reform UK.
Nigel Farage’s party has established itself as one of Britain’s three largest political forces in national polling.
In the latest YouGov survey, Reform was on 21 per cent, level with the Conservatives and two points behind Labour. However, the same poll showed Reform at its lowest YouGov voting-intention share since the tracker restarted in January 2025.
Opinium produced a somewhat different result, with Reform on 24 per cent compared with Labour’s 28 per cent.
These figures suggest that Reform remains highly competitive, but they do not establish a single uniform national trend.
The political competition is therefore no longer simply a Labour-versus-Conservative contest.
Labour, Reform and the Conservatives are competing for different groups of voters, while the Greens and Liberal Democrats can also affect individual constituency outcomes.
Starmer’s personal ratings compared with Burnham
The contrast between Starmer and his successor is particularly noticeable.
YouGov’s September favourability research found that 46 per cent of Britons viewed Burnham favourably, while 39 per cent viewed him unfavourably.
That gave the new Prime Minister a net favourability rating of +7.
The figures were very different from Starmer’s final rating.
YouGov recorded Starmer’s final favourability at 28 per cent positive and 64 per cent negative.
Burnham’s numbers should not, however, be interpreted as proof that Labour has permanently solved its political problems.
The September YouGov research also showed that Burnham’s negative rating had increased from the previous month. His positive rating remained relatively strong, but the movement indicated that the early honeymoon associated with a new prime minister could face challenges.
Why the headline is more complicated than it appears
The phrase “completely finished” is easy to use in political commentary, but it requires context.
If the statement refers to Starmer’s position as Prime Minister and Labour leader, the basic fact is straightforward: that chapter has already ended.
If it refers to the wider Labour political project, however, the latest polling does not support such a simple conclusion.
Labour’s support has recovered from its lowest point under Starmer. It currently leads Reform in several recent polls, although the size of that lead varies considerably between pollsters.
At the same time, the party’s underlying image remains weaker than its headline vote share might suggest.
The latest YouGov research found that 32 per cent of voters would consider voting Labour in a future election, an increase of seven points since May and the highest level recorded on that measure since September 2024.
That is significant because it indicates that Labour has regained some potential electoral reach since Starmer’s departure.
A political legacy still being debated
Starmer’s premiership will continue to be debated long after his resignation.
Supporters can point to the 2024 general election victory and the legislative and governmental changes delivered during his time in office. Critics can point to his final approval ratings, Labour’s poor electoral performances in 2026 and the pressure that eventually led to his departure.
Both parts of the record are necessary to understand what happened.
The most revealing numbers may therefore not be those showing that Starmer left office with deeply negative ratings. Those figures are already established.
The more interesting question is what happened afterwards.
The early polling under Burnham suggests that changing Labour’s leadership altered the party’s position significantly. Labour has moved from polling below 20 per cent in Starmer’s final weeks to the mid-to-high twenties in several September surveys.
That does not guarantee future electoral success. Nor does it erase the difficulties Labour continues to face.
But it does demonstrate that Starmer’s departure and Labour’s future are two related but separate political stories.
Keir Starmer’s time in Downing Street is over. The latest polling provides strong evidence that his personal standing deteriorated sharply before his resignation. Yet the same data also suggests that Labour has begun to recover under a new leader.
The next phase of British politics will therefore be less about whether Starmer can survive and more about whether Burnham can turn Labour’s improved polling position into sustained public support.
For now, the numbers show a party in transition rather than a political story that has already reached its final chapter.