Sir Keir Starmer needs to convince his MPs he is the best person to stop Nigel Farage becoming PM (Image: Dan Kitwood / Lucy North)

Time is running out for Sir Keir Starmer. Even the loyalist Labour MPs cannot stand by if their party stays below 20% in the polls and is overtaken by the Conservatives – and potentially the Greens as well. The Prime Minister is in a battle for survival. His friends, who last week briefed him that he would stand in a leadership contest, effectively fired a starting gun on this process.

Sir Keir now has to convince anxious Labour MPs he is the best person to fix the country’s glaring problems and keep their party in power. Whether he likes it or not, he is auditioning to stay in Number 10. Yes, it is extraordinary that the leader of a party which last year won 405 of the country’s 650 constituencies is in this position, but MPs fear for the future of Britain if Labour is ousted.

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In normal times, Labour activists would groan if the Tories won an election, hunker down and wait for their turn to return to power. Losing to Reform UK is a far more frightening prospect.

Labour MPs on the Left of the party are reportedly in early preparations for a leadership contest. Sir Keir will hate the idea that MPs are plotting instead of preparing to sell the merits of next week’s Budget to their constituents.

On Tuesday, he tried to stamp out disquiet in the ranks. According to Downing Street, he told the Cabinet that “distractions meant our focus shifted from where it mattered most – working every day in the service of the British people.” He said they needed to deliver change rather than “talk about ourselves”.

Sir Keir Starmer romped to victory in the 2020 leadership contest but now faces a greater challenge (Image: Getty)

Sir Keir and his closest allies devised a brilliant plan to win the 2020 Labour leadership contest and the 2024 General Election. However, he now needs a revival strategy to rescue both his premiership and his party. Otherwise, his most ambitious rivals will devise their very own plan for change.

One Thing Proves Keir Starmer Is Running Out of Time – and Nigel Farage Is Waiting

There was a point when Keir Starmer appeared to have time on his side.

Labour had won a huge parliamentary majority in the 2024 general election, giving Starmer the political authority to pursue his programme without the immediate threat of losing office. But within less than two years, that advantage had disappeared. In June 2026, Starmer resigned as Labour leader and prime minister after mounting political pressure, bringing his premiership to an early end.

That development has transformed the meaning of the political battle between Labour and Nigel Farage.

Farage is no longer waiting for Starmer to face a potential leadership crisis. The crisis already happened.

The more interesting question now is what the collapse of Starmer’s premiership tells us about the political environment in which Reform UK is operating.

Starmer entered Downing Street in July 2024 promising to provide stability after years of Conservative government. Labour’s landslide victory appeared to give him a substantial period in which to deliver its programme.

Instead, the government encountered difficulties remarkably quickly.

Economic pressures, unpopular policy decisions, arguments over taxation and spending, internal Labour disagreements and the rise of Reform all contributed to a political environment in which the government’s position became increasingly difficult.

Farage was one of the politicians most eager to exploit that environment.

Reform UK presented itself as an alternative to both Labour and the Conservatives, concentrating particularly on immigration, taxation, public services, national identity and dissatisfaction with Westminster politics.

The party’s performance in the 2026 local and devolved elections demonstrated that its support had become significant.

According to Sky News election analyst Professor Rob Ford, Reform gained more than 1,400 council seats in England in May 2026 and took control of 14 councils. It also won 34 of 96 seats in the Welsh Senedd election and 17 seats in Scotland.

Those results did not automatically translate into national government, but they demonstrated that Reform had established an electoral presence well beyond the traditional boundaries of Farage’s earlier political campaigns.

For Labour, that was an important warning.

Yet the relationship between Starmer’s departure and Reform’s fortunes is not straightforward.

Reform’s support had already begun to weaken before Starmer left office. Sky’s analysis found that Reform’s average poll share had fallen from the low thirties in August 2025 to the mid-twenties by August 2026. Farage’s own approval ratings also declined during the same period.

This is one of the most important developments in the current political landscape.

Farage has spent years building a political movement around dissatisfaction with established parties. But the collapse of one established leader does not automatically guarantee electoral success for Reform.

Voters can change their minds.

They can move between parties.

They can also support a new Labour leader without abandoning concerns that originally pushed them towards Reform.

That is precisely what appears to have happened following Starmer’s resignation.

Andy Burnham became prime minister after Starmer’s departure, and Labour subsequently experienced an improvement in several polling measures.

An Ipsos poll conducted between September 10 and 15 put Labour on 27 per cent and Reform on 23 per cent. The same poll found that 35 per cent of respondents preferred Burnham as prime minister, compared with 14 per cent for Farage.

Those figures should not be interpreted as a prediction of the next general election. They represent one poll conducted at one point in time, and public opinion can change considerably before voters next go to the polls.

Nevertheless, they demonstrate an important political development: Labour has not disappeared as a competitive force simply because Starmer’s premiership ended.

In fact, the leadership change may have altered the political landscape in ways that affect Reform.

The question is whether voters who were dissatisfied with Starmer were dissatisfied with Labour itself, or primarily with Starmer’s leadership and the direction of his government.

That distinction matters enormously.

If voters were mainly rejecting Starmer, then a new Labour leader has an opportunity to recover some of that support.

If voters were rejecting Labour more fundamentally, Reform could continue to benefit from dissatisfaction with the governing party.

Recent polling suggests that both dynamics may be present.

The September Ipsos research found that seven in ten respondents remained dissatisfied with the way the government was running the country, despite Labour’s lead over Reform. At the same time, Burnham’s personal satisfaction rating was substantially stronger than Starmer’s had been.

That creates a complicated situation for Farage.

On one hand, Reform remains a major political force.

On the other, the arrival of a new Labour leader appears to have changed the political conversation.

Farage can no longer simply attack Starmer.

He must now challenge a government under different leadership and convince voters that Reform’s policies offer something beyond dissatisfaction with the previous prime minister.

That is a more difficult political proposition.

It also explains why the coming years could be crucial for Reform.

The party has achieved major electoral gains, but its national support remains contested.

A September YouGov poll reported that the Conservatives had drawn level with Reform at 21 per cent, while Labour stood on 23 per cent. The poll also found that perceptions of Reform remained difficult, with significant numbers of voters expressing negative views about the party.

Another Ipsos survey found that only 22 per cent of British adults believed Reform was ready to form the next government, while 60 per cent disagreed.

Those figures illustrate the difference between being a successful challenger and being accepted as a governing alternative.

Farage has clearly demonstrated that he can attract substantial support.

The more difficult question is whether Reform can persuade enough voters that it has the organisation, policies and candidates required to govern nationally.

The party’s internal controversies have also created additional challenges.

Reform has experienced disputes involving candidates and regional leadership, while Farage has faced scrutiny over party finances and political donations. In September, Reform Wales again changed its leader after controversy surrounding previous officeholders.

Such developments matter because political parties seeking government are judged not only by their criticisms of opponents but also by their own organisation and conduct.

Farage therefore faces a political paradox.

The more successful Reform becomes, the more closely it will be scrutinised.

When Reform was a smaller protest-oriented movement, controversies could be presented as evidence of the political establishment targeting an outsider. As the party becomes a major electoral organisation, voters may instead ask whether it can manage institutions effectively.

That transition represents one of the biggest challenges in Reform’s development.

Meanwhile, Labour faces its own challenge.

Burnham has inherited a government that remains unpopular on several measures despite the improvement in Labour’s polling position. Ipsos found that only 27 per cent agreed that the government was competent, while 47 per cent disagreed.

The new prime minister therefore has an opportunity, but not a blank cheque.

He must demonstrate that Labour can translate its improved political position into changes that voters notice in everyday life.

Cost of living, public services, immigration, housing and economic growth are likely to remain central issues.

These are also precisely the areas in which Reform has attempted to build its political identity.

The competition is therefore not disappearing.

It is changing.

Under Starmer, Farage could portray Reform as a direct challenge to a Labour government that had become increasingly unpopular.

Under Burnham, Reform has to confront a Labour Party that appears to have regained some support while still facing considerable dissatisfaction.

That makes the political landscape more fluid than the original headline suggests.

The idea that Starmer was simply “running out of time” is now historical rather than current. His resignation has already answered that question.

But the larger issue remains unresolved: can Reform turn dissatisfaction with successive governments into durable national support?

The evidence so far provides arguments on both sides.

Reform has achieved substantial electoral gains and remains one of Britain’s most important political forces. But its polling has weakened from its previous highs, Farage’s personal ratings have declined, and voters remain divided over whether the party is ready for government.

At the same time, Labour has shown that changing leadership can alter its political position.

That does not guarantee future electoral success for Labour, nor does it settle Reform’s prospects.

British politics remains highly volatile.

The Conservatives are attempting to rebuild. The Greens and Liberal Democrats continue to compete for voters. Labour is operating under new leadership. Reform is attempting to move from insurgent movement to established national party.

And Nigel Farage is still waiting—not for Keir Starmer to leave Downing Street, because that has already happened, but for the next opportunity to persuade voters that Reform should play an even larger role in Britain’s political future.

The coming political battle will therefore be less about the fate of one former prime minister and more about what happens after him.

Starmer’s premiership has ended.

The debate that helped bring it down has not.