Robert Jenrick’s bombshell defection to Reform has sparked a frenzy across Westminster, with everyone asking who could be next to make the leap. There are now said to be four big-name MPs on defection watch, in nothing short of a nightmare for both Sir Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch.
Daily Express deputy editor Sam Lister said Tory MPs Gareth Bacon and John Hayes would both be on defection watch, as well as Labour lords Kate Hoey and Gisela Stuart. However, Gareth Bacon has since said there is “zero chance” of him defecting to Reform.
The former shadow justice secretary dramatically joined Nigel Farage’s insurgent party on Thursday, but only after being booted out of the Tories when plans for his defection were discovered by Mrs Badenoch. Westminster sources suggested the discovery of his resignation speech on an office photocopier caused his downfall. Now Express Deputy Editor Sam Lister has revealed which politicians could be next to make the jump – and the list makes grim reading for the Labour and Conservative leaderships.
Speaking on the Daily Expresso podcast, the paper’s former political editor said the defection was unprecedented in its brutality.
She said: “In that whole time I was over in Westminster, I’ve never seen anything like this.
“For a party leader to sack a member of their top team, but to do it publicly, to do it by video, to put it out by Twitter … I’ve never seen anything like that.”
Ms Lister revealed that Mrs Badenoch had “bounced” Mr Jenrick’s announcement by publicly sacking him first – a move that shattered the normal protocol around defections.
But the drama is far from over, with more MPs now firmly in Reform’s sights.
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Robert Jenrick’s defection has left both Sir Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch wondering who is next (Image: Daily Express)
John Hayes has been a thorn in the side of successive Tory leaderships (Image: Getty)
John Hayes – The veteran mischief-maker
Top of the watch list is veteran Tory John Hayes, MP for South Holland and The Deepings since 1997.
Ms Lister warned: “There are now two MPs who will now be clearly being watched like hawks by the Conservative Party whips, John Hayes, who is a mischief-maker of old in the Conservative Party.”
The 67-year-old Brexiteer has long been a thorn in the side of successive Tory leaderships and holds a 6,856 majority in his seat.
Sir John Hayes told the Express:”Robert Jenrick’s departure from the Conservative party is a great loss. He was the most outstanding shadow minister, being highly effective in the Commons and beyond, where he is widely admired. Notwithstanding recent events, I am sure that our friendship will continue to flourish. My lifelong battle for unapologetic, unbridled authentic conservatism continues.”
Gareth Bacon, right, pictured with Jonathan Gullis, who himself defected from the Tories to Reform (Image: Getty)
Gareth Bacon – The London rebel
Gareth Bacon, Tory MP for Orpington, in south-east London, is the second Conservative on high alert.
Ms Lister named him alongside Mr Hayes as one of two MPs Conservative whips will be watching “like hawks”.
Mr Bacon, who represents the London seat with a 5,118 majority, has previously clashed with party leadership over Brexit and immigration.
Mr Bacon told the Express there is “zero chance” of him ever defecting to Reform.
Gisela Stuart pictured with Boris Johnson during the Brexit campaign (Image: Getty)
Gisela Stuart – The Brexit heavyweight
On the Labour side, Ms Lister tipped veteran Brexiteer Gisela Stuart as a potential shock defector.
But there’s a catch – the former Labour MP for Birmingham Edgbaston stood down in 2017 and is no longer in Parliament.
Ms Lister said of potential Labour defections: “He [Farage] talked about a former MP. I would be amazed if any from the current lot jumped over, because they’re very drippy.”
She added: “I think you’ve got to look at the Brexiteers, so the kind of Gisela Stuart figures or Kate Hoey … It’s all quite retro.”
Kate Hoey has maintained strong ties with Reform UK (Image: Getty)
Kate Hoey – The Farage ally
Former Labour MP Kate Hoey, who represented Vauxhall until 2019, is another name in the frame.
The staunch Brexiteer worked closely with Mr Farage during the EU referendum campaign and has maintained strong ties with Reform UK.
Ms Lister explained: “My instinct would be to go back and look at the Brexiteers because they know him. You know, they’ve worked with Nigel for a long time.”
With Westminster in turmoil and both major parties haemorrhaging support in the polls, the defection floodgates could be about to open.
The 4 big names on Reform defection watch in nightmare for Starmer and Badenoch
The rapid growth of Reform UK has transformed the political landscape and placed pressure on both Labour and the Conservatives. After a series of high-profile defections to Nigel Farage’s party, attention has increasingly turned to the politicians who could potentially follow.
The headline describes the situation as a “nightmare for Starmer and Badenoch”, but that is political framing rather than an established outcome. What can be established is that Reform has attracted several prominent former Conservatives, while a number of other politicians have previously been identified by the media as possible targets.
The most significant moment came in January 2026, when Robert Jenrick was removed from Kemi Badenoch’s shadow cabinet and suspended from the Conservative Party after she said she had received evidence that he was preparing to defect. Within hours, Jenrick appeared alongside Farage and confirmed that he was joining Reform.
The episode immediately raised a question: who could be next?
1. Sir John Hayes
One of the most prominent names previously placed on the Reform watch list was Sir John Hayes.
Hayes is a veteran Conservative MP with long experience inside the party. He has held ministerial positions under Conservative governments and has also been closely associated with the party’s more traditional and socially conservative wing.
His name appeared on an 11-person list of Conservative MPs identified by The Independent shortly after Jenrick’s defection. However, Hayes explicitly rejected the suggestion that he intended to leave the Conservatives.
He said he would not defect and advised colleagues considering such a move to wait and see how relations between Reform and the Conservatives developed.
That statement is important because being placed on a “watch list” does not mean that a politician has agreed to defect.
Indeed, the subsequent record demonstrated how uncertain such lists could be. After Farage set a deadline around the May 2026 elections for Conservative politicians considering a move, most of the names identified by The Independent did not actually switch parties.
Hayes therefore remains an example of the distinction between speculation and a confirmed political move.
2. Esther McVey
Another prominent name mentioned was Esther McVey.
McVey is a well-known Conservative politician and former cabinet minister. She also attracted attention because of her reaction to Badenoch’s decision to remove Jenrick.
Rather than supporting the decision, McVey said she would have advised Badenoch not to sack him and warned that there could be a backlash.
That criticism made her particularly interesting in discussions about possible Conservative defections.
However, there is a major difference between criticising a party leader and leaving the party. McVey remained a Conservative, and later reporting confirmed that she was among the politicians who had stayed with the party rather than moving to Reform.
Her inclusion on a defection watch list therefore illustrates how quickly political speculation can become separated from reality.
3. Mark Francois
Mark Francois was another name included on the January watch list.
A veteran Conservative MP and prominent Eurosceptic, Francois had long been associated with the Brexit wing of the Conservative Party. His political views on Britain’s relationship with the European Union meant that commentators naturally considered him part of the group whose positions could overlap with Reform’s appeal.
Yet Francois publicly denied that he was preparing to defect.
According to The Independent, he had previously expressed frustration about Reform’s electoral performance because some Conservative colleagues had lost their seats. After his name appeared on the watch list, he rejected the idea that he was about to cross the parliamentary divide.
That denial was subsequently supported by events. Francois remained a Conservative after the period in which Reform had expected additional defections.
His case again demonstrates why “defection watch” should not be interpreted as confirmation.
4. Jacob Rees-Mogg
Jacob Rees-Mogg represents a somewhat different case.
Unlike the three sitting Conservative MPs above, Rees-Mogg had already lost his parliamentary seat at the 2024 general election. He remained a prominent Conservative voice, however, and his long association with Brexit made him one of the names repeatedly discussed in connection with Reform.
The Guardian identified him as one of the prominent figures who might potentially move to Farage’s party. It noted his long-standing links to the Brexit movement and the fact that he had previously proposed cooperation between the Conservatives and Farage’s political movement.
Rees-Mogg’s position is therefore particularly interesting because he would not face the same parliamentary considerations as a sitting MP.
At the same time, being repeatedly mentioned as a possible defector does not establish that he intended to join Reform.
This distinction became increasingly important as the initial wave of speculation failed to produce the mass movement some commentators had anticipated.
Why Jenrick changed the conversation
Robert Jenrick’s defection was different from the speculation surrounding these names because it actually happened.
Badenoch announced his removal after saying she had “irrefutable evidence” that he had been planning to leave the Conservatives in a manner designed to cause political damage. Farage subsequently confirmed Jenrick’s arrival at Reform, and Jenrick strongly criticised his former party.
The episode demonstrated that discussions about possible defections could quickly become politically consequential.
It also showed how complicated the relationship between Reform and the Conservatives had become.
Reform was attracting politicians who had previously occupied important positions inside the Conservative establishment. At the same time, many Conservatives remained opposed to joining Farage’s party despite sharing views with Reform on issues such as immigration, Brexit and the size of the state.
That tension has continued.
Farage’s deadline
One reason the defection watch became particularly intense was Farage’s public deadline.
He had urged Conservative politicians considering a move to make their decision before the May 2026 elections, arguing that after that point Reform would have less reason to accept additional Conservative defectors.
The deadline generated considerable speculation about a possible wave of departures.
But the eventual record was more limited.
Andrew Rosindell and Suella Braverman subsequently moved to Reform, while the other names on the 11-person watch list largely remained Conservatives. The Independent later reported that the expected flood of Tory defections did not materialise.
That experience is important when assessing any new list of possible defectors.
What about Labour?
The potential movement from Labour has also attracted attention.
Following Jenrick’s defection, Farage claimed that a “well known Labour figure” would join Reform. Sky News noted that Farage deliberately used the term “Labour figure” rather than “Labour MP”, leaving open the possibility that he was referring to a former politician or another prominent Labour-linked figure.
This was part of a broader effort by Reform to demonstrate that its recruitment ambitions extended beyond former Conservatives.
But again, a claim about a future defection is not the same as a confirmed change of party.
The wider political picture
The defection debate is taking place against a changing political environment.
A YouGov poll conducted on September 20 and 21, 2026 put Labour on 23%, with the Conservatives and Reform both on 21%. The Greens were on 14%, the Liberal Democrats on 12% and Restore Britain on 4%. The figures show a closely divided political field rather than a settled party system.
The political context has also changed since the January Jenrick episode. Andy Burnham is now prime minister, while Keir Starmer is a former prime minister. Kemi Badenoch remains Conservative leader and Nigel Farage leads Reform.
That means the significance of further defections cannot simply be understood through the political circumstances of January.
Reform’s organisational development has also brought new challenges. In Wales, for example, Dan Thomas stepped down as Reform’s Welsh leader after being arrested on suspicion of assault and controlling or coercive behaviour; he denied wrongdoing and was released on bail. On the same day, Reform Senedd member Sarah Cooper-Lesadd announced that she was joining Plaid Cymru.
Farage subsequently appointed Helen Jenner as the new Reform leader in Wales.
These developments show that political movement does not only happen in one direction.
The four names and what is actually known
The four names most relevant to the earlier Conservative defection watch were Sir John Hayes, Esther McVey, Mark Francois and Jacob Rees-Mogg. But their situations were not identical.
Hayes, McVey and Francois were sitting Conservative MPs who were reported as possible targets but denied plans to defect. Rees-Mogg was a former MP whose long-standing Brexit profile made him a recurring subject of speculation.
Most importantly, the later record showed that inclusion on a watch list did not automatically lead to a defection.
That is perhaps the central lesson from the Jenrick episode.
British politics has become increasingly fluid, and politicians can change parties. But rumours, private conversations, public disagreements and confirmed defections are four different things.
For Farage, recruiting established politicians remains one way of expanding Reform’s parliamentary experience and public profile. For Badenoch, retaining Conservative MPs remains important to maintaining the party’s parliamentary organisation. For Labour, the possibility of defections has a separate significance because Reform has also sought to attract supporters and figures from beyond the Conservative right.
Whether any additional high-profile politicians actually cross the divide depends on decisions that individual politicians make.
For now, the names on earlier watch lists should therefore be treated as part of the history of Reform’s recruitment campaign rather than as evidence of imminent defections. The political significance lies not only in who moves, but also in who decides to stay.