Farage plans London ‘earthquake’ in May (Image: Getty)

It was reported that the insurgent political party will be targeting the Conservative-held Boroughs of Bromley and Bexley, as well as the independently held Havering Council, and Labour-held Barking and Dagenham.

Mr Farage said that law and order in the city was “at the heart of our campaign.”

He said “crime is everywhere” and Sadiq’s record is one of “almost not caring about it.”

Mr Farage added that “87% of police stations in London closed under the Conservatives.”

The Reform UK leader said that he didn’t know “anybody in London” who hadn’t been a victim of crime.

Mr Farage also told the Daily Mail that he intends to adopt the “broken windows” strategy, which was used by former Republican Mayor of New York, Rudy Giuliani. Mr Giuliani was Mayor in the 1990s, and reduced crime across the city, taking what the Mail described as a “zero tolerance” to minor offences.

The Reform UK leader said that his party would introduce a “radical change” to how offences like shoplifting and mobile phone theft are handled. He said that “you can now shoplift with impunity” adding that Reform believed “every single shoplifting case should be prosecuted – every single one”.

In 2025 there were more than 530,000 cases of shoplifting reported in the year to March, Only 18% of cases lead to an individual being charged. The British Retail Consortium (BRC) said they believed there to have been over 20 million cases across the country.

Mr Farage said that he admired Mr Giuliani and added that during his time working in the US, he “saw the most dangerous city in America become the safest city in America. We want to model ourselves on that.”

A spokesman for the Mayor of London rejected Mr Farage’s claims, saying there had been “22,000 fewer offences across the capital in the last year”.

The spokesman said: “There are some politicians and commentators who continue to denigrate London and talk our great city down, but the facts are showing a very different picture.”

They added that burglary, personal robbery, theft and vehicle crime had all fallen, with violence with injury and gun crime also down.

But they acknowledged “there is still more to do” and said the Mayo would “continue to work with businesses, communities and the police to build on these reductions to deliver a safer London for everyone”.

“There is a genuine collapse in the Labour vote across the country,” Mr Farage told the Daily Mail.

Local elections are due to take place in May 2026, with the next Mayoral election not scheduled until 2028.

Both the Mayor has been approached for comment.

Panic for Sadiq Khan as Nigel Farage Has London in His Sights

Nigel Farage has made London an increasingly important target for Reform UK, putting the party on a direct political collision course with Mayor Sadiq Khan ahead of the 2028 London mayoral election.

The contest is still some way away, but Reform has already selected its candidate. In January 2026, Farage announced Westminster City councillor Laila Cunningham as the party’s candidate for mayor, signalling that Reform intends to build a sustained campaign in the capital rather than treat London as a secondary battleground.

For Khan, who has served as London’s mayor since 2016 and won a third term in 2024, the development creates a new political challenge. The issue is not simply the identity of Reform’s candidate. Farage himself has made clear that he intends to place London at the centre of the party’s wider political strategy.

That strategy has already produced a strong reaction from Labour and other parties, particularly over crime, immigration, housing, transport and the direction of the capital.

Farage turns his attention to London

Reform’s decision to select Cunningham early was significant because it gave the party a visible figurehead more than two years before the 2028 mayoral contest.

At the January announcement, Reform presented Cunningham as a candidate focused heavily on crime and public safety. She said she wanted to rewrite London’s police and crime plan and abolish the Ultra Low Emission Zone, or ULEZ.

Farage used the announcement to argue that London needed political change.

The Reform leader has repeatedly portrayed crime and disorder as central concerns for London voters. In April, he specifically targeted mothers in the capital, arguing that concerns about safety and children’s welfare could become important issues during the local elections.

The argument has been strongly disputed by Labour and other parties, which have accused Reform of presenting an excessively negative picture of London.

That disagreement is likely to remain central to the 2028 campaign.

Khan prepares for another contest

Khan has already indicated that he expects to face Reform.

In February, he told the London Standard that he had effectively begun thinking about his 2028 campaign. He said that once the field of candidates was established, he would have a strategy for dealing with Reform as well as Count Binface, another potential candidate.

Khan’s comments demonstrate that Reform’s challenge is not being ignored at City Hall.

The mayor also has a substantial electoral record in the capital. He won a third term in May 2024, receiving around 1.09 million votes, according to reporting on that election.

However, a future election will take place under different political circumstances.

London’s political landscape has become increasingly fragmented, with Labour, Conservatives, Greens, Liberal Democrats and Reform all competing for different groups of voters.

That makes the 2028 contest difficult to interpret through the results of previous mayoral elections alone.

Reform’s performance in London

Reform’s ambitions received some encouragement from the 2026 local elections, when the party won its first London council.

The result demonstrated that Reform could establish a local-government presence in the capital. At the same time, the party did not make uniform gains across London, meaning its performance was geographically uneven.

That distinction matters for the mayoral election.

A London mayoral election is conducted across the entire capital, rather than being decided by individual borough council victories. A party therefore needs to build support across a much wider electorate.

Reform’s performance in individual boroughs provides evidence of support in particular areas, but it does not by itself determine what will happen in the mayoral contest.

A new poll adds another dimension

A poll conducted by Savanta for the Mile End Institute at Queen Mary University of London, reported in September 2026, showed Labour on 33%, Reform UK on 20%, the Conservatives on 18%, the Greens on 14% and the Liberal Democrats on 10% when respondents were asked about the London mayoral race.

The poll was notable because Reform’s 20% placed it second in the reported voting-intention figures, ahead of the Conservatives and Greens. The findings were presented as evidence that Cunningham could potentially become an important contender in the 2028 contest.

However, this was one poll at one point in time, not an election result or a definitive forecast.

There are also more than 18 months between the reported polling and the scheduled 2028 mayoral election. Voter preferences can change considerably during such a period, particularly when candidates, manifestos and campaign issues have not yet been fully established.

Crime becomes a central battleground

Crime is one of the main areas where Reform has attempted to differentiate itself from Labour.

Cunningham has presented herself as a law-and-order candidate, arguing that London needs a more aggressive approach to crime. Reform has also criticised Khan’s record on policing and public safety.

Khan and Labour have rejected the broader portrayal of London as a city in collapse.

The disagreement illustrates an important feature of the coming campaign: the same set of statistics can be interpreted very differently depending on the political argument being made.

Official crime figures provide one source of evidence, while residents’ perceptions of safety provide another. A campaign based on crime therefore involves both measurable offences and questions about how safe people feel in their communities.

Reform’s strategy is to make those concerns politically prominent.

The ULEZ battle

Transport and environmental policy could be another major dividing line.

Cunningham has pledged to scrap ULEZ if elected.

ULEZ has been one of Khan’s most controversial policies, particularly in parts of outer London where motorists have expressed opposition to the charges and restrictions.

Supporters of the scheme have argued that it is designed to improve air quality and reduce harmful emissions. Opponents have focused on the financial impact on drivers and the broader question of whether City Hall should impose restrictions on private vehicles.

The issue has therefore developed into a wider argument about London’s transport priorities and the balance between environmental policy and the cost of driving.

Reform’s decision to make ULEZ a central campaign issue provides the party with a clear contrast with Khan.

Immigration and the capital

Immigration is another subject likely to feature heavily.

Farage has made opposition to illegal migration one of Reform’s central political themes nationally, and the issue has also appeared prominently in its London campaign.

However, the party’s messaging has generated debate even within its own campaign.

Following the 2026 local elections, Cunningham criticised the use of the phrase “mass deportation”, arguing that Reform needed to make clear that its policy referred to illegal migrants and warning that the wording could alienate some London voters.

Her comments illustrate the challenge facing Reform in the capital.

London has a highly diverse population, and a national immigration message may have different political effects in London than elsewhere in Britain.

For Reform, the challenge is therefore not simply to make immigration a prominent issue but to explain how its policies would apply within the specific circumstances of the capital.

Farage’s broader London strategy

Farage’s interest in London extends beyond the mayoral contest.

Before the May 2026 local elections, he repeatedly argued that Reform could make significant gains in London boroughs. He specifically identified Havering as an area where he expected the party to perform strongly.

He has also discussed the political relationship between outer London and the Greater London Authority. In one reported intervention, Farage suggested that some residents in boroughs such as Bromley, Havering and Dagenham did not identify strongly with London and might eventually support proposals for greater separation from the capital’s political structures.

Whether such ideas gain broader support remains an open political question.

But they demonstrate that Reform’s London strategy is about more than City Hall itself.

The party is attempting to establish a political identity in the capital by combining local government campaigning with national issues such as crime, immigration and taxation.

The challenge for Khan

For Khan, the emergence of Reform creates another competitive force in an already crowded political field.

Labour cannot assume that previous electoral support will automatically transfer to a future mayoral campaign.

At the same time, Reform faces its own challenge: converting national recognition for Farage into sustained support for its London candidate.

The 2028 contest will ultimately be decided by London voters, and there is considerable time for political circumstances to change before polling day.

Khan has already signalled that he intends to contest the political battle directly. Cunningham, meanwhile, has begun building her profile as Reform’s London candidate.

A campaign already taking shape

The political significance of Farage’s London strategy is therefore becoming clearer even before the formal mayoral campaign begins.

Reform has identified the capital as an important electoral target. It has selected a candidate, begun campaigning on crime and transport, and established a political narrative centred on dissatisfaction with the current direction of London.

Khan remains a powerful political figure in the capital and has already indicated that he expects to defend his record and challenge Reform directly.

The coming contest is consequently likely to focus on competing visions of London’s future rather than on a single issue.

Crime, policing, transport, housing, immigration, environmental policy and the cost of living could all become significant themes.

The early polling provides an indication of the current political landscape, but it cannot determine the eventual result. With the 2028 election still ahead, candidates have time to change their messages, parties can alter their strategies, and voters’ priorities can shift.

What is already clear is that Nigel Farage has placed London firmly within Reform UK’s political ambitions. Whether that strategy ultimately reshapes the capital’s political landscape will depend on how the campaign develops and, ultimately, how Londoners vote.

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