According to the new survey, carried out for The i Paper by BMG, the Greens are also strengthening their vote share with 13% saying they would vote for the environmental outfit. The Lib Dems scored slightly worse, with 11% saying they would back Sir Ed Davey’s party.

Jack Curry, pollster at BMG, told The i Paper the polling results showed an “increasingly fractured” political landscape.

The SNP remained well in front of the pack in the poll, on 34% and 29% respectively.

But that represents a substantial drop from the 48% and 40% support it enjoyed in the last Holyrood election in 2021.

Elsewhere, the Conservatives sunk to 10% support in constituencies and 11% in the regional list, according to Thursday’s poll.

Reform Smashes Labour with 12-Point Poll Lead – Conservatives Plummet

Reform UK has continued to attract intense attention after one national poll showed Nigel Farage’s party holding a remarkable 12-point lead over Labour, with the Conservatives falling even further behind. The figures offered a dramatic snapshot of Britain’s increasingly fragmented political landscape and raised fresh questions about the strength of support for the traditional parties.

The poll, conducted by BMG, gave Reform a substantial advantage over both Labour and the Conservatives. According to the survey, Reform stood at 35 per cent, Labour at 23 per cent and the Conservatives at 20 per cent. The Greens recorded 13 per cent, while the Liberal Democrats were on 11 per cent.

A result of this scale would represent a major shift in British politics if it were repeated at a general election. Reform’s support would be considerably higher than the level achieved by the party at the 2024 general election, while Labour and the Conservatives would both be well below their traditional levels of support.

However, the poll should be viewed as a snapshot rather than a prediction. Other surveys conducted around the same period produced substantially different results. Ipsos, for example, found Labour four points ahead of Reform in a survey conducted from September 10 to 15, with Labour on 27 per cent and Reform on 23 per cent. The Conservatives were on 21 per cent.

The contrast between these surveys demonstrates just how volatile British public opinion has become.

A Dramatic Polling Picture

The 12-point Reform lead nevertheless attracted significant attention because it reflected the party’s broader rise over recent years.

Nigel Farage has repeatedly argued that traditional political loyalties are weakening. Reform has attempted to attract voters from both sides of Britain’s conventional political divide, particularly people who feel dissatisfied with the performance of successive governments.

The party’s strongest themes have included immigration, taxation, government spending, welfare reform and Britain’s relationship with the European Union.

Rather than presenting itself simply as another conservative party, Reform has attempted to portray itself as a challenge to the political establishment as a whole.

That message has allowed it to attract voters who previously supported different parties.

Some former Conservative voters have moved towards Reform because of concerns about immigration, taxation and the size of government. At the same time, Reform has also attempted to appeal to working-class voters who have historically supported Labour.

This cross-party appeal is one of the reasons the party has become increasingly important in national polling.

Labour Under Pressure

For Labour, a poll showing Reform 12 points ahead would represent a serious warning.

Labour won a large parliamentary majority in the 2024 general election, but its subsequent political position has changed considerably. Governments can move from electoral dominance to political difficulty surprisingly quickly when voters become dissatisfied with economic conditions, public services or government performance.

The current Labour government is led by Andy Burnham, who became prime minister after Keir Starmer’s resignation in June 2026.

Burnham’s government therefore faces the difficult task of establishing its own political identity while dealing with problems inherited from the previous administration.

The latest polling evidence is mixed. Ipsos found that Labour retained a four-point advantage over Reform in September, with 27 per cent compared with 23 per cent. The same survey found that seven in ten people remained dissatisfied with how the government was running the country.

This combination is politically important. A party can lead in voting intention while still facing widespread dissatisfaction with the government.

It means that polling numbers alone do not necessarily reveal how voters feel about the wider political situation.

Conservatives Face Their Own Challenge

The Conservatives have faced an equally difficult period.

Once one of Britain’s two dominant governing parties, the Conservatives have seen substantial support move towards Reform.

The 12-point BMG poll placed them at just 20 per cent, behind both Reform and Labour.

However, other polling suggests that the Conservative position may be recovering in some surveys.

A More in Common poll reported on September 23 put Labour at 26 per cent, the Conservatives at 23 per cent and Reform at 22 per cent. This represented a very different picture from the BMG survey, with the Conservatives narrowly ahead of Reform.

A YouGov survey conducted on September 20 and 21 also placed the Conservatives and Reform level at 21 per cent, with Labour narrowly ahead at 23 per cent.

The contrast is striking.

Rather than showing one settled political order, the polls demonstrate a three-way contest in which relatively small movements in support can change the positions of the major parties.

Why Reform Has Become So Powerful

Reform’s growth has been closely associated with Farage’s political strategy.

Immigration remains one of the party’s most important issues. Farage has repeatedly attacked successive governments over illegal Channel crossings and has called for significantly tougher immigration controls.

The party has also sought to distinguish itself through economic policies focused on reducing government spending and cutting selected taxes.

Welfare reform has become another major issue.

Reform politicians have argued that welfare spending needs to be reduced and more tightly targeted. Robert Jenrick, one of the party’s senior figures, has advocated substantial reductions in welfare expenditure.

The combination of immigration and economic concerns has helped Reform build support among voters who believe that mainstream parties have failed to address issues that matter to them.

Yet Reform’s growth has also brought greater scrutiny.

As the party has become larger and more influential, its finances, candidates and internal organisation have received considerably more attention.

Recent controversies concerning political donations and alleged foreign funding have also created challenges for Farage and his colleagues.

The Importance of Political Organisation

A high national polling figure does not automatically translate into parliamentary seats.

Britain uses first-past-the-post elections for Westminster. This means that a party’s geographical distribution of support is crucial.

A party receiving 30 per cent nationally could still struggle to win a large number of seats if its support is spread relatively evenly across constituencies.

Conversely, concentrated support can produce substantial parliamentary representation.

Reform therefore needs more than national popularity. It needs strong candidates, local campaign organisations and sufficient support in individual constituencies.

Farage has increasingly focused on building Reform’s organisational capacity.

The party has sought to recruit campaign staff, strengthen its local structures and prepare for future elections.

Financial resources can help with that process, but money alone cannot guarantee electoral success.

A Changing Conservative-Reform Relationship

The relationship between Reform and the Conservatives remains particularly significant.

For many years, Reform and its predecessors have competed for voters on the right of British politics.

However, Reform has increasingly presented itself as an alternative to the Conservatives rather than simply a pressure group.

That creates a difficult strategic problem for Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch.

The Conservatives need to recover voters who have moved to Reform while also appealing to people who may not support Farage’s approach.

If the Conservatives move too close to Reform, they risk losing voters who prefer a more traditional Conservative approach. If they move too far away, they risk allowing Reform to dominate among voters concerned about immigration, taxation and government spending.

The September polling illustrates how competitive this battle has become.

Labour’s Challenge

Labour faces a different problem.

Its traditional coalition has changed substantially over recent elections.

The party needs support among younger voters, urban voters and working-class communities while also competing with the Greens and Liberal Democrats in some areas.

Reform has attempted to make significant gains among working-class voters, particularly those who believe Labour has moved away from their economic or cultural concerns.

That presents Labour with a difficult balancing act.

The party must defend its existing support while attempting to win back voters who have become disillusioned.

Polling Volatility

The biggest lesson from the recent figures is perhaps the degree of volatility.

A BMG poll can show Reform 12 points ahead of Labour, while Ipsos can show Labour four points ahead of Reform around the same period.

A More in Common survey can then place the Conservatives ahead of Reform.

These differences should not simply be treated as contradictions. Polls are conducted at different times, with different samples, methodologies and weighting systems.

A single poll can therefore provide useful information without being representative of the entire national picture.

Polling averages are often more useful for identifying broad trends.

One tracker based on a seven-poll moving average recently placed Labour on 26.6 per cent, Reform on 23.6 per cent and the Conservatives on 19.6 per cent. It showed Labour leading Reform by three points rather than trailing by 12.

That broader measure illustrates why the headline BMG result should be interpreted cautiously.

The Political Battle Ahead

Even so, Reform’s presence at the top of some polls is significant.

The party has moved from being a relatively small political force to one of the central players in British national politics.

Farage has succeeded in keeping Reform at the centre of debates over immigration, taxation, welfare and government spending.

But the party now faces the same challenge that confronts every growing political organisation: turning protest into a detailed programme for government.

Voters may support Reform because they are dissatisfied with Labour or the Conservatives, but eventually the party must answer practical questions about how its policies would operate.

How much would its spending cuts save?

Which taxes would be reduced?

How would immigration policy be implemented?

What would happen to public services?

How would Britain manage its international relationships?

These questions become increasingly important as Reform presents itself as a potential governing party.

What the Poll Really Shows

The 12-point lead is therefore best understood as evidence of the volatility of British politics rather than a guaranteed picture of the next election.

The wider polling landscape is considerably closer.

Labour has led some recent surveys. Reform has led others. The Conservatives have also moved ahead of Reform in at least one recent poll.

What is consistent is that none of the traditional parties can assume that voters will remain loyal.

Reform’s rise has disrupted the old two-party structure and forced Labour and the Conservatives to respond to a new competitor.

For Labour, the priority is demonstrating that the new government can deliver results and rebuild public confidence.

For the Conservatives, the challenge is recovering support while defining their political identity.

For Reform, the challenge is maintaining momentum while proving that it can operate as a serious national political organisation.

The next election will ultimately be decided by voters, not by any individual opinion poll.

Until then, the changing numbers provide a picture of a political system in flux.

The most striking feature is not simply that Reform can lead Labour by 12 points in one survey. It is that Britain’s political landscape has become unpredictable enough for such a result to be taken seriously.

The Conservatives’ decline, Labour’s vulnerability and Reform’s rise have created a three-way contest that would have been difficult to imagine only a few years ago.

The political battle is therefore no longer simply about which traditional party will govern Britain.

It is increasingly about whether Reform can turn its growing support into lasting political influence, whether Labour can rebuild its position, and whether the Conservatives can recover from years of electoral and political pressure.

The polls provide snapshots of that changing landscape.

The eventual electoral verdict, however, will come from the voters themselves.

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