The Conservatives have 10% support in constituencies and 11% in the regional list.

The Scottish Greens are on 9% in constituencies and 12% on the list, while the Lib Dems are on 10% and 9% respectively.

The poll is a blow to Sir Keir Starmer, who is facing questions over his leadership ahead of the May elections, which are expected to be a bloodbath for Labour.

Reform UK Surges Ahead of Labour in New Scottish Poll Ahead of Crunch Election

Reform UK’s rapid rise in Scotland has become one of the most closely watched developments in British politics, with polling showing the party competing strongly with Labour ahead of the 2026 Scottish Parliament election. A YouGov survey reported in April placed Reform UK ahead of Scottish Labour, while the Scottish National Party remained clearly in front.

The figures were significant because Reform had previously enjoyed only a limited presence in Scottish electoral politics. The party’s emergence as a serious competitor for second place represented a change in the political landscape and created additional pressure on Labour and the Conservatives.

According to the YouGov figures reported in April, Reform was backed by 20% of voters for both the constituency and regional votes, while Labour stood at 15% on each measure. The SNP remained ahead with 34% for constituency voting and 29% for the regional list. The Conservatives were on 10% and 11%, respectively.

These numbers immediately attracted attention because Labour has historically been one of the dominant parties in Scotland. Although the SNP has transformed Scottish politics over the past two decades, Labour previously held a powerful position across much of the country.

Reform’s growth has introduced another dimension to that competition.

A Changing Scottish Political Landscape

Scotland’s political system is different from Westminster elections. The Scottish Parliament has 129 members, elected through a combination of constituency and regional votes. Voters therefore have two opportunities to support parties, and polling percentages do not translate directly into parliamentary seats.

This makes the interpretation of individual polls particularly important.

A party can perform differently on the constituency ballot and the regional list, and the final number of MSPs depends on how votes are distributed geographically as well as on overall support.

Nevertheless, the polling trend demonstrated that Reform had moved into territory previously occupied mainly by Labour and the Conservatives.

The party’s Scottish leader, Malcolm Offord, argued that the numbers reflected what Reform representatives were hearing from voters during campaigning. He also attacked Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar and presented Reform as an alternative to the established parties.

Such statements are political arguments rather than independent assessments, but they illustrate the strategy Reform was pursuing.

The party wanted to portray itself as a new force challenging both the Scottish government and the traditional opposition parties.

Why Reform Has Gained Support

Immigration has been one of Reform UK’s central political issues across Britain, and the party has used similar arguments in Scotland.

However, polling and post-election research indicate that Reform’s Scottish support cannot be explained by immigration alone.

Government performance, the NHS, taxation, the economy and constitutional questions have all featured prominently in Scottish political debate.

The 2026 election therefore represented a broader test of voter attitudes toward the established political parties.

For Reform, the challenge was to convert dissatisfaction with other parties into sustained support for its own candidates.

For Labour, the challenge was particularly difficult because the party was already dealing with competition from several directions.

The SNP remained the dominant party on the pro-independence side, while the Conservatives and Reform competed for some voters who preferred parties supporting the United Kingdom.

The Scottish Greens and Liberal Democrats also remained significant competitors in particular regions.

Labour Under Pressure

The rise of Reform created an uncomfortable situation for Scottish Labour.

The party had already experienced a long-term decline in Scotland following the rise of the SNP. At Westminster, Labour’s Scottish representation collapsed dramatically during the SNP’s breakthrough in 2015, before recovering in the 2024 general election.

Holyrood presented a different challenge.

Labour had to compete with the SNP on public services, the economy and Scotland’s constitutional future while also defending itself against parties seeking votes from the centre, the left and the right.

Reform’s rise therefore threatened to divide the non-SNP vote even further.

If Reform attracted voters who might previously have supported Labour or the Conservatives, the consequences could be significant in closely contested constituencies.

This was one reason the party’s polling performance received so much attention before polling day.

The SNP Remained in Front

Despite Reform’s rise, the polling did not show the party challenging the SNP for first place.

The YouGov survey reported in April placed the SNP at 34% on the constituency vote and 29% on the regional list. Reform followed with 20% on both, while Labour was on 15%.

Other polling also showed the SNP maintaining a substantial lead.

Ipsos reported in March that the SNP remained ahead while the contest for second place was much closer. The polling organisation subsequently described the Scottish race as one in which the SNP maintained a clear advantage, with Labour and Reform competing more closely behind.

This distinction is important. The phrase “Reform surges ahead of Labour” refers primarily to the battle for second place rather than to a challenge for overall control of Holyrood.

The Importance of the Second-Place Battle

The competition between Reform and Labour mattered because Scotland’s political system has historically been dominated by a smaller group of established parties.

If Reform could finish ahead of Labour, it would give the party greater parliamentary visibility and potentially reshape the political debate.

It could also place pressure on the Conservatives, who had traditionally been the principal unionist opposition to the SNP.

Reform’s message was aimed partly at voters who wanted stronger opposition to independence and greater emphasis on immigration and national political issues.

The Conservatives, meanwhile, were attempting to retain voters concerned about taxes, government spending and the Union.

Labour had to defend its position against both.

This created a complicated electoral contest in which several parties were competing for different sections of the electorate.

A Wider UK Trend

Reform’s Scottish rise also formed part of a wider expansion of the party across Britain.

In the 2026 local elections, Reform made substantial gains in England, while the party was also competing strongly in Wales. Early results showed hundreds of Reform gains, particularly in areas where Labour had previously been strong.

The Scottish situation was therefore being watched as a test of whether Reform’s support could extend beyond England.

For years, Farage’s political campaigns had been particularly strong in parts of England. Scotland presented a different political environment, with the independence debate occupying a much larger role.

A successful Reform campaign in Scotland would consequently demonstrate that the party could compete in a political system with different priorities and electoral rules.

The Independence Question

The biggest difference between Scottish and English politics remains the constitutional question.

The SNP continues to support Scottish independence, while Reform strongly supports the United Kingdom.

Labour and the Conservatives are also unionist parties, although they approach the constitutional debate differently.

For Reform, the Union provides an important foundation for its Scottish message.

However, simply opposing independence is unlikely to be sufficient to win large numbers of votes.

Scottish voters also place considerable importance on public services, the NHS, taxation, housing and the performance of the Scottish government.

Reform therefore needed to demonstrate how its broader programme would address those concerns.

Polls Are Not Results

The polling figures also needed to be treated cautiously.

The YouGov numbers represented voting intentions at a particular point before the election. They did not guarantee that Reform would finish ahead of Labour on election day.

Indeed, other polls produced different results.

Ipsos’ final Scottish Parliament election poll, conducted before the May election, described the SNP as clearly ahead while the race for second remained competitive.

This variation demonstrates why individual polls should not be treated as definitive.

Sampling methods, fieldwork dates, turnout assumptions and the wording of questions can all affect polling results.

The eventual election results provide a more concrete measure of electoral support.

Reform’s Parliamentary Breakthrough

The subsequent 2026 Scottish Parliament election confirmed that Reform had become a substantial force in Holyrood.

According to YouGov’s post-election analysis, Reform won 17 MSPs, the same number as Labour. The SNP remained the largest party.

That result was significant because it demonstrated that Reform’s polling strength had translated into parliamentary representation.

The party was no longer simply a Westminster-focused organisation seeking support in Scotland. It now had a substantial group of MSPs at Holyrood.

The result also underlined the fragmentation of Scottish politics.

Instead of a straightforward SNP-versus-Labour contest, voters were now faced with a much wider range of competitive parties.

What It Means for Labour

For Labour, Reform’s rise represents an additional challenge in rebuilding its Scottish presence.

The party’s 17 MSPs marked a historically difficult result compared with its earlier position in Scottish politics.

Labour now has to compete against the SNP for voters concerned about public services and the constitution, while also facing Reform among voters attracted to its positions on immigration, taxation and government reform.

The party’s future strategy will therefore be closely watched.

A key question is whether Labour can recover voters who have moved elsewhere or whether Scotland’s political fragmentation has become a permanent feature of the electoral landscape.

What It Means for Reform

For Reform UK, Scotland offers both an opportunity and a challenge.

The opportunity is clear: the party has demonstrated that it can win substantial support in a country where it previously had a relatively limited political base.

The challenge is maintaining that support.

Winning 17 seats in one election creates a much larger parliamentary responsibility. Reform’s MSPs will now be judged on their participation in Holyrood, their policies and their ability to represent their constituencies.

The party must also develop a distinct Scottish political programme rather than relying entirely on issues associated with Westminster politics.

Immigration and the Union may remain important themes, but voters will also expect positions on Scotland’s NHS, education, housing, infrastructure and public finances.

A New Political Contest

The rise of Reform has changed the structure of Scottish politics.

The SNP remains the largest party, but Labour can no longer assume that it will automatically occupy the main position behind the SNP among voters seeking an alternative.

The Conservatives have also lost ground, while Reform has emerged as a major competitor.

The result is a more fragmented political environment in which several parties have meaningful parliamentary representation.

For voters, this means more choices.

For the parties, it means fewer votes can be taken for granted.

And for Reform UK, Scotland provides a test of whether its rapid expansion can become a lasting political presence.

The original poll that placed Reform ahead of Labour therefore captured an important moment in Scotland’s political transformation. It showed that Reform was capable of challenging Labour for second place and forced established parties to take the party’s Scottish campaign seriously.

But the subsequent election also showed why polling and electoral outcomes must be distinguished.

The SNP remained the largest force, while Reform and Labour finished level on 17 MSPs.

The broader story is therefore not simply that one party overtook another in one poll. It is that Scotland’s political system has become increasingly competitive and fragmented, with Reform now firmly established as one of the parties capable of shaping the debate at Holyrood.

For Scottish Labour, that means rebuilding support in a much more crowded political field. For the Conservatives, it means defending their remaining position against a new unionist competitor. For the SNP, it means governing while facing challenges from multiple directions.

And for Reform UK, the task is no longer merely to announce that it is rising.

It must now demonstrate that the support measured in polling can be turned into sustained political influence in Scotland.

The 2026 election has already provided one answer: Reform is now a significant presence in the Scottish Parliament. The next question is how durable that presence will become.

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