Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer. (Image: Getty)
The Greens have leapfrogged Labour to second place in a new poll in the latest nightmare for Sir Keir Starmer. A YouGov survey puts Zack Polanki’s party on 21%, up four points from the week before.
The boost comes after the left-wing party’s victory in the crunch Gorton and Denton by-election, where Labour came a humiliating third. Nigel Farage‘s Reform UK is in the lead with 23%, down one point from the previous week.
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Green Party leader Zack Polanski. (Image: Getty)
Labour and the Conservatives are in joint third place on 16% each, both down two points.
It is the lowest score the pollster has ever recorded for Labour, and the second time the Tories have sunk to that level.
Meanwhile, the Lib Dems are unchanged on 14% in the poll of more than 2,000 people carried out on Sunday and Monday.
The Prime Minister last night insisted a “mainstream majority” of voters do not want Mr Farage or Mr Polanski to be PM as he addressed Labour MPs following the party’s by-election defeat
Meanwhile, Kemi Badenoch insisted a Tory government would tackle the rise of “separatism” in the UK by uniting people “around a common culture and a common identity” in a speech yesterday.
Concerns have been raised about people forcing family members to vote in a certain way in the Gorton and Denton by-election.
Nigel Farage warned it was a victory for “sectarian voting and cheating” after Green Party candidate Hannah Spencer won the seat.
He insisted Reform’s candidate would have won last week’s by-election if only British citizens had voted and has pledged electoral reforms if he enters No 10.
Nightmare for Keir Starmer as Greens Overtake Labour in Bombshell Poll
A fresh poll has highlighted the growing challenge facing Labour from the Green Party, with the Greens moving ahead of Labour in one important section of the electorate.
The figures have renewed questions about the future of Britain’s centre-left vote and whether the Green Party can turn its recent momentum into a sustained electoral challenge.
However, the picture is more complicated than the headline suggests. National voting-intention polls continue to show Labour ahead of the Greens overall, while other recent surveys indicate that the Green surge seen earlier in 2026 has weakened since Andy Burnham replaced Keir Starmer as prime minister.
The latest evidence therefore points to a highly volatile political environment rather than a settled shift in favour of the Greens.
Greens make major gains in urban areas
One of the most significant recent surveys examined voting intentions specifically in urban constituencies.
Research by ThinkLabour found that the Green Party had moved to within four points of Labour in urban areas, representing a substantial change compared with the 2024 general election.
The research suggested that the Greens could potentially become competitive in dozens of urban constituencies if their support remained at similar levels at a future general election. The study identified particular pressure on Labour in cities and metropolitan areas where younger and more progressive voters have increasingly considered alternatives to the governing party.
That finding is particularly relevant because Labour has traditionally depended heavily on support in Britain’s urban centres.
If a significant proportion of Labour voters moved to the Greens, the effect would not simply be a reduction in Labour’s national vote share. Under Britain’s first-past-the-post system, relatively small changes in individual constituencies can determine whether a party retains or loses a parliamentary seat.
The Greens’ challenge is therefore concentrated in areas where Labour has historically built substantial support.
But the national picture tells a different story
The latest national polling does not show the Greens overtaking Labour across Britain.
A YouGov voting-intention poll conducted on September 13 and 14 put Labour and Reform UK both on 23%, with the Conservatives on 20%, the Liberal Democrats on 13% and the Greens on 11%.
Another YouGov poll conducted on September 20 and 21 showed Labour on 23%, Reform on 21%, the Conservatives on 21%, the Greens on 14% and the Liberal Democrats on 12%.
The second survey was notable because the Greens gained three points compared with the previous YouGov poll.
But even at 14%, the Greens remained below Labour’s 23%.
That distinction matters.
The headline about the Greens overtaking Labour reflects particular polling evidence or a specific demographic or geographical sample rather than the overall national voting-intention picture.
A changing relationship between Labour and the Greens
The relationship between Labour and the Greens has changed considerably since the 2024 general election.
The Greens won four parliamentary seats in 2024, but the party’s support subsequently increased sharply during 2025 and early 2026.
Zack Polanski’s election as Green leader gave the party a more prominent national profile, while Labour faced criticism from parts of its traditional support base over taxation, public services, immigration, environmental policy and the government’s approach to the economy.
The Greens capitalised on some of that dissatisfaction.
The party’s breakthrough victory in the Gorton and Denton by-election was particularly important.
Green candidate Hannah Spencer won 14,980 votes, or 40.7%, defeating Reform candidate Matt Goodwin by 4,402 votes. Labour finished third with 9,364 votes.
The result demonstrated that the Greens could win in a constituency where Labour had previously been dominant.
But by-elections have unique circumstances, and the result cannot automatically be treated as a prediction of a future general election.
Burnham changes the equation
One of the biggest developments since the Greens’ earlier surge has been the change in Labour’s leadership.
Andy Burnham replaced Keir Starmer as prime minister and Labour leader, bringing a different political profile to the party.
Recent polling suggests that the change has helped Labour recover some support among voters who had previously moved towards the Greens.
An Opinium poll reported by The Observer found that almost 70% of people who voted Labour at the 2024 election now intended to vote Labour again, compared with 52% in February when Starmer was still prime minister.
The proportion of previous Labour voters intending to support the Greens reportedly fell from 18.5% to 8%.
Among 18-to-34-year-olds, Green support also fell from 28.6% around the local elections to 19.7%, while Labour support among that age group increased from 23.3% to 33.5%.
Those figures provide an important counterpoint to claims that the Greens are simply continuing to advance at Labour’s expense.
Instead, the evidence suggests that the political movement is fluid.
Some voters who left Labour under Starmer appear to have reconsidered their position under Burnham, while the Greens continue to retain a substantial pool of support.
Polanski still wants to challenge Labour
For Zack Polanski, the objective is not simply to increase the Green vote.
He has repeatedly presented the Greens as a potential alternative to Labour on the left of British politics.
The party’s ambition has increasingly been to compete for seats that Labour traditionally regarded as safe.
The ThinkLabour research is therefore significant because it suggests that the Greens’ strongest opportunities could lie in urban constituencies rather than being evenly distributed across the country.
That matters electorally.
A party can win a relatively modest national vote share while securing several parliamentary seats if its support is concentrated in particular constituencies.
Conversely, a party can receive millions of votes but win relatively few seats if its support is spread thinly.
The Greens are attempting to build concentrated support in places where their political message resonates most strongly.
Labour faces pressure from both sides
The challenge for Labour is not confined to the Greens.
Reform UK remains a significant competitor, particularly in areas where Labour has historically relied on working-class voters.
Recent polling illustrates the three-way nature of the current contest.
YouGov’s September 20-21 survey put Labour on 23%, Reform on 21% and the Conservatives on 21%, with the Greens on 14%.
Ipsos polling conducted between September 10 and 15 similarly found Labour four points ahead of Reform nationally, while also finding significant dissatisfaction with the government.
This creates a difficult electoral environment in which Labour can lose votes to different parties for different reasons.
Some progressive voters may move towards the Greens, while others concerned about immigration, taxation or national identity may consider Reform.
The Conservatives are also attempting to recover voters who previously supported Reform.
That fragmentation makes the next election unusually difficult to interpret through a simple Labour-versus-Reform framework.
Tactical voting could change the picture
Another major factor is tactical voting.
New YouGov research examining possible two-party constituency contests found that Labour now led the Greens by 27% to 21% when voters were asked to choose between only those two parties.
That represented a reversal from February, when the Greens had held a 30%-20% advantage in the same hypothetical contest.
The survey also found substantial willingness among voters to switch parties tactically depending on which candidates were competitive locally.
That means a voter who currently supports the Greens nationally could still vote Labour in a constituency where Labour and another party were the only realistic contenders.
The reverse could also occur.
Consequently, national voting intention alone cannot establish how many seats the Greens might eventually win.
The wider polling picture
Survation’s latest MRP research for 38 Degrees further illustrates the volatility.
The research, based on 8,124 adults surveyed between August 20 and September 4, found that the traditional Labour-Conservative top-two contest had become much less common across Westminster constituencies.
Survation estimated that only around 10% of seats would now feature Labour and Conservatives as the two leading parties, compared with a much larger proportion in previous elections.
That is an important development.
It means that Britain’s political system is no longer easily described as a straightforward contest between two established parties.
Reform, the Greens, Liberal Democrats and nationalist parties are all capable of becoming significant contenders in particular constituencies.
For Labour, this makes maintaining a broad coalition of voters especially important.
What it means for Starmer’s legacy
Although Keir Starmer is no longer prime minister, headlines about the Greens’ rise remain closely connected to his time in Downing Street.
The Green surge developed during a period when Labour struggled to maintain support among some younger and more left-leaning voters.
Under Burnham, however, the party has shown signs of recovering some of those voters.
The Observer’s polling suggests that the flow of Labour voters towards the Greens has fallen substantially since Burnham took office.
That does not mean the Green challenge has disappeared.
The party remains significantly stronger than it was before its recent surge, and its performance in urban constituencies continues to attract attention.
Polanski’s strategy is based on turning that support into parliamentary representation.
A fragmented electoral landscape
The latest polling therefore presents several competing stories.
The Greens have made major gains in certain urban areas and have demonstrated through Gorton and Denton that they can win a Westminster seat outside their traditional strongest areas.
At the same time, national polling still places Labour ahead of the Greens, while recent surveys suggest that Burnham has recovered support from some voters who previously moved towards Polanski’s party.
For the Greens, the challenge is converting a concentrated surge into a durable electoral coalition.
For Labour, the challenge is preventing progressive voters from splitting between Labour and the Greens while simultaneously defending constituencies against Reform and the Conservatives.
And for voters, the increasingly fragmented party system means that the eventual parliamentary picture may depend heavily on local contests rather than national percentages alone.
The phrase “nightmare for Keir Starmer” therefore captures the political drama surrounding the Greens’ rise, but the polling evidence is more nuanced.
The Greens have undoubtedly become a serious competitor for Labour in some parts of Britain. Yet the most recent national figures do not show them overtaking Labour across the country.
Instead, Britain appears to be entering a period in which Labour, Reform, the Conservatives and Greens are all competing for different parts of the electorate.
The crucial question is not simply whether the Greens can overtake Labour in a particular poll.
It is whether they can sustain that support, concentrate it effectively in winnable constituencies and persuade voters who once regarded Labour as their natural political home to make a permanent change.
That contest is already reshaping the British political landscape.