Reform UK leader Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch (Image: -)

Mr Farage believes the Conservatives will suffer devastating losses across the country, while Reform will make gains.

There’s talk of Reform winning control of Wales, a former Labour stronghold, as well as cities such as Birmingham.

“The only real opposition to socialism, leftism, Islamism is Reform. And if that moment comes, there’ll be a large chunk of Conservative voters that will switch.”

Right now, the right and centre-right vote remains split between Reform and the Conservatives, even though Reform is in the lead. And if that continues, Labour could manage to remain in power – despite all the scandals, splits and mistakes engulfing the government.

So Reform’s victory over the Tories has to happen first. After that, it can go on to defeat Labour.

But Mr Farage has a problem. As he acknowledged, some experts, and some sections of the media, believe we are seeing a “Kemi bounce”. In other words, things might be going in the wrong direction for Reform. They are getting slightly less popular, while the Tories are making progress.

This is partly because people at Westminster have become increasingly impressed by Kemi Badenoch, who had a rocky start as Tory leader. Week after week, she gets the better of Sir Keir Starmer in the House of Commons. She’s announced some popular policies, like abolishing stamp duty. She sounds impressive when she delivers speeches.

That’s the view among many politicians and journalists, at least, and Mr Farage fears it might start to influence the public. He wants to bring it to an end.

Secondly, there is some evidence that support for Reform really has fallen – even though it remains clearly the most popular party.

Writing in his email newsletter, the former BBC journalist said: “Nigel Farage’s ratings have slipped, and signs have multiplied of voters’ appetite to vote tactically to defeat Reform candidates … Reform has slipped back five points since its peak.”

Of course, other voters like them more. There are millions who agree with Reform, and want Nigel to be Prime Minister. But he can be a divisive figure.

So Mr Farage doesn’t have victory in the bag. He insists the “Kemi bounce” has been imagined by over-excited journalists, but that remains to be seen.

May 8, however, could be the day that Nigel is proved right. We may learn that the Conservative Party really is finished – and Nigel is on his way to Number 10. It all depends on what voters choose to do on May  7

Nigel Farage just named the date he’ll kill off the Tories – but he’s got one big problem

Nigel Farage has repeatedly argued that the Conservative Party is facing an existential challenge from Reform UK, and he has already identified key election dates that he believes could determine the future of the British right.

But as Reform attempts to maintain pressure on the Conservatives, the political landscape has become considerably more complicated.

Farage previously set 7 May 2026 as a symbolic deadline for Conservative MPs considering defecting to Reform. He warned that the local and devolved elections that day could mark the point at which the Conservatives ceased to function as a genuinely national political force. Yet the outcome did not produce the mass Conservative defections that Reform had anticipated.

Now, attention has shifted towards the next general election, currently expected in 2029 unless an earlier contest is called.

That is where Farage faces his biggest problem: the Conservatives have shown signs that they can recover support from some voters who previously moved towards Reform.

Farage’s timetable for the Conservative Party

Farage’s argument is straightforward.

Reform wants to replace the Conservatives as the main party of the political right. The party has spent the past two years attempting to demonstrate that it can win votes not only in traditionally Conservative constituencies, but also in areas where Labour has historically been dominant.

After the May 2026 local elections, Farage described the results as evidence of a fundamental realignment in British politics. Reform itself said the Conservatives had been heavily defeated in traditional strongholds and argued that the old two-party system was breaking down.

That argument was reinforced by Reform’s victory in a September local by-election in East Markham, in Robert Jenrick’s Newark constituency.

Reform said its candidate won almost half of the vote, while the Conservatives finished second. Farage subsequently declared that the Conservative Party was “dead”. However, that statement was a political characterisation rather than an established description of the party’s legal or organisational status.

The next major test will therefore be the general election.

The precise date is not fixed. But political reporting has generally treated 2029 as the likely timing of the next Westminster election if parliament runs its normal course. The Guardian recently noted 2029 as the likely date and reported that Farage intends to fight that election.

For Farage, that contest could represent the moment when his long-running challenge to Conservative dominance either reaches its most important stage or encounters a different political reality.

The big problem: the Tories are fighting back

The difficulty for Reform is that Conservative support has not simply disappeared.

A YouGov poll conducted on September 20 and 21 found the Conservatives and Reform both on 21 per cent, while Labour stood on 23 per cent. It was the first time in 18 months that YouGov had recorded the two parties level.

Another poll, conducted by More in Common and reported on September 23, put Labour on 26 per cent, the Conservatives on 23 per cent and Reform on 22 per cent.

That placed Reform behind the Conservatives in that particular poll, although the difference was only one percentage point.

The significance is not that one poll establishes a permanent trend. It does not.

The significance is that the Conservative Party remains capable of competing for voters who might otherwise have been expected to move permanently to Reform.

That makes Farage’s strategy considerably harder.

Why Conservative voters matter so much

Reform’s rise has been closely connected to voters who previously supported the Conservatives.

That creates an unusual relationship between the two parties.

Reform needs Conservative voters if it is to expand its parliamentary presence. But the Conservatives also need to persuade those same voters that they still have a political home within the traditional Conservative Party.

This creates competition over immigration, taxation, regulation, national sovereignty, public spending and the future relationship between Britain and Europe.

Farage has sought to argue that the Conservatives cannot deliver the changes demanded by voters because they remain tied to their record in government.

Reform has particularly attacked the Conservatives over taxation and Net Zero policies.

In June, for example, Farage blamed previous Conservative governments for policies affecting the North Sea oil and gas industry, arguing that Conservative decisions had contributed to the decline of domestic energy production. Reform presented the issue as evidence that the party could no longer credibly claim to represent its traditional voters.

The Conservatives reject the idea that their political future is over.

And the latest polling provides evidence for that position.

Farage’s own problem is becoming harder to ignore

There is another complication for Reform: Farage himself.

For years, Farage has been one of the most recognisable figures on the British political right. His personal profile has been central to Reform’s growth.

But polling in September showed that his personal ratings have weakened.

YouGov reported that 69 per cent of Britons had an unfavourable opinion of Farage, compared with 24 per cent who viewed him favourably. The polling company described the September figure as the highest unfavourability level recorded by its tracker over the previous decade.

That does not necessarily translate directly into votes for or against Reform.

However, it creates an important strategic question.

If Reform’s electoral appeal is strongly associated with Farage personally, then a decline in his personal ratings could become a constraint on the party’s ability to attract voters beyond its existing base.

Sky News election analyst Professor Rob Ford made a similar point earlier in September, noting that Reform’s average support across nine pollsters had fallen from the low thirties in August 2025 to the mid-twenties in August 2026.

Again, polling should not be interpreted as a prediction of the next general election. Voting intentions can change substantially before voters actually cast their ballots.

The question of what happens after Farage

There is also a longer-term issue.

Farage has repeatedly positioned himself as the central figure in Reform’s attempt to reshape British politics. But the party will eventually have to demonstrate that its support can survive beyond one individual.

The Guardian reported in September that Farage had told Reform members he intended to lead the party into the next general election. The newspaper also reported that sources close to him believed the 2029 contest could be his final election if Reform failed to achieve its objectives.

That makes succession another potential problem.

Reform figures such as Richard Tice, Zia Yusuf and Robert Jenrick have all been discussed in connection with the party’s future leadership, although their political backgrounds and relationships with the Reform membership differ considerably.

The question is whether the party can maintain the same coalition of voters without Farage at its centre.

The Conservatives still have a route to survival

The current evidence does not support the idea that the Conservatives have already ceased to be a major political force.

The party has experienced serious electoral losses and faces direct competition from Reform. But recent polling demonstrates that Conservative support remains substantial.

The Conservatives drawing level with Reform in YouGov’s September poll is particularly significant because it shows that the contest on the right is not settled.

The Conservatives also have an established national organisation, a long-standing parliamentary presence and a recognised party structure.

Reform, meanwhile, is attempting to transform rapid electoral growth into a durable political organisation. The Guardian reported recently that the party has received major donations and is planning a substantial expansion of its professional campaign operation, while internal disagreements have emerged over how the money should be spent.

That illustrates the scale of the challenge.

Winning elections is one task. Building a sustainable national political organisation capable of competing across hundreds of constituencies is another.

2029 could be crucial — but it is not predetermined

Farage’s long-term objective is clear: Reform wants to become a central force in British politics and, ultimately, challenge for government.

The Conservatives are equally clear that they intend to remain a major national party.

That means the period leading to the next general election is likely to involve continued competition between the two parties for overlapping groups of voters.

The political battle will not be decided simply by whether Reform gains more support than the Conservatives in one poll, or whether the Conservatives lose another council seat.

It will depend on whether each party can build a broad enough coalition to win parliamentary constituencies under Britain’s electoral system.

For Farage, therefore, the date may be clear in broad terms.

The next general election could be the moment when Reform attempts to complete the transformation of the British right that he has been predicting for years.

But his “big problem” is equally clear: the Conservative Party is still alive, still polling at a significant level, and still capable of winning back voters who once appeared to be moving permanently towards Reform.

Until that changes, predictions about the Conservatives’ demise remain political claims rather than settled facts.

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