Nigel Farage and Zack Polanski are both targeting London councils (Image: Getty)

Zack Polanski and Nigel Farage could be set for major gains in London after a new poll predicted the Greens and Reform UK could seize multiple councils on May 7. Data analysis from YouGov shows that Labour, currently embroiled in the Lord Mandelson scandal, could face massive losses in the upcoming local elections.

Pitching himself as a Left-wing alternative to Sir Keir Starmer‘s reeling party, Mr Polanski’s Greens are forecast to eat away at Labour’s once rock-solid London vote. Mr Farage is also expected to hoover up support in Tory-leaning outer boroughs, as well as making gains in some Labour-held authorities like Barking and Dagenham.

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YouGov says the results could be extremely close in many boroughs, coming down to just a few hundred votes or even potentially leaving parties unable to take an outright majority in some areas.

In 10 areas up for election, the poll reveals that the margin of victory could be as little as 2%. In a further five areas, that margin could be at 5%, which experts say is due to multi-party politics and “wider patterns of fragmentation” in how people vote.

Reform is predicted to take Havering, but is in a neck-and-neck race with the Conservatives for control of Bexley.

Elsewhere, Mr Polanski’s party is snapping at the heels of Labour in Brent, Ealing, Hackney, Haringey, Hounslow, Lambeth, Lewisham, Newham and Waltham Forest.

Overall predictions show the Labour Party could lose six councils, the Conservatives dropping one, and the Liberal Democrats gaining one.

London borough council map election results vote

The final results could come down to just a few hundred votes (Image: YouGov)

Reform and the Greens will gain three and four respectively, according to the pollsters.

Mr Polanski said the result was “far from guaranteed” and urged activists to “be out speaking to people everywhere in our communities”.

Taking aim at what he described as “vested interests” represented by rival parties, he told supporters “we can only get these sorts of results with your help”.

Speaking to the Daily Express on a visit to Bexley earlier this month, Mr Farage said he “wasn’t taking anything for granted” and was “fighting” for every vote.

His party is framing the election as a referendum on Sir Keir Starmer after a series of scandals rocked the Prime Minister, including the recent Mandelson vetting row.

A Conservative spokesman said the “only poll that matters is the one on polling day”. Labour was approached for comment.

Bombshell Poll Shows Reform and Greens Challenge Labour Across London

A major polling projection has highlighted the scale of the electoral challenge facing Labour across London, with Reform UK and the Green Party making significant advances in different parts of the capital.

The headline claim that Reform and the Greens could “annihilate” Labour is political language rather than a literal description of the polling. The underlying numbers nevertheless point to a fragmented London electorate in which Labour faces challenges from both the right and the left.

A More in Common model published ahead of the May 2026 London local elections found Labour still leading the vote in the largest number of London boroughs, but with its support substantially reduced compared with the previous local elections. The model estimated Labour would lead in 21 of the capital’s 32 boroughs, while the Greens were projected to be the second-placed party in 16 Labour-held boroughs. Reform was meanwhile projected to make particularly strong gains in outer London.

YouGov’s separate London MRP also identified a major shift. Its central projection put Labour on 26% across London, followed by the Greens on 22%, the Conservatives on 17% and Reform UK on 14%. YouGov stressed that its model was designed to estimate vote shares rather than directly predict which party would control each council.

The figures illustrate why London has become an important battleground for the three parties.

Labour faces pressure from two directions

For much of the recent political era, Labour has been the dominant force in London politics.

The 2026 projections suggested that this dominance could be weakened even if Labour remained the largest party overall.

The important feature of the polling was not simply the decline in Labour’s vote share. It was the direction in which former Labour support appeared to be moving.

The Greens were making particularly strong progress in inner London, while Reform was gaining ground in parts of outer London where Conservative support has traditionally been stronger.

More in Common described the capital as being under pressure “on all sides”. Its model estimated that Labour’s London-wide vote share had fallen by 15 percentage points compared with the 2024 general election, while the Conservatives had fallen by four points. At the same time, Green support was estimated to have increased by 10 points and Reform’s by six.

This creates a very different political map from the traditional Labour-versus-Conservative contest.

In several inner-London boroughs, the principal challenger to Labour is now the Greens.

In parts of outer London, Reform has emerged as a significant challenger to the Conservatives and, in some areas, Labour.

The Green challenge

The Green Party’s growth is particularly notable in London’s inner boroughs.

More in Common’s model estimated that the Greens could lead the vote in Hackney for the first time, with 34% compared with Labour’s 31%. The Greens were also within two percentage points of Labour in Islington, Lambeth and Lewisham.

These are not marginal developments.

Hackney, Islington, Lambeth and Lewisham have historically been important parts of Labour’s London electoral base. A strong Green performance in these areas therefore has implications beyond the number of councillors won.

It suggests that some voters who remain broadly on the left may be considering an alternative to Labour rather than moving directly to the Conservatives or Reform.

YouGov’s analysis provides further evidence of that pattern.

Its examination of the 2026 local elections found that among people who had voted Labour in the 2024 general election and then voted in the 2026 council elections, 22% switched to the Greens, compared with 6% who switched to Reform UK.

That does not mean every Labour voter nationally is moving toward the Greens. The YouGov analysis specifically concerned voters who participated in the local elections, and the pattern was influenced by the concentration of Green-friendly urban areas among the contests taking place.

Nevertheless, the figures help explain why the Greens have become such an important competitor to Labour in London.

Reform’s outer-London breakthrough

Reform’s pattern is different.

While the Greens have been strongest in inner London, Reform’s strongest projected performances have been concentrated in the outer boroughs.

More in Common estimated that Reform could lead the vote in Havering with 32.8%, while the party was almost level with the Conservatives in Bexley, where the model put the Conservatives on 30.7% and Reform on 30.4%.

Reform was also projected to perform strongly in Barking and Dagenham, where its estimated vote share was 24.3%, and in Bromley, where it was estimated at 21.3%.

The implications are significant because Reform’s success in London would not simply involve taking votes from the Conservatives.

The party’s presence in Barking and Dagenham illustrates the possibility of competing directly for voters in areas that have historically been Labour territory.

YouGov’s April MRP similarly projected Reform to make substantial gains in outer London and identified Barking and Dagenham as a particularly notable potential breakthrough.

Why the word “annihilate” needs caution

The headline language can easily obscure what the polling actually shows.

Neither of the major London MRP studies demonstrated that Labour would be eliminated from the capital.

More in Common’s model still had Labour leading the vote in 21 of 32 boroughs.

YouGov’s central projection likewise placed Labour first on London-wide vote share, although its estimated 26% represented a substantial decline from the party’s previous position.

The picture is therefore one of fragmentation rather than the disappearance of Labour.

The distinction matters because London uses different electoral arrangements at different levels, and vote share does not translate automatically into council control.

YouGov specifically warned that its model was estimating vote shares and that the party receiving the highest vote share in a borough would not necessarily win overall control of that council.

This is particularly important when interpreting MRP projections.

A party can increase its vote share substantially without winning a large number of seats if its support is spread inefficiently across wards.

A three-way political realignment

The most striking aspect of the London polling is therefore the emergence of a three-way contest.

Labour remains the largest force in much of the capital.

The Greens have developed a stronger challenge in inner London.

Reform has established a significant presence in outer London.

The Conservatives, meanwhile, remain competitive in several areas but face pressure from Reform in parts of their traditional electoral territory.

More in Common estimated that the Conservatives would lead in only five boroughs, while the Liberal Democrats were projected to lead in three and other parties or independents in one.

That distribution demonstrates how fragmented London’s political landscape has become.

The old assumption that a Labour vote automatically translated into a Labour council, or that a Conservative vote would remain within the Conservative column, is becoming less reliable.

What it means for Labour

For Labour, the Green challenge presents a different political problem from Reform’s rise.

Reform’s appeal can draw voters away from Labour on issues including immigration, taxation and dissatisfaction with national government.

The Green challenge can operate differently, particularly among voters who believe Labour has moved too far toward the political centre or has not gone far enough on environmental and economic issues.

That division could make Labour’s electoral coalition more difficult to maintain.

A Survation poll of Labour members reported earlier in 2026 found that 40% considered the Greens the party’s biggest electoral threat, compared with 47% who identified Reform UK. The figures represented a significant increase in concern about the Green Party among Labour members.

The figures are about Labour members rather than the wider electorate, so they should not be interpreted as a general measure of voter opinion.

They nevertheless demonstrate the extent to which the Green challenge has entered Labour’s internal political debate.

London as a test for Reform

For Reform UK, London presents both an opportunity and a challenge.

The party has historically had a weaker organisational and electoral base in the capital than in some parts of England outside London.

The 2026 MRP projections suggested that this could change.

More in Common estimated Reform’s London-wide support at 14.5%, compared with 15% in its own model for the Conservatives and 28% for Labour.

YouGov’s central estimate was similar, placing Reform at 14% across London.

The party’s strongest prospects were concentrated geographically rather than evenly distributed throughout the capital.

That matters because Reform would need sustained local organisation, credible candidates and continued voter support if polling gains were to translate into lasting council representation.

The wider political picture

The London developments also fit into a broader national pattern.

The 2026 local elections saw Labour suffer significant losses while Reform and the Greens made gains. Reuters reported that Labour suffered heavy losses in England alongside gains for Reform and the Greens.

YouGov subsequently found that only 46% of people who had voted Labour in the 2024 general election and then voted in the 2026 local elections remained with Labour, while 22% switched to the Greens and 6% to Reform.

These figures do not establish what voters will do at a future general election.

They do, however, provide evidence that the political loyalties which once gave Labour a strong position in many urban areas have become more fluid.

A changing London electorate

The most important message from the polling is not that Reform and the Greens have eliminated Labour.

They have not.

Instead, the data show a London electorate in which Labour faces competing challenges from opposite directions.

The Greens are particularly competitive in inner London, while Reform has established a stronger position in parts of outer London. The Conservatives remain a significant force in several boroughs, and the Liberal Democrats continue to dominate parts of south-west London.

That makes London’s political landscape considerably more fragmented than it was during previous elections.

Whether these changes represent a temporary reaction to national politics or a longer-term realignment remains an open question.

The polling provides evidence of substantial movement, but projections are not election results. Voters can change their minds, candidates can alter local contests, and turnout can reshape the outcome.

For Labour, the figures underline the scale of competition it faces in the capital. For Reform and the Greens, they demonstrate opportunities to expand beyond their traditional bases.

The phrase “annihilate Labour” may make for a dramatic headline, but the underlying story is more nuanced: London is becoming a multi-party battleground, and Labour’s once-dominant position is being challenged simultaneously by Reform on the right and the Greens on the left.

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